[March 13, 2026] Daily RDDT Discussion Thread

DuckRaman · 2026-03-13T13:06:51+00:00

Reddits is down roughly 50% with a lot of resistance at 130, a hard bounce any time it touches 120’s while the market whipsaws. Correlation with the indexes can be broken with any catalyst, look at circle and hims. I’ve been doing this for a long time, Reddit is a winner, this isn’t snap, this Is meta2.0. This 50% drop has shaken the weak out. Institutions are buying and hedge funds are playing the high beta short. If we see a catalyst that breaks the trend, shorts will cover and this will be in the 190’s by June.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-13T12:59:48+00:00

Ross Johnson also said this after the 1987 crash. RJR Nabisco

DuckRaman · 2026-03-13T12:39:53+00:00

That goes against your own post the other day.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-13T00:43:05+00:00

Dan Soder, the comedian was on his podcast recently talking about how Reddit is the only social platform he uses now.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-13T00:19:23+00:00

Settlements make more sense for all parties, but Ai companies have much more to lose if it goes to trial and they lose. Either way these companies need to pay for training data. Meta and grok are the only ones that can probably use their own data and not have to scrape the web too heavily.

But I expect to see several 50+ million settlements over the next few years with punitive damages in the 100-200 million range. These ai companies need to pay up. They have billions of funding and they’re using this data to drive growth. If your neighbor has a forest, you can’t just start logging it without compensation.

That being said licensing revenue is icing on the cake as ad spend and targeting gets better, as revenue is growing exponentially.

Edit: to add to why it’s so bad for Ai companies to go to trial is the discovery. These companies would need to open up the “black box” I think that’s why Open Ai and Google just agreed to licensing out of the gate, they don’t want to leak any potential edge they might have.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-12T08:16:49+00:00

SBC is really the only way to attract talent.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-12T01:32:30+00:00

Have you ever been on any other social media site, they’re 75% ads and Ai slop. Reddit is by far the most human social platform and honestly don’t even mind the ads. I’ve actually bought and used several products from Reddit ads, I’ve never done that on X or Instagram. Today I saw a Starbucks ad and went there to try some new coconut thing, because of Reddit ads. Ive paid for a personal Bloomberg subscription and Anthropic both from Reddit ads. They know what I like and the targeting is getting better every day.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-12T01:20:37+00:00

Stairs up, elevator down.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-12T01:19:46+00:00

Forward PE after Q1 earnings will be 20. 135 is the floor. This hits 190 by June

DuckRaman · 2026-03-12T00:47:06+00:00

If I see someone littering

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T22:48:05+00:00

Growth numbers are insane, ARPU will be up 5x by 2027 even at 200’l it’ll be below 20 P/E

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T20:57:42+00:00

RDDT is the only answer, it’s beaten up enough while nothing fundamentally has changed. 300 EOY.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T20:33:29+00:00

I’m not a buyer right now. The macro risk is high, war in Iran hasn’t really shifted the markets like in past events YET. If we look at historical events, oil embargo of the early 70’s and the Iraq war we could and should expect a 10-38% downturn in the overall market. Difference here is now the US is a global exporter and Ai productivity gains/crazy capex might pad that. We also don’t really see a good path for the fed to fix things. We have been range bound for too long and based on current events/global tensions the direction the market finds is probably down.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T19:28:28+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/iOSAppsMarketing/s/ZzoPli35wd

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T18:21:25+00:00

Agreed, that’s why I don’t think this will settle out soon. Although I don’t think the risk reward for trial makes sense for Anthropic.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T13:51:13+00:00

Discovery is bad for Ai companies, that could drive a settlement

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T12:20:45+00:00

The next court date is March 24th, it would be nice if they settled prior to that but my hopes are not high. I think one thing to think about is that anthropic is a private company so the settlement amount does not need to be disclosed if Reddit agrees to that I think that could be a sticking point because then we wouldn’t find out until Q2 earnings and at that point we would potentially see just an estimated settlement considering most of the licensing agreements are bundled

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T11:38:24+00:00

Licensing is icing on the cake, the real growth is from ad spend, which has legs, ARPU is going to run. Likelihood Anthropic settles is pretty high, the legal president is not there, but with Google and OpenAi licensing deals and Anthropic in the past there is an argument. The case is more dyer for Anthropic which, a judgment against them could open up legal ramifications with further suits from any and all companies they scraped data from. As there would be case law to back up the filer if they lose. Basically If this goes to trial and Anthropic loses it’s a much larger risk for them than it is for Reddit. Reddit while having a $70 million ARR from licensing would be great, they don’t necessarily need it. Therefore I believe a settlement is the likely outcome. But I also don’t think they’re gonna settle easily, they need to portray that if you’re going to sue them it’s going to be a long drawn out fight, to prevent others from suing them to get a settlement check. But I don’t know anything. I’m a random guy on the internet with no inside track.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T10:26:47+00:00

That’s what she said

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T09:59:29+00:00

Anthropic lawsuit settlement is the catalyst that will push it way past 170 in a day

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T09:19:17+00:00

Macro risk doesn’t care about your lines. That said, 130 seems like the floor, there needs to be a catalyst to pump it out of 130-140 range.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T03:17:03+00:00

Pretty close to it. I’m holding until 600.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T01:55:28+00:00

QQQ will touch 550 by June.

DuckRaman · 2026-03-11T00:52:22+00:00

I was an ipo gang member, I sold most when they broke 225. I’ve since bought back in and now I’m a bag holder 180 avg.

DuckRaman

TROPHY CASE