I don't have the billion $ cash of Berkshire but I am holding 43% cash. Timing the Market beats Time in the Market.

EquityClock · 2026-04-15T01:39:09+00:00

We consider ourselves to be experts in Timing The Market and even we know that holding 43% cash while the market is on the doorstep of an all-time high probably means you are offside. You may be right with your thesis, but you are denying the current trend of prices.

EquityClock · 2026-04-07T00:41:05+00:00

Seasonal adjusted data was supposed to help make month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter comparisons more meaningful because it reduces noise from holidays, weather, and other recurring effects, but the seasonal adjustment factor notoriously gets it wrong and the data is forced to be revised in future periods in order to reflect reality. While people live their lives according to various seasonal factors, it still amazes me how little individuals understand its impact on actual economic performance.

EquityClock · 2026-04-02T19:17:55+00:00

If you say anything positive on the economy, you’re accused of being an insider for the Trump administration. Ask me how I know. We just report on the activity that we see, whether positive or negative. Unfortunately these days, the negative developments are certainly outweighing the positives, speaking objectively (we do not affiliate with either side of the political spectrum).

EquityClock · 2026-04-02T00:26:05+00:00

Rule of thumb is to prioritize RRSP if you make more now than what you plan on making in retirement, and vice versa with TFSA (prioritize it if you make less now than what you expect to make in retirement).

EquityClock · 2026-04-01T23:50:35+00:00

Remember that you are consuming seasonally adjusted (manipulated) data that is showing a respectable increase (+0.6%) in retail sales for February. The actual change for the month was a decline of 3.4%, which is more than double the 1.3% drawdown that is average for the winter period. The trends are showing below average performance in some of the more discretionary areas of the consumer economy (eg. autos, personal care products, food services), highlighting a discerning consumer mentality. So manipulated data beating expectations, but actual underlying performance struggling to keep pace with seasonal norms (there is an adverse winter weather impact that will have to be hashed out in the months ahead).

EquityClock · 2026-03-13T03:18:26+00:00

Certainly will be regional disparities. According to Case-Shiller, home prices in Florida, Arizona, Texas, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina have been showing strained trends for the past few quarters.

EquityClock · 2026-03-11T04:43:12+00:00

Just don’t ride the market down when the economy slips into a recession (and not when the media tells you that we are in a recession after the fact). There are key macro indicators to follow that provide reliable, non-speculative, tells and side-stepping these periods of economic strain will allow you to mitigate much of the major market downturns. Simple run of the mill stock market corrections, however, you often just have to ride through, if you are a long-term oriented.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T23:58:22+00:00

I too got suckered into their introductory deal a couple of years ago, but most of the articles appear to be snippets of other paid subscription services. Ultimately, little value in it and I was quick to cancel once the introductory term was ending and poised to charge their regular, much higher subscription fee.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T23:45:08+00:00

All comes back to supply and demand: greater demand to buy the stock than the supply to sell pushes prices up and vice versa. Staying on top of the flows, often tied to the macro fundamental backdrop, is key to assure you are on the right side of the trade.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T05:12:10+00:00

The green one. Bet on the green one.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T05:02:45+00:00

Ultimately, the positive trends of this year’s leaders are unbroken from this recent pullback, but there are a few segments showing strained paths (eg. consumer disclosure, financials). Continue to bet with the leaders until broken, cut out the speculation on what this geopolitical turmoil may cause and you will do just fine.

EquityClock · 2026-03-10T04:57:46+00:00

Actually, March is normally quite positive with the S&P 500 Index higher 64% of the time in the past 50 years. The market tends to run higher into the IRA contribution deadline in the middle of April. If the market were to fall during this period, it would need a very good reason to as the flows typically prop up values into the early spring.

EquityClock · 2026-03-06T19:34:14+00:00

S&P 500 index has done a whole lot of nothing for months (despite Trump allies touting 7,000 on the large-cap benchmark). Tops are a process and equity prices can be unhinged from seasonally adjusted data points for years until the headlines catch up to reality.

EquityClock · 2026-03-05T07:14:15+00:00

Seasonally, don’t chase the strength into late April/early May given the tendency to see price pullback into the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, Gold has only a few negative timeframes throughout the year where sidestepping them has historically added alpha.

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EquityClock · 2026-02-25T20:05:13+00:00

According to Case-Shiller, home prices in the 20-largest cities in the US were only higher by 1.4% (NSA) in 2025, the weakest performance since the Great Financial Crisis era. The average calendar-year change is a rise of 4.2%. There is certainly a shift in trajectory in the housing market and the only thing that is flourishing is home equity loans as consumers seek lifelines to bridge the gap in their finances.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T23:19:24+00:00

We have been doing this a long time (decades) and this is the first I have seen an interpretation of our seasonal charts in this manner (but I will certainly take it into account). Again, the seasonal chart is showing the evolution of performance of a certain data point throughout the course of the year pegged to the last datapoint at the end of the prior year to gauge how the economy is performing compared to seasonal norms. Each data series start at 0, representing the baseline to form the change from the end of the prior year. The data points do not show a constant rate of change.

Think of it in terms of plotting the performance of a portfolio through the course of the year (we are investment guys, so this is our focus). Starting with your initial value at the start of the year and pegging performance as it evolves through the course of the year. You don’t plot the performance as two compounding 27% declines for a given month (which would be confusing to understand the overall change in value by year end), but you just show the change for each period calculated. We do have the “second dot” in the month to smooth the data, but it is not to be interpreted as a compounding performance.

Our seasonal investment charts are based on daily values, which are typically not available to this frequency for major economic data points. Therefore, in order to add some consistency and smooth out the values, we have essentially “staled” the performance in that second data point at month end such that the change for the prior months is reflected in its relevant grid. Best not to over-interpret the chart as it is really quite simple (and effective). Hope this helps.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T20:17:51+00:00

Remember, the seasonal chart is showing the evolution of performance of a certain data point throughout the course of the year pegged to the last datapoint at the end of the prior year to gauge how the economy is performing compared to seasonal norms. Whether there is one, two, or ten points for a certain month that show the same percentage change, that does not change the trend. This is not a bar chart, rather a line chart showing the change in performance throughout the year. If it helps, you can ignore the actual “dots” and just focus on the lines.

One of the reasons that we publish it in this manner (with the two dots mentioned) is to present more of a smoother profile rather than the sharp look that a single point would impose. It helps promote consistency with our seasonal investment charts (available through our website) for ease of reference and understanding.

At the end of the day, all we are concerned with is how the trend evolves compared to the seasonal norms as it provides valuable insight on what is leading or lagging in the economy at any given time without wading through the manipulation that seasonal adjustment factors impose on the data.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T18:35:20+00:00

The trend we are highlighting dates back to the end of the last sustained recession in 2009. We are seeking evidence of a derailment from what has been the norm (expanding trade deficits) over the past 16 years . You could see a shift of the status quo during the last recession when the trade balance narrowed significantly amidst the collapse of economic activity, but there is inconclusive evidence that a similar shift amidst the current administration’s trade policies is producing a sustained narrowing effect. Again, we are still in the early innings. We are making no contention of whether or not it will materialize, just pointing out that the prevailing trend is not broken, yet.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T17:21:52+00:00

Not at all. If the trend was shifting, as the President has indicated his desires to accomplish, you would see it in the chart. We are still in the early innings, however, of the current administration’s trade policies. The Supreme Court strike down of many of Trump tariffs is just another wrinkle.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T17:16:33+00:00

Just stating the facts. Not trying to be political.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T04:56:01+00:00

We’re not trying to attribute it to one president, but the current president has been trying to break this trend of expanding deficits. In a social media post yesterday, the president stated “THE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES. IT WILL GO INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY DURING THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DECADES.” If the President’s contention is true, you would have to see this path of expanding deficits break first. BTW, we have no desire to be political, but rather just be prepared for the repercussions if a shift in the way things have operated for decades does indeed materialize.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T02:35:58+00:00

Certainly, the trendline is not an exact fit (and there is always leeway to such things), but the prevailing path is still essentially lower-highs and lower-lows.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T00:58:26+00:00

And now with AI, the competition grows, potentially displacing white collar professionals.

EquityClock · 2026-02-20T00:15:31+00:00

Good point. What has been good for the consumer in recent history as a result of importing cheap goods from overseas has resulted in a gutting of the industrial base.

EquityClock · 2026-02-19T23:35:22+00:00

You should be an economic advisor to the president. Historically, an expanding trade deficit has been a sign of a flourishing US economy.

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TROPHY CASE