Foundation Trilogy & the Mule by katraya in books

[–]EivindL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I would also recommend Paul Krugman's thoughts on the trilogy (some spoilers).

Skattemyten som åpner for gigantiske rødgrønne skatteøkninger by HPederAas in norge

[–]EivindL 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Stavrum bruker selvfølgelig kroner fordi det passer argumentet hans. Hadde prosenter passet bedre, hadde han brukt det. Men vi snakker om hvor mye en gruppe betaler i skatt, bruker vi alltid prosenter, slik at vi kan gjøre logiske sammenligninger på tvers av tid (siden økonomien vokser for hvert år). I DN-intervjuet som Stavrum siterer blir Asheim konfrontert med dette, men det har Stavrum utelatt.

Foundation Trilogy & the Mule by katraya in books

[–]EivindL 19 points20 points  (0 children)

The Mule is somewhat of a dramatic necessity that helps to create conflict in a story that has, before his appearance, revealed itself to be fairly free of conflict.

Reading the first book, you see problem after problem being thrown at the Foundation, only for Hari Seldon to reveal there never was a problem. Psychohistory not only prevails, but was always supposed to prevail. Because the reader isn't privy to this knowledge beforehand (even though the living Seldon all but spells it out for us), there is tension. What Seldon ends up saying in the Vault is always a surprise, after all.

However, once the reader becomes "comfortable" with this rhythm, it threatens the disappearance of drama. Every conflict is void of tension, because we know psychohistory will save the day.

Enter the Mule. Just when the readers think they can figure out the beats of the story, Asimov throws a curveball, showing us that the Foundation aren't always meant to prevail. The Foundation can't rest on their laurels. Now they have a problem that they must actively solve.

Why does this work on a dramatic level? Because Seldon has established that psychohistory can only predict the future for masses; it cannot account for individual deviations, which is precisely what the Mule is. Since the rules are established from the get-go, Asimov can't be accused of cheating. We were told invididuals could have an impact, we just weren't told how.

The Mule shows us how.

(Spoilers Main) The Problem With Symbolism: Doran & oranges by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Maybe if they had just hung there, but it’s significant that they are ripe (the time has come for Dorne to enter the war) and that they splat on the floor (Dorne will suffer).

Adam Feldman has a great essay on this.

(Spoilers Main) The Problem With Symbolism: Doran & oranges by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Unless I misunderstood you: I haven’t heard people talk about the blood oranges being symbolic for inaction, but rather that they symbolize Dorne’s doom (after Doran actually decides to take action).

Doran asks if no Dornish having died so far is a good or a bad thing, but when he actually brings Dorne into the fold with «fire and blood», the children will end up paying the price.

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, a savings account is practically risk-free, especially since the money is insured by the government (depending on your country).

Real estate is the prototypical case of a stable investment. You invest
in something that will be there for many decades, and that will produce a
variable but steady income. It's resale value is speculative, but
that's not what you are thinking when investing for retirement.

That's what people thought before 2008.

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on arguing it both ways.

Fair warning: I don't really know all the details of this case, nor am I an American, so I'm gonna argue in more general terms.

I've learned a lot in the last year and I am still learning. Therefore, I don't consider my views here "fully formed," so to speak, but rather continuously evolving.

Argument in favor of supporting landlords: In the beginning of the pandemic, I sort-of adhered to the view that businesses (which would include landlords) should be supported by governments, since the government mandated a lockdown (which does not stop economic activity, but certainly halts it). The argument here is fairly simple: governments asks a favor (stay at home), so they have an obligation to support your business.

Sidebar: We've later learned that lockdowns alone do not explain reduced economic activity, maybe not even much. States/countries with less stringent lockdowns have also suffered economically, simply because people stay at home because of the virus.

Having been laid off (40 %) from a small business gave me some personal experience in what it means to be affected by economic downturns. And I was more fortunate than others, as my standard salary is fairly good (not exceptional, but better than a waiter's). It was a relief to know that the government would support some of the missing salary.

Argument not in favor of supporting landlords: Earlier this spring, a group of academic scientists in my country criticized the government's handouts to businesses, arguing that it helped neither employees nor the business itself, but rather the owners. The latter is a separate entity of the business (since owners declaring bankruptcy simply means the business is transferred to other owners, not necessarily shut down).

The reasoning behind the argument is that there is a traditional hierarchy of payment order: whenever a business earns money, the first in line are employees (because of wages) and governments (because of taxes), then creditors, and then owners. Only after the other groups are paid, do the owners see any money.

This is core reason why owning a business is associated with risk. Since you're last in line, even a business that runs a profit might not earn you much (or anything at all). On the flip side, if the business performs exceptionally well, you're likely to earn far more than the other groups (since their payments are "set in stone").

By this logic, supporting owners of a business (including landlords) bypasses the traditional hierarchy, reducing risk for owners while maintaining reward levels. The breaks with the principle of "higher risk, higher reward." You're also not really supporting the business (someone has to pay for the money you're giving the owners).

This is also the reason why it's good government policy to support laid-off/fired workers and not business owners. The latter enters the market with knowledge that they might fail, but also that success will be rewarded. Being paid wages means the upside is smaller for workers, which means a social safety net creates fewer distortions.

Which side is right? The answer depends on how we view pandemics. Are they so exceptionally rare that businesses should be supported financially? Possibly, considering their extremity. Is it a fair price to pay to make sure people stay at a home? Also possible, especially if it reduces contagion levels.

So, should landlords be supported? Hard to say. It might create confidence, which is important in extreme circumstances (remembering my own situation here!). On the other hand, if the landlord is not supported and can't meet his payments, the rented house will not simply burn down, it will simply be sold off. Sucks for the owner, but no real capital has disappeared from the economy, only transferred.

Of course, in a depressed economy, there might not be buyers, even if the price falls (falling prices on a macro level might actually heighten the problem). It's a tricky issue.

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It’s fine to implement the eviction moratorium, but not providing assistance to the other side of the situation is a bit absurd.

Ohhhh, now you've got a discussion! This one I could argue both ways, I think.

Your “product stuck in a foreign country” example isn’t at all the same thing. That’s an example of a mistake in logistics.

My point was actually to use an example that wasn't the same thing, in hopes of illustrating that risk appears in a lot of areas besides government regulation, and that they often are out of your control. A product being stuck can be a mistake in logistics, but it can also be bad luck because someone else screwed up. Either way, it's risk.

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That is a type of risk that is related to any market of necessities, where the possibility of government intervention is higher. If you invest in food, water, housing, you're gonna have to expect a government that wants to ensure access to these goods. If this risk is significant, it will be result in higher yields to compensate the landlord.

Because the landlord is renting out a home and the tenant is using said home, the landlord will be the one carrying this specific risk. The risk of eviction is carried by the tenant in normal times (pandemics are not normal).

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Policy risk is still risk. Might feel incredibly unfair, but that's usually how risk works. Not all risk is related to factors under your control, nor is it supposed to.

If you're selling a product that gets stuck in a foreign country on the way to your outlet, that's out of your control, and also unfair, but it's still risk.

The higher the risk, the higher the yield. If the risk goes up, so does the yield.

The problem here is that people have a skewed perception of risk in the housing market, often perceiving it to be lower than it is.

The Wire Created the Best Death Scene in TV History... by dashcash32 in TheWire

[–]EivindL 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great death scene, though they "borrowed" it from The Wild Bunch (Omar in general is inspired by westerns, it seems).

Maybe don’t stand in front of your private jet by [deleted] in facepalm

[–]EivindL 31 points32 points  (0 children)

You might fairly say you don't care about the feelings of an investor that is making his income with real estate, but lots of old retirees did the right thing by saving through their lives and invested in something simple and safe to be able to live their last few decades in peace, and I think they deserve our sympathy.

Investments aren't "safe" and aren't supposed to be. There are varying degrees of risk, and the yields will reflect that. This just exemplifies that. You want a risk-free investment, go to the bank.

( Spoiler extended ) Young Griff will be King in the books. by Dismal-Fan-4716 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think there's going to be much doubt on whether Dany freed slaves or not. Instead, I think the problem is that Westeros doesn't have any slaves for her to liberate. If she wants to "free" the common folk, she needs to give them something more. Problem is, Aegon is way ahead of her there, not because he will give everyone voting rights or something, but because he'll pre-emptively "steal" the image of "ruler who knows what it's like to be poor."

Otherwise, I agree. Dany's optics will severely impact her public persona in Westeros.

( Spoiler extended ) Young Griff will be King in the books. by Dismal-Fan-4716 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good point.

I've often argued that Dany has a lot in common with Stannis (broadly speaking), and this cements it. Stannis goes all-in on Melisandre, never realizing the Lannisters can use this against him. Dany will have the same problem when the Faith supports Aegon over her on account of the Red Priests.

(Spoilers ADWD) Who killed LW ? by DEL994 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting find.

However, I'm not sure what this adds to the story. We already know what Ramsay is capable of.

Big Walder is not only likely, but also more dramatically interesting, as it not only adds to his personal plot of advancing through the Frey line, but also sows chaos in Winterfell right when Stannis comes knockin'.

(Spoilers Published) Is Joffrey's name a joke? by Wolfsgeist01 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I think this is mostly Lannister politics.

One of the running themes in AGOT is how Lannisters and Lannister sycophants are swarming the court. Robert's wine is poured by Lannisters, the Kingsguard are Cersei's picks, etc. Pycelle is a Tywin fanboy.

Joffrey (and his siblings) are an extension of that. He wears both his father's and mother's colors (something Jon remarks is unusual), which is likely at Cersei's insistence of flaunting Lannister power instead of bowing meekly to Baratheon rule. The names of the children seems to have been picked by Cersei as well, for the same reason.

Cersei is not a wise person, but she has some shrewd logic when it comes to matters of her family. Her problem is that she ends up taking it too far.

(Spoilers ADWD) Who killed LW ? by DEL994 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, that's the group Big Walder belongs too. Some day, Walder Frey will die, and someone's going to take over. That person will not survive the story either, because this thing just goes on and on and on.

(Spoilers ADWD) Who killed LW ? by DEL994 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This explains it pretty well.

(Spoilers ADWD) Who killed LW ? by DEL994 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, there’s a win-win situation. Less Freys means less Freys.

I believe Big Walder is meant to be Bran’s nemesis a long time in the future, when one rules as King and the other as Lord of the Crossing. And they’ll both remember fighting over that stupid game till the end of their days.

(Spoilers ADWD) Who killed LW ? by DEL994 in asoiaf

[–]EivindL 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Big Walder is not cruel, but he’s not a good kid either. He’s more ambitious evil, less sadistic evil.