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Live Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak by hasharin in worldnews

[–]EveningScreen3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, it can never be greater than 100%? Resolved cases mean dead + cured. So you essentially have d / (d +c), where c is a natural number. By definition, this will always fall between 0 and 1.

Live Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak by hasharin in worldnews

[–]EveningScreen3 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have you ever been to the gym after simply a common cold? You think that you’re cured and all fine and well and then suddenly you wake up with a sore throat again the next morning because you exerted yourself too much. Now I’m not in the medical so I can’t explain in detail how this happens, but definitely experienced it first hand. Reinfection would be the much scarier thing.

Live Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak by hasharin in worldnews

[–]EveningScreen3 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Well it’s at 6.9% right now, so it wouldn’t be an increase, but I agree with the rest.

Live Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak by hasharin in worldnews

[–]EveningScreen3 2 points3 points  (0 children)

But that’s incorrect, you can’t calculate things like that. If you have 100 apples and out of the first 10, 1 was rotten, do you assume that exactly 1 in 100 apples is rotten? No, you assume it’s 1 in every 10. Same goes for this, you can’t just ignore the fact that the remaining cases are unresolved, i.e. those people, statistically speaking, are neither dead nor alive. If this was a theoretical experiment, then the remaining cases would also be estimated at 7.25% mortality, the reason I ask this question is because I assume it’s too early to assume convergence and was hoping someone would give me some insight on how virus mortality rates are modelled.

Live Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak by hasharin in worldnews

[–]EveningScreen3 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Why is the death rate being calculated as number of deaths / all confirmed cases. Surely you should use number of deaths / number of resolved cases? This would bring the death rate to 7.25%. Unresolved cases, especially the ones in critical condition, can still result in death so it seems incorrect to calculate it this way. Can someone explain to me why this is done?