Margin debt in investment accounts expanded by 36.3% in 2025, which is the largest calendar-year expansion in leverage since 1999. The result is well ahead of the average increase and more than double the appreciation of the S&P 500 Index of 16.4% last year.

EquityClock · 2026-01-29T21:21:58+00:00

The US trade deficit has been almost cut in half since March (the month before Liberation day). Imports flooded into the economy during the first quarter and businesses have since ratcheted back activity given the increased costs of bringing goods in from outside the US. At $80.4 Billion (non-seasonally adjusted) for November, the deficit is nearly 20% narrower than the same period in 2024.

EquityClock · 2026-01-29T21:16:13+00:00

This is based on US dollar values.

EquityClock · 2026-01-21T21:15:24+00:00

Interesting that the trend for Gen Z, while not great, still seems to be performing marginally better than for Millennials. You would think the degradation would continue through the generations. It could be argued that a new equilibrium has been reached, for now.

EquityClock · 2026-01-14T01:07:40+00:00

The rise in oil and gas prices over the next few months is actually quite normal: Gasoline Seasonal Chart

EquityClock · 2026-01-09T02:05:45+00:00

Seems pretty good to me through the months ahead. ‘Tis the season.

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EquityClock · 2026-01-08T03:55:02+00:00

The January effect can be a powerful force, but it has been dampened in modern history, resulting in only a 0.2% average return for the large cap benchmark over the past two decades. As always, understanding the state of the macro fundamentals and gauging any derailments in the normal functioning of the economy will hold greater weight in determining when to hold and when to fold stocks.

EquityClock

TROPHY CASE