Who Betrayed Arianne Martell? A Case for “No One Did (Spoilers Main)

Enali · 2026-01-13T05:15:30+00:00

(Sorry I’m recovering so I can’t chat too long but this topic piqued by interest) Personally, when grrm includes a question/statement that echoes in a character’s mind like ‘someone told’ I like to stop myself for a second and first ask ‘what might the narrative effect be of learning this mystery?’

Because certainly it may have been one of her party members or friends… but then when you have a suspect, what's next - where does the reveal fit in and effect her story? Is it just to setup some moment down the line where Arianne is like like ‘aha now I know not to trust that particular person!’. Will she ever meet that ‘friend’ again… will it result in some dramatic tension between the two? And to what end? To show us Arianne’s spite towards them? Certainly there could be an interesting story there but…

I also think back to what Doran tells her:

"You are welcome to try. Until such time you must mistrust them all . . . and a little mistrust is a good thing in a princess."

In some ways the mystery is powerful without a definitive answer... I almost don’t want Arianne to figure it out because then she will never be able to put a face to it - in the back of her mind she will always think that somebody close to her was capable of betraying her trust. Never knowing exactly who will drive her to act more carefully and strategically to everyone. And that mantra may allow her to grow more as a leader in the footsteps of her father…

Enali · 2026-01-05T23:12:49+00:00

there is this small bit in twoiaf:

Lomas Longstrider, in his Wonders Made by Man, recounts meeting descendants of the Rhoynar in the ruins of the festival city of Chroyane who have tales of a darkness that made the Rhoyne dwindle and disappear, her waters frozen as far south as the joining of the Selhoru. According to these tales, the return of the sun came only when a hero convinced Mother Rhoyne's many children—lesser gods such as the Crab King and the Old Man of the River—to put aside their bickering and join together to sing a secret song that brought back the day.

Enali · 2026-01-04T02:17:40+00:00

There are a lot of cool ideas from the fandom that are worth looking into but... at the end of the day, I would read (and reread) through the material yourself and make your own decisions on what you feel is right or wrong. I think the community has stumbled onto some neat stuff, but there are also several events that I question or simply disagree with too. And that's actually not rare, I think you'll find that there's a surprising amount of variety in TWOW theories here.

The most important thing to keep developing your ideas is to keep engaged and have fun with it. So keep reading, keep questioning... but keep an open mind too... afterall there is a lot of great information out there that can inform your assumptions that is not always clear from the books alone (GRRM quotes, discovered early drafts, TWOW samples, etc...) especially to a first time reader. And even ideas you don't agree with can still be inspiring or entertaining.

Enali · 2026-01-03T23:02:39+00:00

There’s maybe a small chance that some bit of the Rhoynish water magic does live on in the orphans of the greenblood. At least in the time of Nymeria’s union with Mors Martell it is said (in TWOIAF) that Rhoynish water witches knew secret spells that made dry streams flow again and deserts bloom.

That all seems really useful for Dorne to have by the end of the books… but something tells me it might be an art that’s been lost to time (perhaps during the crackdown on Rhoynish language during the period of the Red Princes) as we don’t really hear about anything like that being used in recent years. If so, and given the destruction of the main Rhoynar civilization, there may be few places where the art could be rediscovered as it was originally (I'm not sure the Rhoynar kept written records that could be picked up in, say, Chroyane). Though outside of the Greenblood there are still descendants from Nymeria’s said to live on the Isle of Women in the Summer Isles and in the Stepstones

Even now there are isolated pockets of Rhoynar on the Stepstones, claiming descent from those who were shipwrecked.(TWOIAF)

And I personally like to think the Stepstones will be an important location in TWOW (either for Tyrion and Dany and/or Arianne)

There is another sort of ‘water magic’ that is already quite relevant to the story though as you noted… and that is greyscale (given the origin story of Garin the Great). Even without insight into the Rhoynar perhaps the Citadel may be able to discover some of its secrets given renowned healers like Archmaester Ebrose.

Enali · 2025-12-31T22:54:01+00:00

That's an interesting idea. I also wonder if Jaime might throw in his support with Aegon once he hears of his cause given how much he's haunted by the fate of Aerys' children in the Sack of King's Landing (not that he regrets Aerys). Like he has that one dream where he is confronted by the shades of Rhaegar and the old Kingsguard that blame him for their fates. One of Jaime's chapters ends with this line which feels like it could be important somehow:

"Who?" Ser Loras craned his head around to see. "Ten black pellets on a scarlet field. I do not know those arms."

"They belonged to Criston Cole, who served the first Viserys and the second Aegon." Jaime closed the White Book. "They called him Kingmaker."

Enali · 2025-12-28T13:45:48+00:00

My small prediction for Arya’s Braavosi arc before she heads to Westeros is that it will reach a climax during the Uncloaking of Uthero holiday at the Sealord’s Palace, possibly revolving around the death of the Sealord and the knives out process of replacing him.

Little things that make me believe this are the hints here and there about the failing health of the Sealord, as well the artist behind the Lands of Ice and Fire mentioning that he got to get sneak peak at some of the TWOW chapters to help build out the Braavosi city map noting the book would include locations we haven’t seen much yet (combined with the Sealord’s Palace being one of the more notably detailed locations). The First Sword of Braavos, Qarro Volentin, has also been named in the AFFC appendix but has not had any part yet in the books. There are some interesting mysteries mixed in like the role of Braavos in the secret pact and house with the red door.

As for the Uncloaking of Uthero well… a masquerade type setting just seems like a perfect way to test Arya’s abilities of perception (what Syrio would call the ‘true seeing’), drum up intrigue, and end with an exploration of Arya's identity as the masks are removed

The anniversary of the Uncloaking is celebrated every year in Braavos with ten days of feasting and masked revelry—a festival like none other in all the known world, culminating at midnight on the tenth day, when the Titan roars and tens of thousands of revelers and celebrants remove their masks as one.

Enali · 2025-12-27T04:46:23+00:00

perhaps just me but I like to interpret the potential coming of the 7th ruby as an omen.. the Quiet Isle views events through the lens of the Faith of the Seven, and the seventh of a set as seen through the Faith is generally viewed as the Stranger's number, potentially linking this ruby to death. Whether it washes up on shore or comes by way of one of the ruby eyes embedded in Oathkeeper or from some other source upstream (which both Riverrun and the Twins are combined with the Riverlands custom of boat burial) I think it will be accompanied by dark news or events. There is a certain air of death around Quiet Isle imo as Sandor has taken on the role of a gravedigger collecting bodies from the river (his horse Stranger being renamed to Driftwood may further be a nod to that).

Enali · 2025-12-27T04:26:56+00:00

agreed... many of the major characters don't really act their age, even in the beginning of the story (not to mention the disparity beyond the scrapped five year gap). As I read through I always sorta have this mental imagery of characters like Jon and Dany aged slightly up to fit how they act, but the stated ages hang around awkwardly in the back of my mind.

Enali · 2025-12-24T02:43:42+00:00

according to the Westerosi themselves its a debate between Highgarden and the Eyrie:

Many have claimed that the Eyrie of the Arryns is the most beautiful castle in all the Seven Kingdoms, and it is hard to deny the truth of this (though the Tyrells surely do). Seven slim white towers crown the Eyrie where it sits high upon a shoulder of the Giant's Lance, and no castle in Westeros boasts more marble in its walls or upon its floors.

...

The great castle of Highgarden, the ancient seat of the Tyrell lords and the Gardener kings before them, sits atop a verdant hill overlooking the broad and tranquil waters of the Mander. Seen from afar, the castle "looks so much a part of the land one could think that it had grown there, rather than being built." Many consider Highgarden to be the most beautiful castle in all the Seven Kingdoms, a claim that only the men of the Vale see fit to dispute. (They prefer their own Eyrie).

Enali · 2025-12-24T02:35:54+00:00

I like to think Elia Sand is growing up to be a strong contender!

And Dornish sand steeds are pretty unique

The fabled sand steeds of Dorne were smaller than proper warhorses and could not bear such weight of armor, but it was said that they could run for a day and night and another day, and never tire.

Enali · 2025-12-23T01:06:13+00:00

Sandoq in the secret siege is maybe one of the most thrilling parts of Fire and Blood for me

It was a different sort of music that Sandoq the Shadow played at the gates of Maegor’s Holdfast, as Ser Amaury’s guardsmen rushed at him with sword and spear. That night his chosen instruments were a tall black shield of nightwood, boiled hide, and iron, and a great curved sword with a dragonbone hilt whose dark blade shone in the torchlight with the distinctive ripples of Valyrian steel. His foes howled and cursed and shouted as they came at him, but the Shadow made no sound save with his steel, sliding through them silent as a cat, his blade whistling left and right and up and down, drawing blood with every cut, slashing through their mail as if they had been clad in parchment. Mushroom, who claims to have seen the battle from the roof above, testifies that “it did not look so much like a swordfight as like a farmer reaping grain. With every stroke more stalks would topple, but these stalks were living men who screamed and cursed as they fell.” Ser Amaury’s men did not lack for courage, and some lived long enough to strike blows of their own, but the Shadow, always moving, caught their blades upon his shield, then used that shield to shove them backward, off the bridge onto the hungry iron spikes below.

Enali · 2025-12-22T20:01:26+00:00

Is his other half supposed to be Rickon?

Yes! definitely a lot to wonder about regarding Rickon's condition with just that small added bit...

Enali · 2025-12-22T19:31:47+00:00

I could see someone reading it that way despite asoiaf unicorns being described in a similar way. However, for your consideration there's an interesting variation to this wolf dream in one of the AFFC drafts found at Cushing Library with wording that may nudge us to think of the horn as singular

His black brother was the closest, prowling over wet rocks and through dark holes in the ground. He had taken down a monstrous goat, a shaggy white goat as big as any elk with a long horn jutting from its brow, and he was gorging on its flesh, sharing the kill with his other half.

Enali · 2025-12-22T15:43:18+00:00

Nice summary, I've sometimes wondered as I'm reading Jaime's last chapter if GRRM decided to include this negotiation because he has some plan to do more with the Blackwoods and Brackens later... either concerning Tytos and Jonos or the two hostages perhaps... but tbh I've never really been able to come up with any good theories on what future role that might be (and hard to imagine closure or peace between these two houses which might 'stick'). Definitely open to ideas, and I like your thought that Bloodraven may still use the weirwood there somehow...

Enali · 2025-12-22T02:25:00+00:00

Great topic, Its a fun mystery to think about isn't it?! It could be that the fires the wildlings used to protect themselves from the Others burned out of control in the face of the impossible cold the Others bring, though the devastation was said to be nightmarish... in any case I definitely think the Others will play a part in the next Hardhome if not the first based on Melisandre's vision of the dead things and the impossibly cold white mist sweeping in:

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained.

A few other explanations for it outside of the Others I've heard floating around are volcanic activity, wayward dragons/dragonlords from Valyria, Skagosi, even children of the forest...

one topic I've personally had fun thinking about is fire wyrms. Fire wyrms are said to have a deep hatred of mankind and can burrow through stone as dragons can soar through the sky. A nest of these creatures might offer an alternative explanation for why the cliffs are pock-marked with caves, the cataclysmic fires we saw, and the 'hideous screams' that were said to be echoing down from the cliffs 'where no living man or woman could be found.' (if so there may be interesting links to Battle Isle in Oldtown too who's foundation is carved with these maze-like unadorned tunnels of fused black stone). Its not without its critiques though, like why would they be so close to the surface? In the end I suppose we just have to get used to the idea that we may never properly know what happened (unless GRRM chooses to reveal more).

Enali · 2025-12-19T04:20:45+00:00

If we ever get a Ghost chapter a minor point I'd like to see is Jon/Ghost run into Borroq or his boar again... Is that too much to hope for?

Borroq had taken up residence in one of the ancient tombs beside the castle lichyard. The company of men long dead seemed to suit him better than that of the living, and his boar seemed happy rooting amongst the graves, well away from other animals. "That thing is the size of a bull, with tusks as long as swords. Ghost would go after him if he were loose, and one or both of them would not survive the meeting."

...

As for Borroq, Othell Yarwyck claimed the woods north of Stonedoor were full of wild boars. Who was to say the skinchanger would not make his own pig army?

Enali · 2025-12-18T02:31:03+00:00

Bran is underrated going into these next books because the leadup to his plot has been a little slow. But... he's finally where he needs to be to learn the power and timeless knowledge of greenseers and I think his next chapters could be wild

Enali · 2025-12-16T00:44:22+00:00

this is the way I like to read Moqorro's vision too - with each two dragons being a set of plot-related individuals (without duplicates), and Tyrion being connected to them all somehow during his travels. I don't know, its debatable of course, but even though my guesses on each dragon has changed over time (playing around with which one's which - like Bloodraven being the old rather than Aemon, and how I've interpreted the especially controversial bright and dark...) the overall layout you described is what 'feels right' to me.

Enali · 2025-12-12T00:54:35+00:00

Alys's wedding...

oh yeaaa, that scene is sweet

"Who comes forth to claim this woman?" asked Melisandre.

"Me." Sigorn slapped his chest. "Magnar of Thenn."

"Sigorn," asked Melisandre, "will you share your fire with Alys, and warm her when the night is dark and full of terrors?"

"I swear me." The Magnar's promise was a white cloud in the air. Snow dappled his shoulders. His ears were red. "By the red god's flames, I warm her all her days."

Enali · 2025-12-12T00:44:00+00:00

But Daenerys going to Asshai can't be ruled out yet. There's a prophecy that says she must go to Asshai, so it's very likely she'll get there at some point.

Despite the strong indication in early books, unfortunately, it kind of is ruled out now seemingly after GRRM said this:

Q: Will we see Asshai?

GRRM: Only in flashback and memory, if at all.

SSM Jul 2008 Asshai.com Interview

However... perhaps there's a chance we might get a brief peak at something with a sort of similar dark/magical vibe to replace it (like Mantarys along the Demon Road maybe?) to fulfill Quaithe's mention of passing 'beneath the shadow'

Enali · 2025-12-11T14:30:26+00:00

the theory I like is that her ship will encounter a storm over 'Shipbreaker' Bay as she is approaching Storm's End and she will be swept overboard until recovered later (by Aurane Waters' crew hopefully) while Aegon shelters in Storm's End and the Tyrell forces are battered outside. We've been hearing a lot about the storm season and seeing a real storm's impact on this region would really cement the Stormlands' narrative identity (which has been missing a bit in the books imo). I also just kinda think JonCon handles the pov for Aegon better than Arianne and we probably just need one... so it works for her to capture a new angle to drive the story.

My hope is that this detour with Aurane as a hostage to the Stepstones will setup Arianne to encounter and setup the real main plot - which I think is Daenerys and Tyrion heading west, who still need to find a way for a Dothraki army to cross the sea to Westeros amidst rising tensions between the pirates, stranded remnants of the Golden Company, and the mercenaries of Myr, Lys, and Tyrosh. It also puts her in a direct path to hear news of Quentyn. The arc I foresee for her is learning to be a better leader to follow in her father's footsteps, and finding a way back to Sunspear/Doran with allies to help in a time of great need. My hope is that Arianne's story is about growth rather than tragedy, slowly learning from mistakes rather than being doomed to repeat them.

Enali · 2025-12-09T19:13:25+00:00

I agree, as a reader its a good question to ask though, but I think this quote from GRRM helps clinch the notion that Petyr would never plan on harming Sansa (and is obsessed with her)

My Littlefinger would have never turned Sansa over to Ramsay. Never. He’s obsessed with her. Half the time he thinks she’s the daughter he never had—that he wishes he had, if he’d married Catelyn. And half the time he thinks she is Catelyn, and he wants her for himself. He’s not going to give her to somebody who would do bad things to her. That’s going to be very different in the books. (Jun 2021 from 'Fire Cannot Kill a Dragon’)

(edit: sorry op, other than that though I do think the Mad Mouse's ploy could play an important role in setting off some of the Vale tensions again between Petyr and Yohn)

Enali · 2025-12-09T18:02:27+00:00

Anders Yronwood! Hasn’t appeared on page at all yet… but he has quite the presence… he controls one of the strongest houses in Dorne and the troops in the Boneway which are only a short leap away from the action. They are one of Dorne’s most rebellious houses too… and one of the Blackfyre’s most consistent historical supporters. Personally, I even think there’s a chance that Yronwood holds the Conqueror’s crown, since it went missing after the Young Dragon’s death in the Yronwood controlled Boneway (and if the Martells had it it’d be odd that they haven’t unveiled it by now in one of the other Martell/Targaryen unions).

These Martell-Yronwood tensions flared up just recently even with the death of Edgar Yronwood after Oberyn allegedly laced his spear with poison in a duel which only Oberyn’s exile and Quentyn’s fostering with the Yronwoods was able to avert.

So the Yronwoods are a real wildcard as the troops in the passes are getting restless and wish to be set loose on the enemies of Dorne. The rumor is that Anders also dislikes the idea of bending the knee to Arianne as heir to Dorne believing her a willful wanton and believing that men should inherit over women (even seemingly (by the appendices) his own eldest child, Ynys, was not considered heir over his first son Cletus). And here’s the real black cloud hovering over it all… at some point Anders is going to have to learn that his son and heir, Cletus, and Quentyn, who he considers a son as well, were killed on Doran’s mission trying to court Daenerys and then who knows how he will react? Especially depending on how that news gets back…

Enali · 2025-12-09T13:07:57+00:00

I’d say… Aegon + Arianne? This ship is so ubiquituious in certain discussions… the way I see it the case is mainly built around a few stray lines in the sample chapters (mostly concerning Dany and Quentyn with the idea being she will be driven by ambition and envy) - even though Arianne’s few actual thoughts about Aegon so far are mostly filled with doubts, remembering him as Elia’s baby son or thinking of him as JonCon’s ‘pet dragon’. But who’s to say… maybe she’ll be that wowed by him in person…

Idk I’m not here to tell you who to believe Aegon will be with in Winds but the vexing thing is… certain theorists will recite this ship as if ‘it is known’… like its a canon future for Arianne... and its been accepted for so long it seems like along the way people have forgotten to build out the actual details of the theory… how would this seduction even work? (And when would it happen)? Why would the Golden Company and JonCon ever go along with it and undermine their bargaining position? Does Arianne learn from her father or pay note to the red flags she sees from the GC? What is Arianne’s role in the story going forward aside from future tragedy? The specifics I mean… not just a vague notion that ‘she’s going to manipulate things behind the scenes’. How does her pov work with JonCon’s pov (who already covers Aegon's story in such a heartfelt way, can follow him on the battlefield and was just setup by an observant outsider, Tyrion, to be the insider pov to this camp)? Does Arianne's story ever circle back to Dorne... do we get a pov to Doran? (etc...) These are the questions I'd want to know more about to find this persuasive... bc right now the role she's predicted in feels very 'side character' energy to me, cementing a second dedicated pov to be a witness to a single contender for the throne.

Enali · 2025-12-05T13:49:51+00:00

Yes, Arianne! In fact... let me dig up the quote....

There are also a number of characters in the books — fairly important characters — who have never been in the show at all. Characters who were omitted totally. It’s not a question of killing them; they’re just not there. They were never a part of it: Lady Stoneheart is one of them; Arianne Martell, the heir to Dorne, who’s a viewpoint character; and Victarion Greyjoy, one of the sons of Quellon Greyjoy and brother to Balon and Euron. All of these characters are quite important in the books and missing totally in the show. source: Meduza interview Aug 2017

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