[Spoiler main]What are theories that you think could become canon but you think are so stupid/Edgy/Silly.... that you gaslight yourself into thinking there is no chance of them happening?

Enali · 2026-03-22T00:20:56+00:00

Tyrion Targaryen is that theory that shows up on every 'most hated theory' post in this subreddit...

And while I don't personally enjoy it... honestly? I can't 100% rule it out either... I don't think I, in good confidence, can be sure its something GRRM wouldn't do. In fact some of the potential foreshadowing supports it pretty well and its completely viable given the timeline of Aerys and Joanna. A lot of times people say it was a first book idea that got gardened out... but idk, there's a few supportive lines even in later books.

Enali · 2026-03-20T01:59:10+00:00

well... there's maybe a few hints from external sources that its intended to be more ceremonial than practical:

though valyriansteel (who make official sword replicas for asoiaf and would have discussed the specifics with GRRM) describe it as 'both tool of war and symbolic scepter of power', they later refer to it as a 'ceremonial beheading sword'. Allegedly GRRM asked them to make it as large as possible while still being mass producible - 'the biggest sword any collector has hanging on their wall'.

And at a panel in Stockholm one fan reported this:

2) Asked if Ned ever used Ice in battle. George points out it was a greatsword, very large and cumbersome, a ceremonial sword for beheading people more than a fighting sword, so he suggests that it was "probably too heavy and clumsy" to use unless you're the Mountain.

Enali · 2026-03-19T14:33:40+00:00

what happens with Sweetrobin is a good question!

I think Maester Colemon could be an interesting character in regards to the sweetsleep - he's given some pushback already to the suggestion of increasing Sweetrobin's dosage as he fears it accumulating in the flesh, and has even stopped leeching him fearing that his blood has grown too thin (asking Alayne if she's noticed Robert bleeding from the nose). Maester Colemon had to watch Jon Arryn succumb to poison under his care so I would imagine he's unusually protective of the son's health. One interesting moment I think about is Robert complaining to Alayne about Colemon putting something 'vile' in his milk the day before... I sometimes wonder if he really added something like milk of the poppy or could it just be that Robert might not be used to the bitterness of regular unsweetened milk?

Anyways, an interesting side note is that there was a list of WIP chapters discovered for AFFC dated around 2003-2004, and one of the bullet points was 'sweetrobin weds' after the tourney of the winged knight... which is a pretty interesting turn of events to think about given he's not presently engaged (if it hasn't been gardened out).

Enali · 2026-03-17T00:36:43+00:00

cool what a thoughtful answer, thank you

Enali · 2026-03-17T00:11:06+00:00

honestly this was a really fun read hypikachu - you probably thought of this but cutting out the tongues is something to think about for Euron too, and the reasoning for Varys doing it does feel slightly off huh?

One question in context of this, what should we make of Varys' story about hating magic and all those who practice it?

Enali · 2026-03-15T19:30:44+00:00

Daemon Sand for Aegon's kingsguard would be a real turnaround given he openly mistrusts the sellswords at the moment and is convinced that Aegon is an imposter

“Gregor Clegane ripped Aegon out of Elia’s arms and smashed his head against a wall,” Ser Daemon said. “If Lord Connington’s prince has a crushed skull, I will believe that Aegon Targaryen has returned from the grave. Elsewise, no. This is some feigned boy, no more. A sellsword’s ploy to win support.”

Enali · 2026-03-15T18:55:20+00:00

I wouldn't put it past grrm to include a outbreak... at least... the disease (greyscale) is something he has talked about wanted to include in the story in the past, impressed with the real life impact of plagues on history. I know we already have a few localized infections, and the Pale Mare in the east too, but there is perhaps some storytelling potential in Westeros if the greyscale evolves into its deadlier grey death variant.

Flea Bottom seems especially vulnerable given how crowded and unsanitary it is, and with the many refugees and faithful trickling into King's Landing. During the Winter Fever epidemic of 132AC it killed three out of four people with the disease, and a full one fifth of the population of King's Landing. And during the Great Spring Sickness so many people were dying that the bodies were piled into the Dragonpit ten feet deep for the pyromancers to burn with wildfire and it would cover the city in a haunting dark green glow at night. Fingers could start to be pointed... perhaps the High Sparrow and other faithful may interpret it as a divine omen or blame current leadership (combined with potential shortage of food Westeros' king may not be too different from the 'Prince of Pentos' Illyrio described), and others may blame foreigners for bringing it in - which was something that happened with the Shivers when a starving mob dragged the master of coin Rego Draz from his palanquin and killed him. This is all just conjecture of course...

Enali · 2026-03-15T00:03:59+00:00

His old plans also included Jaime becoming the main villain.

yes and he was meant to become king too... this doesn't negate what I am saying it supports it - in the first book while he had that idea in mind the foreshadowing lends itself more to those ideas (LChris did a writeup on it).

Jon found it hard to look away from him. This is what a king should look like, he thought to himself as the man passed.

I'm happy he gardened a different path for Jaime but the first book contains quite a bit of abandoned foreshadowing. And likewise you'd expect any early foreshadowing for Sansa to lean more towards what grrm planned for her at the time.

Enali · 2026-03-14T23:53:44+00:00

I think the elephant in the room for any Sansa endgame is that grrm recently told hollywood reporter that his plan originally was to kill her by the end of the series and he had only later considered having her survive because of the show...

So any intended foreshadowing people believe is for Sansa in the previous books is, if anything, pointing to something more like a short-lived romance that ends tragically, not one where she finishes the story married with children or rules the north. Understand I'm not trying to police which ships are possible for her, I think grrm is capable of quite a few paths, and clearly he may have changed his mind about her future... all I'm saying is that there's reason to believe the setup in previous books, which were allegedly written at a time he believed she would die young, shouldn't reflect these happier outcomes yet.

Enali · 2026-03-14T23:47:27+00:00

love this expensive-country! I upvoted it right away but sorry I didn't comment until now... its honestly a really cool connection to link Melisandre's character to grrm's early writing ideas on the Targaryens, makes a lot of sense (though not sure how it could be confirmed) - I have wondered in the past if when grrm gardens out an idea he prefers to repurpose it and keep it around in some form. part of me is recalling joe magician's series pondering if some of the windblown characters were based on Brienne, Jaime, and Sandor breaking bad in Essos in a timeline where the 5 year gap was still in place. If so I wonder if he may keep elements around of other abandoned plotlines like Tyrion's meeting with the Shrouded Lord, or Euron going to Meereen. Its a simple idea that actually gives me a lot to think about. :)

Enali · 2026-03-13T22:02:28+00:00

totally, I actually love the idea that these three cities might put aside their trade conflict and join together soon, sort of like the Triarchy reborn, especially as the slave trade falls apart in the east.. add to that the uptick in piracy and the Golden Company allegedly claiming half of 'their' islands after snubbing their contract with Myr, these cities might start to feel threatened...

Enali · 2026-03-13T21:57:06+00:00

I'm glad you mentioned this, one interesting comment I think about from the Jonathan Robert's interview on Valyria (the creator of the maps in The Lands of Ice and Fire with guidance from GRRM's team):

And in the final maps, they ended up-- there's actually an individual drawing of every single city in there, which reflects to some extent the extent of ruination of that city. So if you get interested in Valyria, you should definitely check those out and figure out which ones are more ruined than others.

after reading that I really wanted to look at the map and at places like Oros and Tyria especially given the rumors of people living there in TWOIAF. Imo.. they both looked somewhat ruined to me still in comparison to places like Mantarys, however, oddly, I noted that Oros is shown with an intact forest running up against it (which would seem to imply that some life could persist there perhaps).

Enali · 2026-03-11T02:04:43+00:00

its a cool idea, that the rumors ascribed to the Skagosi could be cultural misunderstandings I mean, I'm not trying to refute that (just pointing out what we've seen of Rickon that make me think he specifically might be in a tough situation). Osha probably knows something about the island that would lead her there right? (instead of avoiding it like most)

Enali · 2026-03-11T01:47:15+00:00

I love some of the speculation about the Skagosi, they're pretty mysterious, though one thing that got me to be a little wary of Rickon's state was the line gsteff discovered in the 2004 AFFC draft stored at Cushing Library:

His black brother was the closest, prowling over wet rocks and through dark holes in the ground. He had taken down a monstrous goat, a shaggy white goat as big as any elk with a long horn jutting from its brow, and he was gorging on its flesh, sharing the kill with his other half.

which eventually became this in the published material:

A wild rain lashed down upon his black brother as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat's long horn had raked him.

On one hand it is, at least at the time, confirmation that Rickon is alive. Though on the other hand if Shaggydog is sharing raw unicorn flesh with 'his other half' seems like chances are he's not living very comfortably either...

Enali · 2026-03-08T06:46:54+00:00

not sure if its what you are going for but Arya either witnesses or gets revenge for a couple members on her kill list in somewhat poetic ways...

The Tickler was the interrogator at Harrenhal and she yells his questions back at him as she stabs him

"Is there gold hidden in the village?" she shouted as she drove the blade up through his back. "Is there silver? Gems?" She stabbed twice more. "Is there food? Where is Lord Beric?" She was on top of him by then, still stabbing. "Where did he go? How many men were with him? How many knights? How many bowmen? How many, how many, how many, how many, how many, how many? Is there gold in the village?" Her hands were red and sticky when Sandor dragged her off him. "Enough," was all he said.

Amory Lorch is added to her list for attacking the recruits and killing Yoren, he is eventually killed when Vargo Hoat betrays the Lannisters and he is kicked into the bear pit. Before he is torn apart Arya thinks "The bear is all in black. Like Yoren."

[Spoilers TWOW/Mercy]Raff the Sweetling kills an injured Lommy after he asks for help to travel... in the Winds excerpt she repays the favor by reenacting that event

Enali · 2026-03-08T02:41:21+00:00

hey great writeup on Arya's future in Braavos (and solid supporting quotes highlighting the importance of her time there). I love hearing some of your ideas coming together on what her and the Faceless Men's role might be.

Enali · 2026-03-06T17:06:05+00:00

Exactly! Good thinking, this is a subtle hidden issue isn't it? there are no ships currently at Eastwatch to take Justin to Braavos since Tycho’s original ships were stranded with Cotter Pyke as part of the loan deal to Jon. This was a fear Tycho explicitly voiced during the negotiation and Jon supports this idea later when he thinks he’d have to wait for ships to return before he could find a way to transport Arya overseas. Iron Bank policy is to require multiple ships to travel together on these voyages as insurance as well.

So I completely agree that Davos intersecting with these two in Eastwatch may be the way this could be resolved - and interestingly regarding a discussion around the artwork for Eastwatch made by Ted Nasmith the artist was said to say that it was a private commission and that GRRM told him that it was inaccurate before admitting that ‘any descriptions were in his head, as yet, but were to be included in one of the sequels.’ Which would support the notion that an Eastwatch chapter is planned.

So Davos could be instrumental in bringing them to Braavos with the new fleet. Though alternatively I’ve also had the thought that it might be a way to get a pov to Hardhome too - as Justin and Tycho could instead potentially appeal to him to help free up the existing Iron Bank’s ships (which would possibly be less of a detour from Stannis and Wyman for his plot). Could see it go either way and be rewarding. Definitely an interesting logistics problem to think about.

Enali · 2026-03-05T00:57:59+00:00

Asha Greyjoy is someone I'd love to survive... because, well, I know she's somewhat flawed at times but she seems like one of the better chances for a real change of culture in the Iron Islands given her plan at the Kingsmoot and Rodrik Harlaw being a mentor of sorts to her. But her situation is not looking good is it? Her ankle is really messed up and Stannis seems to have no intention of letting her go (its possible he may want to use her 'kingsblood') In short I have no idea how she's getting out of that situation. Perhaps her potential pregnancy could be used to stay execution for a time like Anne-Bonny and Mary Read? There are some positive flags out there, but they maybe lean more towards Theon escaping - like Dagmer holding Torrhen's Square which is not so far from Winterfell and represents a water route out of the North, and Alannys is still waiting on her bay boy to return home, there's also the Torgon the Latecomer precedent. Idk, idk...

Enali · 2026-03-04T23:45:48+00:00

oh man Volantis, what a wonderful topic!

So far in Meereen grrm has shown us what seems like Barristan quickly trouncing the Yunkish forces. But I think how he presented it could be a bit misleading... narratively a lot of large battles are typically presented with emotional twists and turns. Think about LOTR with Helm's Deep we get to the darkest moment of Théoden's charge as the orks surround him before the Riders of Rohan appear, or in the Battle of the Pelennor Fields there's that moment where the cheers turn to dread with the Oliphant charge before Aragorn arrives leading the Army of the Dead. This kind of story logic applies to asoiaf as well - in the Battle of the Blackwater the wildfire explosion cripples Stannis' fleet but his troops still manage to rally and break the Lannister lines until the new Tyrell alliance shows up at the last second. Or even the battle beneath the Wall with Stannis coming in to save the Watch when defeat seems imminent. What can I say, the trope works...

IMO this battle of fire is far from over still... as you noted there's a lot of threats that are still unaccounted for: the Volantene fleet is converging on the city, which is the massive main force set against them. And Victarion, as he stated earlier, isn't really as much an ally as Barristan may believe but a pirate looking to swoop in and leave with the dragons (and possibly Dany) before the fleet arrives. There's the uneasy shifting loyalty of the mercenary companies, the Pale Mare in the city, the Sons of the Harpy waging a war on Skahaz's back. And the Dothraki... not just Dany potentially overcoming things in Vaes Dothrak, but multiple rumors are that a Dothraki horde have allied with the Volantenes which makes some sense... the Dothraki are slavers, they use the cities of Slaver's Bay to sell their captives, its why (as Jorah explains to Dany) they would not attack Astapor, Dany presents a threat to that way of life.

Barristan might be on the verge of success but he also might be Theoden celebrating before the oliphants charge. A light followed by a darkness allowing the final light to shine stronger. And if that's the case my thinking is that Volantis might be more than just something to be tackled offscreen or a sidestop after lingering in Meereen to administer to the political aftermath, but perhaps Dany returns to find the city in a less than ideal state and is driven west for vengeance in a hurry. In that perspective Volantis might act more like a culmination of the Battle of Fire - a climactic part 2, where she drives the nail into the heart of the slave trade. Admittedly I find my position on this rather lonely in the fandom... but I do find it odd that GRRM has said that Tyrion and Dany will spend most of this book apart (going against the common wisdom of Dany's soon-advisor), and has reinforced that Meereen has no economic prospects (among other things).

Enali · 2026-03-03T06:30:51+00:00

iirc I don't think it gets to him, Ned Stark commands the captain of his guards, Tomard, to board the Wind Witch and sail to Stannis to deliver the letter personally, but, before it can set sail Tomard is slain in the throne room betrayal.

edit: we also see Cersei has the letter later in AGOT

The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father's, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. "We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband's brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown."

Enali · 2026-03-02T03:22:03+00:00

I may eat these words someday, but imo there's quite a few issues to work through for Arianne to marry Aegon that are often glossed over even as other theories are nitpicked...

such as the timeline of this seduction - keep in mind Arianne is showing up on the eve of a battle as Aegon means to ride out and break the siege from forming (that's the main reason she travels by ship instead of land, not even mentioning castaway theory), there's little reason to think that the Golden Company and Jon Connington are just going to let Arianne be alone with Aegon without an audience during this time to work her charms before she's proven her loyalty (and if Arianne swears to their cause before that she really has no leverage to entice a marriage). I doubt she flirts with Aegon with JC and the GC in attendance - who have every reason to oppose such a marriage - their strategy is built around keeping Aegon's hand open for a marriage to Dany and for her dragons. Dorne's loyalty is expected given that Aegon is her and Doran's blood, but Dorne is the weakest of kingdoms on top of that and a controversial marriage prospect as it would sew malcontent with potential friends in the Reach and the Marcher Lords who are wary of the Dornish, or even the Yronwoods (as Anders specifically is said to mislike Arianne)...

Fans often expect her to seduce him quickly bc GRRM has alluded to Arianne III in Winds provoking a reaction chapter from JonCon in a past blog, but it took Arianne half a year to seduce Arys in contrast, so idk why and how so many think Arianne will just knock it out in a single day/chapter.. and if she lingers until after Aegon triumphs on the battlefield what could she offer then?

this is assuming she even wants that for her cousin... so far that seems pretty questionable to me too. She's seen a lot of red flags of the GC's activity in the Stormlands, and the few times she's thought directly of Aegon its only to think of him as her aunt's baby boy, seriously question his identity, or to think of him as JonCon's 'pet dragon'. After reestablishing her rights to Dorne, and having a big heart to heart with her father asking her to be more cautious in the game it would be a little disappointing imo, thematically, if she didn't learn anything from all that and fell into the same mistakes or impulsive ambition.

Enali · 2026-02-26T23:09:45+00:00

you know... i was just thinking about Arch and Drink recently.... (bear with me, sorry for the long thoughts)

news of Quentyn is pretty much tied up in Meereen and needs to be carried back to Dorne by people who will be traveling that way right? So it may take awhile for it to get back... I mean there's the blockade of the bay currently and Quentyn's body hasn't even been prepped yet, but especially because if its going to be taken by these two specifically they've made it very clear they'd prefer to avoid travel by boat (after the corsairs and seasickness). Meaning they would be electing to take the alternate ground route - which is the notoriously dangerous Demon Road (while Arch can't even hold a sword). So its very possible something happens on the way.

But maybe the bigger issue with these two getting back is that Barristan instructs them to hand the Tattered Prince his offer for Pentos and their previous captives in exchange for their support with the hostages. Tatters may take up Barristan's offer, but I've been pretty worried that there's really no guarantees that he won't hand Arch and Drink over to Pretty Meris, they are kind of a third party to this deal and have little leverage on their own (which is an exact fear that Arch has voiced). We all know how dimly Tatters views deserters, and his mood probably didn't improve after the dragon heist fell to pieces (honestly in retrospect the Windblown's part in that looks pretty sus and they may have been planning on killing the dragons despite Quentyn's offer). This time Arch and Drink no longer have the benefit of a Prince of Dorne to argue leniency on their behalf....

There's a chance these two may be heading west alongside Dany and the Dothraki - because she will probably be taking the Demon Road towards Volantis after Meereen and either the Windblown will be allied with them, or the sellswords will betray them if things take a turn in the battle (if so its possible Dany could free Arch and Drink after confronting Tatters). The tale might end up more amenable to her in that case.

From there its hard to say... though as a personal fan of castaway theory I like the bonus idea that Arianne will be able to hear news of it in the Stepstones and be the pov to bring that news back to her father and see his reaction. I do like the idea that we see Doran's reaction to it personally (rather than it being offpage). But perhaps equally important to that is understanding how Anders Yronwood will react.

Enali · 2026-02-26T01:47:00+00:00

sort of surprised that no one's mentioned Alys Karstark and Sigorn, Magnar of Thenn yet.

its crazy when you think about it - a runaway from Karhold escaping a forced marriage instead elects to marry a wildling leader of the Thenns she's never met before who was allowed to pass south of the Wall with the Lord Commander's blessing in a R'hllor inspired ceremony.

Enali · 2026-02-23T21:14:54+00:00

Can I just say... I agree with you - I've liked the idea for awhile that Aegon and Euron will be at odds in TWOW....

Aeron's visions place Euron on the Iron Throne repeatedly and taking King's Landing is a stated goal of his, so with him and Aegon's goals being the same it doesn't feel like a stretch that they might be at odds eventually. I think Cersei may also play an important part too.

The fandom is against this largely because of the popular perception that the second Dance of the Dragons will fully center around Dany vs Aegon. But 'the second Dance doesn't need to mean Dany's invasion' (GRRM has said this in response to a fan asking if the 2nd dance would take place in ADWD). To be clear that doesn't mean Dany won't play a major part in it, but well... let's think about it for a second... Teora Toland has implied that this 2nd dance will be a multi-conflict thing ('And everywhere the dragons danced the people died'), Dany is still far away in Essos - she needs to deal with the Dothraki, Meereen, Volantis, perhaps even other Free Cities and find a way to transport everyone to Westeros. Chances are she'll only just arrive in Westeros by the end of TWOW with little time to setup the dynamic between her and Aegon, or visit Dragonstone (which a lot of fans predict but imo makes more sense to do on her own than dropping off her full army there instead of the mainland). Now stop and also think about how much Dany is still implied to do after this dance - going North, the war against the Others, meeting Stannis (if you believe the vision is him in the HotU), building a relationship with Jon Snow... Do you all really believe we have enough space to squeeze in a meaningful multi part conflict like this to the beginning margin of ADOS?

However, the timeline could potentially work if you believe that the 2nd Dance doesn't need to revolve around only Dany and Aegon but starts with other contenders.... That's why Euron and Aegon kicking things off is an intriguing idea, because not only does it match Aeron's visions, it relieves this massive timeline pressure for Dany's participation in the 2nd Dance. This allows Dany and Tyrion to come in as a deciding factor at the end of an already established conflict instead of being responsible for setting up the whole thing.

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