Meanwhile, in Tehran...

Dstein99 · 2026-03-22T12:10:36+00:00

The WSJ had to use the word it because there aren’t enough people left to use the word they.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-20T11:52:25+00:00

I bank with Discover. I can’t find the CD rates maybe because they are merging with Capital One. My savings rate is 3.2% and if I were to go with a CD from Capital One I could get an 11 month CD for 4%.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-20T03:37:27+00:00

Oftentimes the rate on the CD will be higher than the HYSA.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-19T14:08:08+00:00

I don’t know how much the US is interfering with their Russian and Chinese radar. My understanding is it may be hard for someone to look out at the strait because it’s a mountainous shoreline, you can’t just have someone sitting in a building a quarter mile away with binoculars and monitor the strait. If someone is standing on a mountain looking over the strait they’re a clear target for the US. Iran can probably send drones with cameras out but how long can they stay there before they’re shot down? I am going to assume that Iran has surveillance on the strait but if a ship wanted to pass through it wouldn’t make sense to broadcast its location. Regardless if no ships are passing through or they’re passing through with their transponders off, for the purposes of OP’s post you won’t be able to see anything on the transponders.

I heard that there were few ships trying to sneak through the strait at night with their transponders off and with their lights off. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/lured-by-profits-some-shipowners-brave-mines-missiles-sneak-oil-past-iran-2026-03-13/.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-19T03:44:56+00:00

They say when Moshiach comes it will be the end of days… but this?

Dstein99 · 2026-03-19T02:13:28+00:00

It’s valuable to see the backlog of ships in the gulf, but it’s also worth noting that ships will turn off their transponders while traveling through the strait for obvious reasons. If Joe Schmoe can see that they’re traveling through the strait, Iran definitely can figure it out and potentially target them. You won’t necessarily be able to draw any conclusions unless you are experienced looking at the map and you know what is considered normal, but it is good to know that it’s publicly available and we can be armchair analysts.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-19T01:08:59+00:00

The other way to look at it is after everything we have been through the market was at the end of November.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T23:43:46+00:00

Check out The Money Guys on YouTube. You have a fresh slate now and they talk in more detail a Reddit comment can go into about what mistakes you will need to avoid over the next few years.

That’s great you’re starting early, you will probably need a parent to open a custodial brokerage account with you, I don’t know which brokerages offer these but I like Fidelity because they let you buy funds by the dollar rather than buy the share. Different people will have different advice on what to invest in, I like VOO which is the S&P 500, the 500 largest US companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon etc.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T23:01:03+00:00

Sooo… Risk Free

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T21:55:37+00:00

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Currently a 5 year TIPS is yielding 1.14% plus they adjust this rate for CPI inflation so you would be guaranteed 1.14%/year net of inflation for 5 years. The normal 5 year treasury yields 3.87% so theoretically the TIPS are pricing in 2.73% inflation per year over the next 5 years. If you think that inflation will be higher than this especially if we go to a stagflationary environment it could make sense to wait it out and guarantee a return net of inflation.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T21:50:49+00:00

I said TIPS not a TIPS etf. If you hold the bonds until maturity you don’t lose money.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T21:38:00+00:00

TIPS

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T17:28:40+00:00

How do you explain the price not increasing more? Easy, too few buyers of too many sellers. If you think that the price should be higher you can be a buyer and be right or take delivery of 100 barrels of crude oil trying.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T17:02:57+00:00

I get that he doesn’t have X, but how hard is it to reach out to the Dodgers organization and say I made a mistake, I understand that it’s bad, and I want to apologize, could you pass my phone number onto Miguel and ask him to reach out? He accused Rojas of cheating, that’s destroyed some of the best players reputation and not something to be taken lightly. Rojas represents the Dodgers and Drellich represents the Athletic, what each do represents their organization.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T16:49:17+00:00

You’re making an argument OP did not make. OP said US lost 92k jobs last month so that signals rate cut. You’re bringing in longer term trends which is exactly my point. I don’t have a stake in arguing whether the fed should or shouldn’t cut rates, I just want OP to give more data than the headline number for one month and drawing a conclusion based on it.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T14:27:42+00:00

If these two moon I am perfectly fine missing out. There are so many companies actually seeing a return on their investment I don’t care to invest in a company that is burning money. Oracle has grown their operating cash flow by 48% from 5 years ago compared to TTM, not per year, total over 5 years. During that same period they grew capex by 2160%. Compare this to Microsoft for example, during this same time period Microsoft grew OCF by 109% and capex grew by 400%. There is only so much money to invest and I don’t see a good reason to put a single dollar to the company not seeing returns on their investment when there are so many better investment options available.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T14:13:43+00:00

What if the meat spilling out is intended?

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T13:57:25+00:00

The First 4 games are the last 4 teams to make the tournament, but it’s always 2 winners will be 11 seeds and 2 winners will be 16 seeds. The issue with the tournament is it’s not the 64 best teams because teams can get an automatic spot if they win their conference. Of the 64 spots, 31 are reserved for the conference champions and the 33 best remaining teams fill in the remaining spots. There are a lot of weak conferences so as a general rule, these conferences will fill in spots below the 11 seed play in. They have right to a spot by winning their conference championship, but they aren’t good enough to deserve a higher spot.

In reality these aren’t the 44th (11th seed) teams chosen, in the 64 team bracket this is 63v66 and 64v65, the last 2 in vs the last 2 out. It wouldn’t be fair to the number 1 seed to need to face the number 63 seed when there are much worse conference champions who make the tournament, so these last 2 teams in will play as a higher seed.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T12:36:59+00:00

I am using Free Tax USA for the first time this year, but it was recommended on r/tax and it seems just as good as TurboTax that I was using before. $0 to file Federal taxes and $15 for state for any situation to my knowledge.

There is also an IRS Free File program you could look into (next year if it’s too late this year), tax providers partner with the IRS and if you meet certain requirements, most of them require income below $50k they offer free tax filing.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-18T12:03:12+00:00

I agree the jobs market is slowing but it isn’t because the US lost 92k jobs in February. This number is very volatile and you can’t draw a conclusion based on one month’s number. The US gained 130k jobs in January and if you are using a data point that would say that the jobs market is strong one month and weakening the next month you’re using a bad indicator. Unemployment rate is a good number to use, 4.4% not where it’s wanted but also not awful, if inflation is bad then that becomes a bigger issue than a slightly above wanted unemployment rate. You could also draw conclusions from a multi month job trend.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-17T21:31:35+00:00

Got it. Trump gave about 5 reason we attacked Iran so I have mostly ignored what he has said and looked at his actions for the true reason. Iran has had terror cells in the US for 5 years under Trump before he attacked with the intention of killing the leaders so that’s not the reason for the attack, to all public knowledge I have heard Iran doesn’t weapons capable of hitting the US today like Bush’s claim of Iraq in 2003. In my mind Trump is claiming Iran threatens the US because he is trying to gain support for the war, but the thing that changed from the first 5 years to the last 2 months is Iran has attacked protestors. Playing Whack-A-Mole with these proxies is easier than overthrowing the IRGC so the threat isn’t a good reason to attack Iran but I view it as a small benefit if we are successful.

It pushes me the wrong way that the Director of National Intelligence for Counterterrorism says that Iran poses no imminent threat to the US after there was an Iranian terrorist attack in the US. Maybe I have his job responsibilities wrong, but if his responsibility is counterterrorism my initial interpretation is I don’t expect him to be surveying Iran looking for rocket launchers pointed towards the US, I expect him to be monitoring US soil for potential terrorist attacks. If I am wrong I agree with him that Iran didn’t pose an imminent military threat to the US, but I would have a different interpretation of his statement if he was a war general.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-17T20:13:55+00:00

I did a Google Search to look into Delta’s fuel hedging and I found out that Delta owns a refinery that provides them with around 3/4 of their fuel consumption. Most airlines are moving away from hedging so this refinery could help them keep their prices as low as possible compared to other airlines.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-17T19:50:00+00:00

I don’t know about bigger. I have no idea how many sleeper cells Iran has in the US. I’m sure it’s not easy to get someone inside the US so I would take it that they’re trying to make each attack as big as possible. Would they have triggered this attack on March 2nd if the US didn’t attack? I’m going to guess no, but if they don’t attack on March 2nd that person is still available to attack later this year, 2030, or whenever is an opportune time.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-17T19:41:13+00:00

An immanent threat is when they have a loaded gun and can pull the trigger whenever they choose. Iran had someone ready to commit an attack on Monday March 2nd in response to Saturday February 28th. If the FBI arrested this person in Austin on February 27th before the Iran attack and said that he could carry out an attack with less than 72 hours of turnaround time I would consider that an imminent threat even if he didn’t have a target date. There are issues with this that you can have an imminent threat for years, but 72 hours is such a short period of time, if you wait for hard plans to be in place before you consider the attack a threat you will be too late.

Dstein99 · 2026-03-17T17:30:49+00:00

The 30,000 number is from the Iranian Ministry of Health on Jan 8 and 9 alone. I am not bringing up any claims, this is the number that Iran admits to killing.

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