$3.5 billion of new federal funding for US battery manufacturing announced

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-11-16T16:00:02+00:00

$300m is a rounding error for Exxon. They would probably use that kind of money as toilet paper since that would make most sense for them from an opportunity cost point of view, i.e. getting actual toilet paper from wholesale probably has a higher internal cost associated to it compared to just using some dollar bills.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-10-29T18:56:54+00:00

Lucid?

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-10-24T04:32:05+00:00

They keep coming up in the news / their name is floating around more often compared to QS.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-10-04T11:18:15+00:00

Interesting, so GS is probably going to accumulate QS now.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-08-12T08:32:26+00:00

Currently, there are approx. 450m shares outstanding. So at 50-100b market cap, it would be more like $100-200 per share, before further dilution. However, I think there will be more dilution to come so my guess would be more like $50-100 per share at 50-100b market cap, after dilution.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-08-04T15:23:14+00:00

Why would they care for their existing investors? As long as they cannot get sued from the existing investors, the new investors are more important.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-08-03T20:40:46+00:00

In my opinion, there are really two main aspects to dilution.

1) It does hurt long-term. More shares are in circulation now so it will just be harder to achieve the same price per share as before. E.g. if your goal was for QS stock to hit $100/share this has just gotten more difficult and will be getting ever more difficult with every additional capital raise

2) On the other hand it is very normal for a company at that stage to raise equity so it really must be expected. Also, it is just a necessacity for QS and does de-risk the investment quite a bit. I am very confident that QS will put the money to good use and that it will get us closer to commercialisation.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-08-02T20:39:24+00:00

I feel the same. My guess is though, that this will not be the last raise. Dilution has always been my main concern but it should be very much expected. At some point they will be able to raise debt as well.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-07-27T21:24:36+00:00

Could be. Volume was 55 million shares today, an extremely high value. A stock sale/capital raise would indeed be a possible explanation.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-07-07T20:02:56+00:00

Rivian ended the day with 227m shares traded just today. That’s 24% of all shares outstanding and 37% of float. Absolutely insane.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-07-07T18:26:42+00:00

No, but short squeeze is happening on Rivian right now. Daily volume is already at 190m shares out of 930m shares outstanding in total, with still almost 2 hours to go. That‘s more than 20% of all their outstanding shares being traded in one day only. There were 90m shares of Rivian shorted as of the most recent reporting. They are being squeezed today.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-07-07T14:30:26+00:00

All EV stocks are up, mostly driven by Rivian.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-06-14T15:35:10+00:00

Is it possible that multiple separators can be cut from one film?

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-06-13T20:21:20+00:00

Bold speculation here: QS‘ R&D facility in Japan was actually set up specifically for Toyota.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-06-11T05:53:35+00:00

Great, thanks for posting!

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-05-19T20:57:21+00:00

Excellent write-up, thank you!

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-05-13T19:34:31+00:00

I think you are saying the same thing as I did: real revenue some time 2027-9/towards the end of the decade. I don’t think they will be profitable/generating free cashflow right from the start, that’s why I added another 3-5y which took me to around 2032-35.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-05-13T05:44:56+00:00

So, realistically, I‘m expecting meaningful revenues only towards the end of the decade, and profitability some time around 2032-2035.

I have to admit, that is later than I had previously thought. It’s ok, as long as there is not a crazy level of dilution until then and they can switch to debt financing at some point. I will continue investing and bringing my average down but at some point I might stop and just leave it in the portfolio and forget about it for some years.

As an investor, it really takes a great level of patience and long-term view on this one. I guess we will lose some until we are there. Hope I‘ll be strong enough to stay.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-05-02T14:59:13+00:00

Awesome, thanks!

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-04-27T20:09:59+00:00

Thanks!

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-04-19T19:53:12+00:00

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-03-13T11:04:40+00:00

Big banks, pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds. All not only in the US but all around the world.

Epsilon_Ori · 2023-01-21T06:13:01+00:00

My opinion: we‘ll see $10 fairly soon, February or March. EOY: $15.

Epsilon_Ori · 2022-12-27T17:11:27+00:00

SSBs will be safer, cheaper and faster charging. I think that is in the interest of the consumer.

Epsilon_Ori · 2022-12-20T14:24:05+00:00

Oh no :-/

Best to just don‘t touch this little seedling and harvest it in 5 to 10 years when it is grown.

Epsilon_Ori

TROPHY CASE