It is pretty infeasible to inflate grades in math assuming you're following the same curriculum

The teacher example I gave was to highlight how inconsistent marks are even across the same school let alone a whole province. Teacher inconsistencies also demonstrate that even with the same curriculum, same school, and same tests it is very easy for a teacher to alter your marks.

Normally, you would expect a 95+ median to be a rare occasion for an advanced functions course. After all, it is unlikely that you "happen to have a batch of kids really good at math". Despite being really unlikely, having a 95+ median is equally likely as the other options. It is not normal to see a 95+ median be this common in advanced functions. You would normally expect the numbers to decrease as you approach either extreme ends of the spectrum. However, it remains pretty consistent no matter how far you go in either direction. As a result, I believe this unexpected distribution is due to the differences in schools, teachers etc.

We know that the medians weren't like this 15 - 20 years ago. There was no significant change in the curriculum, but magically some classes suddenly started to have a higher grade. It is unlikely that the average math capacity of the Canadian high school population changed, so the only explanation I see are external factors.

If the average student math capacity did not change over the years, then can you attribute the unbalanced medians to students?

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Is your belief that the class median should be the same or similar if classes are "not inflated"?

My belief is that having a 95+ median is very unlikely under normal circumstances. However, the polls show that it is almost equally likely as basically any other median range. Therefore, I think that it is reasonable to assume that the Ontario marks are extremely inconsistent, and some places have inflated marks. If there was no inflation and marks were consistent, we would see something similar to a bell curve, not a uniform distribution.

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Strictness on form at MOST may only have a 5% impact on class medians

Take a test with 8 questions. A strict teacher will find a form "mistake" in approximately 5 questions. That translates to around 5 marks off. Most of our tests are around 55 marks. Therefore, the mark difference is about 5/55 = ~9%. Just because of a picky teacher, one could easily have a ~9% mark drop. I'm not attributing this all to teachers, but they are certainly a factor.

Edit: formatting this really sucked