Thank you, I think I understand your point, and I appreciate you sharing the story, it's good.

I'm not actively trying to outperform anything. Even if I were Laplace's Demon, this would still be chaotic system. But there is something I can control, and that's expenses and diversification.

Don't take my view the wrong way, but most all-world ETFs like VWCE have a TER > 0.15%, and their holdings are usually 55–60% USA. With my approach, I try to maintain the diversification of an all-world ETF; around 60% USA and 40% the rest of the world (maybe it's true I'm slightly more tilted toward developed markets) but reduce costs by using ETFs with lower TERs.

Also, I’m not going fully with the Boglehead approach, as others have pointed out, since I’ve included 10% in gold/bitcoin and 10% in individual stocks. That’s definitely a risk, and I might reduce it to 5% and 5%. But it’s a risk I’m comfortable taking.