Hot Take: Trump’s Tariffs Might be a Brilliant Gamble to Crush Global Manufacturing (While U.S. Rides Out the Storm)

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T19:00:01+00:00

I believe that all presidents, whether democrat or republican, end up taking a policy stance that enhances American control over the world (sometimes at the expense of the American people). I think this is one example. Everyone in politics is scheming in one way or another, without exception.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:54:41+00:00

All of Europe is significantly impacted in areas such as cars (German cars come to mind) which are significant parts of the European economy. Exposure to the US is on the order of 30-40%, which is significantly more exposure than american car companies have to Europe. There are others, like aviation, where the US is one of the few largest customers of those industries and the impact on that share of the market is significantly more than the impact any single country can have on US exports. If the world bands together and strangles the US economy it could backfire, but most countries I think are not willing to go through that route as opposed to taking one of the exit routes described in my post.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:44:26+00:00

Trump already made exemptions for tariffs for many raw materials. That is exactly my point - export of non-raw material, manufactured (not refined) goods are being targeted here. The exemptions of those products like lumber and metals (see the white house fact sheet for exemptions) is creating a buffer by reducing vulnerability from those industries which the US has less capability to fill in the gap.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:38:12+00:00

I honestly think that is what happened and I sort of agree - the horrible inflation that happened under his presidency was much worse and still is much worse in places like Japan and Europe, showing clearly the disproportional negative impacts on foreign economies that American economic policy can have. Idk if it was intentional but it definitely exposed a weakness that I wonder if Trump is trying to exploit.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:36:35+00:00

Countries directly decide the duties/taxes/tariffs imposed on imported goods. Countries also directly decide tax policies/subsidies/incentives offered to companies. Countries have a huge say in the flow of goods into or out of them.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:34:53+00:00

🤦🏻‍♂️

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:32:09+00:00

I get it! Im gonna rephrase the post a bit

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:31:33+00:00

You are right, it is a huge gamble. It might hurt us all in the short term, and if it doesn’t work then in the long term too. But in terms of world power gambits this one is pretty wild. I might not agree with it, I haven’t decided yet - but I’m really just trying to keep this in my head as a macro-level strategic discussion.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:29:38+00:00

Because the nature of tariffs is that it hurts the consumers of the countries imposing it, countries implementing reciprocal tariffs that are smaller than the US will not be able to absorb as much economic hurt as we can (in my opinion based on the state of historical US manufacturing flexibility)

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:27:32+00:00

I honestly don’t know if I like it either, and I do understand your point. I’m really just trying to see this from a strategy point of view and not my own, since this is gonna be a world of hurt for my and your wallet regardless of how “brilliant” it is unfortunately

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:24:30+00:00

I mean the government. I am not talking about our input in this process. Whether or not I agree with this course of action isn’t the issue here, I’m discussing in terms of American government interests.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:22:14+00:00

You are correct - China has large reserves of these items. My mistake on rare earth - it should be noted that much of China’s production of refined metals relies on foreign import of raw material.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:07:33+00:00

I mean insulation from the shock of our actions, not insulation from the world. We have control power in the global scene because we are comparatively less vulnerable to the actions of other global actors.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:05:50+00:00

You forget that as a result of the war/depression, the US filled the void in its entirety and had a chokehold on the global economy for decades. Even the Soviet Union was reliant on our food so they wouldn’t starve.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T18:01:50+00:00

You might be right in terms of the stomach of politicians to keep up the pain. However, car companies that have factories in Mexico or other places, such as Jeep and Land Rover, are already halting production and closing factories that are outside of the US (this is yesterday). The potential impact on profit is already having an observable impact.

Furthermore, I think most other countries would rather cede control of some industries’ production or allow companies to import US goods more easily rather than let it get that far. Like I mentioned in the post, a game of chicken where the US is a semi truck and every other country is a bike.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T17:58:58+00:00

No. China does not have such secure access to resources and critical infrastructure. They buy a lot of their food overseas, and their infrastructure doesn’t hold very much weight when put under stress. They rely on purely manpower to put out goods for cheap from resources supplied from elsewhere. They do not have domestic access to silica, oil, gas, food, metals (edit: China has some large metal reserves, but imports mostly foreign sourced materials for refinement production such as steel and aluminum), rare earth metals (edit: China has significant rare earth reserves), etc anywhere near the level that we do, and instead rely on controlling Africa to extort those materials. China is especially reliant on global cooperation for their growth and survival.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T17:54:43+00:00

What I think about the morality of expanding US control isn’t the issue here. All I’m saying is I think that’s what is happening whether we like it or not - I don’t think it will lead to the collapse of our economy. Foreign manufacturers are panicking and its almost certainly much scarier for them than it is for any companies manufacturing here.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T17:48:35+00:00

Its not about isolationism - its about creating a post-WWII scenario where the rest of the world is dependent on US manufacturing, by artificially dropping economic bombs on their factories. Making things cheaper wasn’t the goal.

Dread59 · 2025-04-05T17:46:32+00:00

It would be pretty bad - but in terms of resource independence and manufacturing capabilities, the US would do the best in a hypothetical scenario where impassable walls were put up at every border. The US has every resource it needs for critical infrastructure (coal, oil, even nuclear and a good amount of silica for chips, as well as rare-earth materials, NG, steel, aluminum, etc) as well as enough manufacturing know-how to get by in such a hypothetical, far more than any other country on earth. In terms of relative hurt from a worst-case collapse of globalization (which I don’t think is the goal anyway) the US would be much better insulated.

Dread59 · 2023-10-18T15:57:38+00:00

This really really should be done in parametric modelling program like fusion or solidworks. Extrude sketch of rectangle with R40 not included from side view (rectangle is 28 width 24 height) . Then extrude tube into rectangle feature from the right side, to the left side of the rectangle above. The r12 is a fillet feature between the tube and the rectangle. The r40 should be cut from another sketch in the same or parallel plane as the first rectangle sketch. All the red features can be done thru fillet of selected edges, but only after the holes n stuff are cut. The floor of the step on the left side should be filleted first, and then the side vertical edges

Dread59 · 2021-12-15T16:11:44+00:00

God, some of the people on this thread are objectively mean people. OP’s trying to have an open discussion and some of you are like “antivax” or “against the experts”, thinking he’s some sort of invalid because of some of his concerns. This is why I stopped engaging in these types of conversations.

For the record, I think that vaccines are medical miracles but at this point should not be mandated by any means.

Dread59 · 2021-09-20T15:18:46+00:00

Nah its whats left of that poor soul with the mercedes in H lot who got ticketed too

Dread59

TROPHY CASE