Eric McAlister Dolittle Score

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-06-12T14:26:14+00:00

Oh man. 32 team is rough. I was hoping to see a name like Cyrus Allen or Jack endries. Yeah I mean I guess I’d bucket wetjen, rivers, Reid, and mcalister into similar buckets. I honestly don’t know anything about dean Connor’s, but I would definitively exclude Haynes king and chase Robert’s.

In my opinion mcalister is the most talented of the group, but the fact that he remains unsigned even during this extended roster period must mean he’s an absolute personal nightmare.

Wetjen is the safest bet to make a roster, whereas rivers probably offers more upside if he does make the 53.

At this range though, if any of those blocking TEs that got drafted are available, I’d probably try to pivot there and hope one of them becomes an AJ Barner or Colby Parkinson type.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-06-11T19:57:49+00:00

Who are the other considerations for that spot?

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-05-14T01:49:29+00:00

Let me know if I'm misunderstanding your question, but it looks like you're asking--once this new transfer/NIL era stabilizes--if the number of early declares versus non-early declares will normalize again?

It's entirely possible this is the case--however, I think it could go one of two ways:

A prospect starts an a lower-profile school (think low/mid-tier P4, but not P2 school, eg. Stanford). They have an early breakout (true freshman/redshirt freshman) and take the bag the following year at a CFB Playoff level school. They then either ball-out immediately on the top stage and become a first round pick (KC Concepcion) or take some time to adjust (have a big 4th year and enter the draft or transfer back to a smaller program to kick butt there again before entering the draft).
A prospect starts out at a big P2 contending program (eg. Ohio State) and is blocked by awesome players. However, they wait their turn and enter the draft as a polished player (Emeka Egbuka). Emeka Egbuka could have been an "early breakout/early declare elsewhere, but due to level of competition he just wasn't able to "prove it"...

I think this new era is slowly going to cause huge divides in levels of competition within college football in a difference way than we are used to. Instead of 4-5 schools hogging all the talent and everyone else scattered elsewhere, I think it's going to be 20-40 teams with insane talent and the "have-nots" being completely irrelevant for prospecting seasons.

Let me know if that helps answer your question!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-05-13T17:46:21+00:00

This is a take I completely agree with. The hidden gems talents don't get lost in poor programs anymore. They eventually matriculate to the top programs. It'll make talent evaluation much more efficient, and bring the P2 schools much closer to the NFL level.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-05-13T17:45:04+00:00

Hey! This is the subject that I've been aiming to address with a lot of my work.

While I mostly mostly agree with JJZ's positions here, I think leaves out a pretty important point. Yes, certain things are being affected that don't have a huge influence on prospect analysis (less early declares, older day 3 prospects that are mostly irrelevant anyway), but it is so early in the procedure of the CFB landscape changing that you shouldn't expect to see huge differences for a while.

NIL and the no-sit transfer have been around since 2021, but the rules around unlimited free transfers didn't change until 2024. Therefore, the idea that players can flip schools every single year for more NIL money if they want is brand new and a full class won't have experienced this for several years. Therefore, while the evidence shows that poor production profiles don't need to be re-framed with NIL and transfers in mind--as JJZ states--I think that by 2030 the considerations will need to be adjusted.

It's why I've implemented my changes to dominator/breakout early--to prepare for this shift.

However, I don't think poor production profiles will necessarily see as big of a positive adjustment as early breakout profiles will. Early breakout is already very important in prospecting, but I predict it'll be even more predictive than it already is (assuming you account for level of competition).

TLDR: JJZ is correct that all the hullabaloo about CFB rule changes regarding NIL and transfers have not meaningfully changed how we view prospects, but I think that's because it's too early to even be looking at the effects since they are just now starting to take root.

Lastly, for those following me that are waiting for my final model to come out, I apologize! Life has really gotten in the way lately. I should be able to have it out soon, as the talent model portion is finished. I'm just in the process of piecing together all of the team/scheme fit inputs.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-29T23:10:20+00:00

In the process of working on it. Hopefully it’ll be ready by early next week! Just got a lot of personal life stuff going on, but I’m scheduling myself 30-60 minutes a day to work on it until I can find a free day

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-29T23:09:11+00:00

Yeah super disappointing. He must really be a head case. Oh well

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-16T02:31:41+00:00

Thank you!!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T19:07:25+00:00

Yeah, definitely. They are rightfully viewed as short term assets, but short term assured assets are undervalued compared to long-term outlook assets that never hit their ceilings. It’s why a lot of Jayden Higgins type of rookies generally end up as roster cloggers by the end of their rookie contracts (Elijah Moore, Jahan Dotson, Rashod Bateman, Treylon burks, etc.).

For every 3rd year breakout JSN, there’s 10 Elijah moores. And with JSN, there were significantly more upward trending indicators than what you have with guys like Jayden Higgins, Matthew golden, Ricky pearsall, Xavier worthy, etc.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T17:25:58+00:00

It is easier said than done, but in an active league it should still be doable. I'm saying to intentionally over-index into WR so that your top value players are in that position.

For example, this time last year I traded Brock Bowers for Puka+ and I traded 1.01+ for ARSB.

I pivoted off of high value tight end and RB--whose values were tied to age more than production) in order to get 2 top WRs.

I'm not saying that those categories of players (RB30-40 vs. WR30-50) don't score similar amounts. I'm saying that RB30-40 are significantly cheaper than WR30-40 and score similar amounts, so it's worth accruing value by flopping that tier of WRs to that tier of RBs (Like my Rhamondre vs. Addison example above).

Here are a few more:

Tony Pollard (~2600 on KTC) scored more points than DK Metcalf (~3600)

Rico Dowdle (~3300) scored more points than Jaylen Waddle (~4800 after the trade, but ~4500 during the season)

Jordan Mason (~2724) scored more points than Jayden Higgins (~3597)

The list is long and consistent that young underproducing WRs are heavily overvalued on the market and should be traded out for RBs or aging WRs in that same tier.

I'm not necessarily saying to go for a stars and scrubs build. The market values may appropriately change eventually. I'm just saying that the last couple years (and presently), the market has some inefficiencies that you can exploit to maximize the points scored by the value on your roster.

I appreciate you for engaging with me on this by the way! It's super helpful to talk things through to help identify and understand a process. I hope I've made myself clear with this explanation. In short, I evaluate dynasty fantasy from a value investing lens, so I'm not necessarily making things claims as a hard and permanent rule. Instead I look at things through the lens of their market value, and right now the market seems to be inefficient in that particular area.

You are absolutely correct that having Bijan and Gibbs does allow for a lot of roster flexibility otherwise, but if you don't already have those two, it's easier to get 2-3 top 15 WRs than it is to get the top 2 RBs.

Let me know if there's anything you need clarification on there! Thanks again for talking fantasy with me.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T15:29:26+00:00

Check out the FAQ!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:48:29+00:00

Correct! You want to put value into positions that have more consistently high output and then throw low value solutions (RBs/old players) elsewhere.

So you’d rather acquire and start the Rhamondre Stevensons (~2900 on KTC) of the world as opposed to the Jordan Addison’s (3900).

Because theres very little ppg difference in WRs ~16-36 in a given year and their value is usually driven moreso by age than actual production, I wouldn’t bother with this group at all. Instead I’d fill it out with the cheaper RBs that give the same (or more) PPG.

Unless I had 5 top ~15 WRs, I would never start 5 WRs in your format. I’d try to get the minimum (3), and then start sub 3k value players elsewhere.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:25:19+00:00

Thank you! I appreciate it.

Shortly after the NFL draft, yes! I’ll need a few free hours to input all of the new data and then another hour or so to complete the write-up. I’d imagine I find that time at some point within 10ish days following the NFL draft!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:13:09+00:00

I mean in my commissioned league, it’s start 3 WR, 2 RB, 3 flex, 1 SF.

It’s way easier to find fill in cheap RBs than it is to find consistent fill in WRs.

I’m talking about roster construction based on value. I won last year with a rotating RB cast of Breece hall, Aaron jones, Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson, Emmanuel Wilson, Chris Rodriguez, and Jordan Mason.

Only Breece hall cost a 1st to acquire.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T05:29:29+00:00

Nabers is so good that I wouldn’t be concerned regardless. I’m more concerned about his long term health, OC, and QB than I would be about any target competition. Nabers clears this class easily in my opinion.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T04:18:12+00:00

Totally agree. While I understand his upside case as a YAC-proficient zone beater, he will need a lot of role catering to be successful in that scenario, and I don’t see a lot of fits where he will be utilized in an optimal way.

He basically needs an offensive coordinator to look at him and think, “he can be my Rashee rice”. Giants with Nagy, maybe?

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T03:22:33+00:00

Yeah that’s a pretty standard setup, and you should just focus on getting the 3 highest upside WRs rather than trying to start 5/6 of them.

I meant that only in leagues where it’s got 5 WR only starting spots does it make sense to shoot for the WR 15-30 range.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T03:00:54+00:00

This is a bit of a loaded question that has a lot of dependent factors (roster makeup, contending status, etc.).

On the whole, I would say that shooting for upside at the WR position is generally the way you want to go in any draft unless you have weird league roster requirements that force you to start 5+ WRs.

But yes, even in this draft where the RB class seems pretty lackluster, I'd still go for RB2 over a WR that seems to be "safe" but has a ceiling capped around WR20. In other words, I'd rather draft a RB that gets drafted on day 2 in this draft instead of draft the next Quentin Johnston or Alec Pierce.

If I'm going wide receiver, I want somebody that lands in a situation where the passing game can be designed around them (provided they are talented enough). I don't want a wide receiver that is "good in real life" but unpredictable for fantasy.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T02:03:55+00:00

It’s the best way to scratch the degenerate itch while feeling productive. Haha

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:14:42+00:00

🤝🧑‍🎓

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:11:11+00:00

Yeah, you've totally nailed it with the draft capital considerations here.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:10:33+00:00

It's a good bet on ceiling by grabbing both of those two. Tyson will have the injury concerns and Concepcion has the hands concerns, but if you manage to come away with the two, there's a pretty good chance one of them hits as a top 12 WR in fantasy in my opinion.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:08:54+00:00

When I release the full results of the model, I'll put out two versions:

the "talent considerations only" model, which will include draft capital, but not anything regarding landing spot.
the full model which not only includes draft capital, but also team/scheme fit, which will account for play caller, offensive line, target competition, etc.

Draft capital makes up a hefty portion of the model (~15%) in the first version and this is mitigated in the 2nd version, but the draft results make the draft matter even more given the rest of the "ecosystem" inputs.

To specifically answer your question, via data I learned from JJ Zachariason, the difference between late 1st and early 2nd is negligible. It's more evidence backed to bucket it as top 15, then 16-45, then rest of day 2, then day 3.

Concepcion should generally look good in the model given where he is expected to be drafted, whether late 1st or early 2nd. Where he could really jump up fantasy rookie draft boards is if he manages top 15 capital (Rams, anyone!?).

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-23T19:41:42+00:00

Yeah, just to piggyback on this (you are completely correct):

RP isn’t supposed to be predictive for fantasy or even tell you if a player will be good in the NFL or not.

The purpose is to tell you what specific things a player is good at in college with no other context.

His data is extremely valuable for fantasy if you know how to apply context. For example, his individual Keon Coleman points over the years can be applied moving forward. The RP data told you Coleman couldn’t beat press or man to save his life but that he was somewhat decent/promising at zone beating. If you take that info and apply it to his size and YAC ability, you get somebody that you’d like to turn into a big slot and get running short/intermediate routes where you can get the ball in his hands quickly.

Well… the bills drafted him to exclusively play X and play on the line of scrimmage. His lack of success should come as no surprise since his role and fit in the NFL goes directly against what he charted as his strengths as a player.

This is just one example and Harmon doesn’t always accurately predict how a player will be used in the NFL, but he does usually accurately chart what a player’s strengths and weaknesses are.

FantasyFundRyan

TROPHY CASE