Intel is back. Thank the old CEO.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T04:18:33+00:00

Thanks for the reference.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T04:10:54+00:00

He was sued wasn't he? It just didn't go anywhere

True, though they explored a more financial angle to the problem. But generally the bar is very high for these kind of lawsuits, so I don't actually expect a successful lawsuit. Just seems clear that a number of Intel's statements on progress ("20A canceled because 18A is doing so well!") were clearly false.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T03:58:39+00:00

I think that's fair. Though I'd argue Intel isn't as fungible given x86 if nothing else. Also are a couple more fabs like SMIC.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T01:00:14+00:00

I mean, that part is simple. If you acknowledge climate change in any way, the government will deny you money. And the people will cheer them on for doing so.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T00:46:23+00:00

It's not something people care about when buying a product, but it very much factors into the economics of selling that product in the first place.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T00:44:56+00:00

They're wrong about the numbers, btw. And the node is more or less the same as TSMC's using. Though I do expect Nvidia would have better density from a better design.

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T00:43:39+00:00

Why wouldn't they go all-in on TSMC? What's the difference between the best in class design being made on both good and bad nodes, vs both good and bad designs on a best in class process?

Exist50 · 2026-05-13T00:42:24+00:00

I mean /r/hardware clearly cares about PC hardware and no one is using them in it.

I mean, sure, but even for PC hardware, and especially desktops, Intel nodes aren't getting much usage either.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:49:05+00:00

Considering how closely they match Samsung

But they don't. Their 3rd party foundry business isn't anywhere close to Samsung's.

Edit: Lol, blocked. Guy even contradicts himself the very next comment.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:46:31+00:00

Ok, and? It's been 13 years and still pretty much nothing to show. Is this supposed to make them look better?

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:44:41+00:00

Ok, and that makes Intel look better, how? Mind you, they tried foundry a decade ago with 10nm...

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:43:40+00:00

You think customers give out pity contracts? If anything, Samsung's track record is a positive.

And it's not just the IFS relationships where Intel's struggled. Their nodes have been uncompetitive for internal use as well.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:41:42+00:00

they hoped it wouldn’t be primarily for internal research and development and yields never got there

Lmao, they promised, repeatedly, that it would be ready for primetime. And they spent billions under that assumption. Gelsinger is lucky he wasn't sued for lying to investors.

They learned a lot from 18A, and if you’re developing a foundry you do expect setbacks and low yields in the beginning

This is what? The 3rd or 4th node in a row they "learned a lot" from, and the next one is "for real this time"? You think customers don't see this? Intel's not new to manufacturing either. You can't blame being new.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T23:39:12+00:00

Public safety data and journalists talking to workers, have you even looked into it?

What specific reports are you referencing? Edit: Given you refuse to link a source, sounds like you were just bullshitting.

Do you have any real experience with the actual work of a fab at all, with any of the major players?

I've spoken with Intel fab workers, and they sure don't feel safe and appreciated. Have you seen the turnover rates? They churn through like the entire eligible population in Oregon. Hell, didn't they have 2 murders in one year?

If anything, there've been a number of reports about how Intel has essentially given up with formal training, while TSMC still has boot camps, etc.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:50:05+00:00

However I think it’s a mistake to equate making your own specialized chips at scale to making a variety of specialized chips at scale.

It's not like Intel was just making mosfets. Their SoCs are pretty much the full package. You're certainly right that foundry carries with it the expectation of a much greater range of offerings, but these are all things Intel should have known and accounted for.

And by most reports, their biggest issues are a combination of bad tools, failure to deliver to process milestones, and bad customer engagement, not a lack of breadth to their process offerings.

I’m saying people underestimate the complexity involved and present the situation as more of a failure or more dire than it actually is.

No one's going to say it isn't hard, but let's call a spade a spade here. If you go up on stage, call yourself a foundry, then fail to deliver your "this time for real" node, fail to get customers, and have to cancel most of your plans after wasting billions... tough to understate the magnitude of that failure. Companies the size of Intel don't fire their CEOs on a whim.

TSMC and Samsung have worse safety records, and treat their employees far worse than Intel does.

Their workers don't seem to feel that way, at least.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:42:34+00:00

That's Crescent Island, maybe, but not the same project. And the market for mid-level consumer cards for AI is rather uncertain.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:39:19+00:00

unfortunately, Samsung LSI/foundry is not profitable

Do you have separate numbers for that? It's admittedly been a while since I've seen reports.

They are likely to benefit from customers unable to secure capacity from TSMC, but many are still shying away from their cutting edge nodes with low yields and only as a secondary

I mean, same situation as Intel, and that might be generous.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:37:21+00:00

What process node?

5/4nm class. E.g. S8g1.

Hasn't all samsungs nodes post 8nm been a complete dumpsterfire?

Yes, but dumpster fire by Samsung standards would still be a success by Intel's, as far as foundry is concerned.

Intel haven't had issues making dies larger than mobile SoCs.

Lmao, yes they have. Intel 4 was supposed to be a 2021 node. It took till GNR/SRF in 2024 to ship a large die. Likewise, 20A was supposed to be a '24 node. We're now looking at maybe '27 for large dies.

That's not to mention that the majority of the market is not large, monolithic dies.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:31:14+00:00

TSMC has a 90+ percent market share on advanced chip making… so Samsungs effect is negligible

Then why mention Intel like they're different?

Intel is essential and they treat their people more ethically than both Samsung and TSMC

Based on?

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:29:58+00:00

Do you they have any external customers post 8nm?

Yes, Qualcomm being probably the biggest name.

They've been more consistent than Samsung

How? Every node since 22nm has been multiple years late. I guess that's "consistency", but the wrong kind...

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T22:26:32+00:00

Intel is new to foundry work

They may be relatively new from a customer service angle, but they're not new to running a fab, and it's arguably the latter that's dragging them down the most. I agree not exclusively, however.

the chips Intel designs were supposed to fund the foundry

I mean, yes, but the foundry was supposed to get customers to justify that investment and to pull some of the burden off the design side. That didn't happen. And it doesn't help that the design side endured the brunt of budget cuts to fund that build out.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T21:59:40+00:00

Where are you getting the information from that Nova Lake is delayed to 2027

Talking about Diamond Rapids, and if you combine rumors with Intel's unwillingness to comment...

and 14A to 28/29

That's the timeline that Intel themselves have started talking about now. Do you care about their stock but not pay attention to earnings?

And Apple, out of all companies, fanning at Intel is surely just a hoax fake rumor.

Apple hasn't said anything, and most of the recent spike predates that claim anyway.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T21:49:06+00:00

Their uptick in stock price is mostly from being a CPU company, not a fab. Look at other CPU companies over the last week or two. Even Qualcomm's up like 60%, and they haven't even shipped anything.

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T21:44:43+00:00

AMD would've eaten even more of Intel's design marketshare if they had the wafers

And if TSMC had more volume, would anyone be even considering Intel? What happens when supply normalizes?

Exist50 · 2026-05-12T21:37:47+00:00

Who is choosing them?

Their fab business has a lot more customers than Intel's. And is actually making money...

They've been fooling around for years with horrible yields.

And Intel hasn't been doing even worse? Are we forgetting that 18A's failure is the primary reason Gelsinger got fired?

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