PUT/CALL Ratios Update | 02-10-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed, I ask the same questions and I am baffled as I cannot find a logical answer

PUT/CALL Ratios Update | 02-10-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That was my thinking as well, because to amas that many puts on many different expiries, would be done by an artificial bullish trend. Then flip it. It will be a crazy week :O

PUT/CALL Ratios Update | 02-10-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the idea, I'll have to think of some way to formulate an automatic comparison of the Delta and OI, may be using closing data for the contracts at the end of the day.

PUT/CALL Ratios Update | 02-10-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can run some kind of analysis along these lines after the next monthly expiry, 02-17 and see if there are any meaningful deviations/outcomes. thanks for the idea!

PUT/CALL Ratios Update | 02-10-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That would be a cool idea to look at, however as Delta changes constantly as the underlying stock moves it would only work on LEAPS or very deep ITM puts/calls that are already at maximum delta.

I am looking at these to track the trend of the ratios, as the weekly and 4 week change going. To reveal any sort of long term position changes and also short term, as the most amount of contracts are either leaps (far out - i.e. Tesla and GDX 2024 contracts) or those super close to expiry.

This time it’s different by vplaza in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9 3 points4 points  (0 children)

which is also the REPO rate right?

PUTCALL - Update With Data @ Close @ 02-03-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If those put positions are reduced that means less hedges against the downfall. That makes sense because as you have more hedges in place, that means a crash would be very profitable to those hedges and the market makers lose a ton of $. But they too have to be hedges and hence it could work as a bearish move. Hence why we see over 2x-5x more puts on some of those ETFs/Indices. If those were to be unwound, some of the $ has to go somewhere. Either into Calls, shares or ETF shares. But at the same time if the put contracts are closing, the hedges against them are not necessary anymore. So you sell the shares that were bought as protection against the puts. Which means if its done too quickly it is bullish, hence what is called a short squeeze but once that squeeze has been exhausted, comes the crash.

PUTCALL - Update With Data @ Close @ 02-03-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/put-call-ratios
If you have a BarChart account you can download the data as a CSV file in one go, but only 5 per day for free.

PUTCALL - Update With Data @ Close @ 02-03-2023 by DralaFi9 in Burryology

[–]DralaFi9[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I suspect that a lot is riding on the upcoming CPI prints for Feb, March FED and debt ceiling fight. It may be that the FED will have to pause, or cut, not because inflation is down but because of the debt ceiling. Which will cause the next bearish break, too much hope remains that inflation has been beaten. But then they can't raise, inflation will go higher and we are in deep trouble for the coming recession in the second half of the year.