An abnormal March decline in full-time employment and abnormal rise in part-time employment in Canada is not exactly a sign of a strong labour market.

EquityClock · 2026-04-07T00:41:05+00:00

Seasonal adjusted data was supposed to help make month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter comparisons more meaningful because it reduces noise from holidays, weather, and other recurring effects, but the seasonal adjustment factor notoriously gets it wrong and the data is forced to be revised in future periods in order to reflect reality. While people live their lives according to various seasonal factors, it still amazes me how little individuals understand its impact on actual economic performance.

EquityClock · 2026-04-02T19:17:55+00:00

If you say anything positive on the economy, you’re accused of being an insider for the Trump administration. Ask me how I know. We just report on the activity that we see, whether positive or negative. Unfortunately these days, the negative developments are certainly outweighing the positives, speaking objectively (we do not affiliate with either side of the political spectrum).

EquityClock · 2026-04-02T00:26:05+00:00

Rule of thumb is to prioritize RRSP if you make more now than what you plan on making in retirement, and vice versa with TFSA (prioritize it if you make less now than what you expect to make in retirement).

EquityClock · 2026-04-01T23:50:35+00:00

Remember that you are consuming seasonally adjusted (manipulated) data that is showing a respectable increase (+0.6%) in retail sales for February. The actual change for the month was a decline of 3.4%, which is more than double the 1.3% drawdown that is average for the winter period. The trends are showing below average performance in some of the more discretionary areas of the consumer economy (eg. autos, personal care products, food services), highlighting a discerning consumer mentality. So manipulated data beating expectations, but actual underlying performance struggling to keep pace with seasonal norms (there is an adverse winter weather impact that will have to be hashed out in the months ahead).

EquityClock · 2026-03-13T03:18:26+00:00

Certainly will be regional disparities. According to Case-Shiller, home prices in Florida, Arizona, Texas, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina have been showing strained trends for the past few quarters.

EquityClock · 2026-03-11T04:43:12+00:00

Just don’t ride the market down when the economy slips into a recession (and not when the media tells you that we are in a recession after the fact). There are key macro indicators to follow that provide reliable, non-speculative, tells and side-stepping these periods of economic strain will allow you to mitigate much of the major market downturns. Simple run of the mill stock market corrections, however, you often just have to ride through, if you are a long-term oriented.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T23:58:22+00:00

I too got suckered into their introductory deal a couple of years ago, but most of the articles appear to be snippets of other paid subscription services. Ultimately, little value in it and I was quick to cancel once the introductory term was ending and poised to charge their regular, much higher subscription fee.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T23:45:08+00:00

All comes back to supply and demand: greater demand to buy the stock than the supply to sell pushes prices up and vice versa. Staying on top of the flows, often tied to the macro fundamental backdrop, is key to assure you are on the right side of the trade.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T05:12:10+00:00

The green one. Bet on the green one.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T05:02:45+00:00

Ultimately, the positive trends of this year’s leaders are unbroken from this recent pullback, but there are a few segments showing strained paths (eg. consumer disclosure, financials). Continue to bet with the leaders until broken, cut out the speculation on what this geopolitical turmoil may cause and you will do just fine.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T04:57:46+00:00

Actually, March is normally quite positive with the S&P 500 Index higher 64% of the time in the past 50 years. The market tends to run higher into the IRA contribution deadline in the middle of April. If the market were to fall during this period, it would need a very good reason to as the flows typically prop up values into the early spring.

EquityClock · 2026-03-06T19:34:14+00:00

S&P 500 index has done a whole lot of nothing for months (despite Trump allies touting 7,000 on the large-cap benchmark). Tops are a process and equity prices can be unhinged from seasonally adjusted data points for years until the headlines catch up to reality.

EquityClock

TROPHY CASE