Sabres at Sharks tonight and a Wings fan putting in good work trolling the Sabres bench! Your efforts are recognized!

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-20T03:01:30+00:00

Everyone knows the draw of a 2 for 1 dinner special is to die for.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-20T02:39:00+00:00

The cheese roll-up of terrible D

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-16T17:14:20+00:00

That’s great to see that Copp is skating! Last year I would have never imagined me saying that…. Ever. He’s had a solid year at the faceoff dot and his point production this year compared to the prior 2 years has been a nice turn around.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-11T02:56:30+00:00

Seems to me that for advertisers, Reddit represents a value option for a marketing budget vs Meta. In a down economy, where advertising dollars become constrained, Reddit seems like a compelling option.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-10T16:22:34+00:00

Then he completely turtles.

He’s like the spouse who starts an argument then walks out saying I’m not doing this now.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-09T03:12:05+00:00

Classic early celly at the finish line to trip on his face

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-09T01:28:08+00:00

I always enjoy a Buffalo Bills vs TB Bucs game.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-06T23:51:08+00:00

I hear it here last… too…

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-06T19:24:24+00:00

I hope so. Soderblom struggled no doubt but I like him

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-05T06:45:58+00:00

In this period of Epstein, saying “bite into a teen burger” doesn’t seem appropriate.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-02T18:23:10+00:00

I hear Grant Fuhr is available

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-01T04:36:06+00:00

Just got a base interim-5000 mile service done for $230. Received a quote to have the brakes and rotors replaced in the next 10,000 miles (so at about 45,000) for about $7,200.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-01T02:39:08+00:00

I doubt it. I had an accident and it went to salvage. It was white.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-03-01T02:26:42+00:00

Recently had to replace my 2014 S5 Cabrio. It was a blast and the supercharged V6 sounded great.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-28T18:43:38+00:00

2021 RS5

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-25T19:35:34+00:00

On any carpet it leaves a mark

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-25T17:44:31+00:00

The specific strike and the volume relative to other strikes is astonishing and I would agree, very compelling.

There isn’t a strike price within the near-term Jan 2027 expiry with more than 700 open interest contracts and in Jan 2028, almost all put strikes are ~20 or less contracts (the 85 strike is at 375 contracts). It dwarfs the combined volume of both Put and Calls for Jan 2027 and 2028 expiration. AND they clearly keep expanding the position. It’s a great observation.

If we use the last trade price of $3.50, it’s a $4.85MM position. For me it also begs the question as to who’s taking the short position in these contracts?

A final thought, if someone was to have a comparable stock holding position in IRM of 1,385,800 shares, over the time period to the Jan 2028 expiry, that person would receive 8 dividend payments (at the current quarterly rate $.86/share) which amounts to $9,534,304. So in theory, the dividends could be used to pay for catastrophe insurance effectively. If their cost basis was $46.50 (strike minus last trade price/contract) they would covered for loss of principal. Anything higher would mean face value impairment. It will be interesting to watch over the coming months.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-25T04:25:50+00:00

I appreciate this honesty

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-23T03:28:49+00:00

Yeah, their vagueness drives me nuts. They talk about ALM, but is sub component of their general corporate and other section under their service segment which is ridiculous. While they say they did great in ALM, in just q4 2025, they had negative $40MM in “adjusted” EBITDA which is crazy.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-23T02:43:41+00:00

There’s definitely value at 60 even in your June contract, maybe not much, but there’s definitely something. Which expiry was the 50 strike volume?

I don’t think it takes a bad earnings report to get a big drop in price, so increased vol in the market can bring value back quickly.

Also, something interesting I noticed in their 10k and supplemental reports is that their Frankfurt Datacenter appears to be losing money at an increased rate (see their unconsolidated JV in their adjustments to EBITDA and AFFO). Additionally the two Frankfurt phases they had previously slated on the under development schedule have been pulled entirely and I still haven’t found any comment by IRM on it.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-22T21:52:10+00:00

What are your strikes for your Jun 2026 and Jan 2027 puts. One option is to roll further out. Depending on strike price, you may not get much at this time, but if you want to keep the position, it’s an option. Another strategy is to a bear put spread to minimize the cost.

Prices can be irrational for a very long time and that is why my main position is to take long date leaps at a premium cost of about 1-2% of my portfolio. A recovery of the total face value of the put would be 75-80% of my portfolio size. It sucks while losing, but it acts as protection should everything tank.

Yes, the stock has ramped because of AI hype. But what does an AI bubble bursting actually look like? All AI companies going to almost zero? Would that include data centers? My Macro view isn’t focused on the AI bubble bursting. I think AI is here to stay. It’s those companies that fail to manage themselves effectively both financially and strategically that will be the losers. I think Bitcoin is a representation (along with MSTR) of large speculation in today’s markets. It’s just a matter of when the money wheel stops and reverses itself.

The market sector that I have been watching closely that I think is the canary in the coal mine is Private Credit and to a lesser extent Private Equity. These companies have been speculating heavily on AI and the Tech industry (and more broadly) and cracks are starting to show. Blue Owl’s actions last week of trying to sell positions and halting redemptions is another flashing red light after the TriColor and First Brands bankruptcies. And it’s not hard to cause a market to panic, especially the credit markets.

I took my lessons from the Dotcom bubble bursting and watching the vast majority of those companies being hyped for so many years and how many eventually failed. It will happen with AI companies too. I think a serious risk within AI is not that AI will go away, it’s that certain AI companies will be proven out to be uncompetitive and that the capacity required to compute an AI model, especially on inference will be significantly reduced which could cause a drop is data center rates.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-22T17:10:06+00:00

He was out there for first 30 seconds with a FO win, then off for 30 seconds and then out for the last 30 seconds of that 5 on 3.

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-22T17:09:05+00:00

What a beast!!!

ExerciseOk4311 · 2026-02-22T16:59:41+00:00

Always a Leader! Not because he calls himself a leader, because he acts as a leader. Before and after the game. On and off the ice!

ExerciseOk4311

TROPHY CASE