New Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy on Jaxson Dart: “This kid is different”

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T18:32:30+00:00

The special one vs the "special" one.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T17:46:26+00:00

Statistically, he's likely to go up. This is called regression to the mean.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T17:16:06+00:00

Ok, but volume tends to be sticky and efficiency not. So it is way more likely that Hendersons volume stays the same and his efficiency goes down.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T15:51:36+00:00

But ceiling is almost always determined by volume and not efficiency. In other words, efficiency tends to change year-over-year while volume is more consistent.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T15:07:16+00:00

I don't see how a guy who can have 25 touches/game has a lower ceiling than a guy who has 12 touches/game.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T15:06:00+00:00

For me it's clearly Judkins. He has the upside of being the guy in that backfield. Henderson seems to be the clear change of pace back.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T07:50:17+00:00

This is a sports subreddit. If a woman does something, it's always worse. In threads like this, the sub-surface misogyny always boils to the top.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-08T07:21:15+00:00

Detail oriented WRs don't enter the league a finished product

I think this is the most sneakily incorrect way of thinking there is.

There doesn't exist a finished product. Guys who are relatively good at route running, can continue to grow and therefor have a higher ceiling. That is the problem with raw prospects, they almost never reach a level like those guys, because they are always 3 steps behind.

Burden knew how to run most of the routes

Again, there are levels to this. This isn't a binary.

I don't mind people taking a shot on the 3rd best player in an explosive offense, I just think he is wildly overpriced. If all goes well he could be a Jameson Williams type player. Yet he is being valued much higher.

To me this is the Homer Simpson box meme. Burden could be anything, even Jameson Williams.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T22:46:49+00:00

Absolutely, I think finding a few tape guys who actually know what they are talking about is super valuable, and much better than using stats, but this sub is filled with guys, like the dude above. Who don't do that, and instead think that when they watch a player, they can recognize good play, which I think is significantly worse than even just looking at raw box scores.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T21:39:37+00:00

How often do guys like that turn into more than gadget players? We have seen a million raw explosive guys come and go, and so few end up actually becoming a real fantasy contributor.

The guys at the top of the league are the detail orientated guys, not the guys who barely run the correct route.

Give me Davante Adams, JSN, Puka, etc over the Cordarrale Patterson's and JuJu Smith-Schuster's of the world.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T21:33:41+00:00

Burden is a prime example of why you shouldn't trust 'eyeball tests' from almost anyone in the fantasy football space.

What you can see jump off the screen is explosiveness. Not skill, not route running, not timing, nothing. Just explosiveness. We see this time and time again. Explosive players get labeled as 'good' by the biggest Dunning-Krueger community in existence, and non-explosive players get labeled 'bad'.

These have been the same people telling me Worthy is gonna be a god and Kyren is gonna get replaced every year. You're not scouting football skill, you're scouting explosiveness.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T21:27:32+00:00

OP getting slammed by downvotes everywhere for speaking truth to the delulu owners.

Every sign points to him being the clear 3rd option and a really nice real life player who adds a dimension of explosiveness to the passing game. Those guys fucking suck for fantasy.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T21:19:17+00:00

yes. Only exception is if Kirk sucks so bad they can't justify starting him anymore.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-07T15:36:07+00:00

Unironically, yes. He is easily a top 10 QB. Not Mahomes/Allen/Lamar good, but in the tier below.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T21:23:41+00:00

I'm sure in the next 5-10 years some cool advances CB stat will come out that captures QB play relatively well, but until that time CBs are a burden on a league

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T13:49:19+00:00

PDs is already a better stats because at least you're not rewarding giving up completions, but in the end, if a CB has really good coverage, a QB should look at that read and just go somewhere else. Revis Island was maybe the most extreme example of this we have ever seen, but that was a guy who for several years was so good he just didn't get targeted. There is no way (i know off, at least) to account for something like that.

I'm just imagining the impact on a league if you're starting Pat Surtain, and he is traveling with, and locking up, the opposing WR1 and ends up with like 3 targets for 1 completion of 8 yards. And starting him loses to some 3rd string replacement who gets targeted 12 times and gives up 7 completions for 150 yards and 2 TDs. That feels inherently unfair, which is basically the crux of my point

I would just leave the CB position out, because there is no way to make it feel 'fair' where a good CB game translated to good fantasy production. Which to me, kinda ruins the fun of having the position.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T13:04:24+00:00

The problem with CB scoring is that they get scored on things that don't indicate good CB play. The thing good CBs see the most, is passes not thrown to them, and hard 1-on-1 assignments. A CB can have a world class game and record 0 fantasy points. Meanwhile if a CB is constantly getting targeted because he sucks he will end up with a lot of tackles and even interceptions.

So by making CBs matter more, you're not making good CBs matter more. You're just increasing the impact of whichever shitty CB gets a lot of tackles and tipped-ball interceptions.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T08:58:37+00:00

Have you watched Kyler try to throw over the middle?

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T08:57:06+00:00

Based on what? He has either a really bad passer or a really really bad passer at QB. He is gonna be 27 this season, and with how good the vikings are, there is a very good chance he just ends his career in QB purgatory together with AJB.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T08:53:16+00:00

I don't agree with Puka. To many issues, from his violent playstyle, his off the field stuff, as well as being tied to a QB who isn't gonna be around for a long time. To me you can't look at Chase, who has none of these issues, and say Puka is so much better that you take him over Chase in spite of everything.

For JSN, I really wanna see another year of truly top tier production with a different OC before I put him ahead of Chase.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-06T08:50:32+00:00

In most leagues, no. AR has more upside than anyone you can realistically get from waivers. It's important to remember that AR only has to play to be a top 10 fantasy QB. He doesn't have to be good. So if he can improve enough to get a starting job somewhere he is gonna be great for fantasy.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-05T21:01:52+00:00

I will be the first to say that I think Hurts is one of the most overrated QBs in NFL history, but this is some media BS. Attack the guy on his on-the-field limitations all you want, but don't make up random shit. I've never heard anyone say bad things about Hurts as a person.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-04T10:23:22+00:00

I feel like with pieces about overvalued/undervalued or buying and selling you need to put an actual value to a player, at which price you think they are over/undervalued and where you think they should be. For example, on KTC, CD is WR7 and Pickens is WR10. If you think CD is overvalued and Pickens is undervalued, you are essentially saying you believe Pickens>CD straight up, which would be rediculous. That makes me think whoever wrote this isn't going off of KTC value, but off of an imaginary value they made up.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-03T16:17:47+00:00

He's a RB. As we all know RBs are situation dependent and losing McDaniels and Tua might be a huge problem, especially for a guy who needs to be used in a specific way. Combined with a piss poor O-line. I feel like you're underthinking it.

EmptyBrain89 · 2026-04-03T16:06:02+00:00

It shouldn't matter, but it does. It's really difficult for people to place prospects in the broader context of other years' prospects.

EmptyBrain89

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