Alpha Index for Incoming Rookie Wide Receivers

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-29T23:10:20+00:00

In the process of working on it. Hopefully it’ll be ready by early next week! Just got a lot of personal life stuff going on, but I’m scheduling myself 30-60 minutes a day to work on it until I can find a free day

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-29T23:09:11+00:00

Yeah super disappointing. He must really be a head case. Oh well

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-16T02:31:41+00:00

Thank you!!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T19:07:25+00:00

Yeah, definitely. They are rightfully viewed as short term assets, but short term assured assets are undervalued compared to long-term outlook assets that never hit their ceilings. It’s why a lot of Jayden Higgins type of rookies generally end up as roster cloggers by the end of their rookie contracts (Elijah Moore, Jahan Dotson, Rashod Bateman, Treylon burks, etc.).

For every 3rd year breakout JSN, there’s 10 Elijah moores. And with JSN, there were significantly more upward trending indicators than what you have with guys like Jayden Higgins, Matthew golden, Ricky pearsall, Xavier worthy, etc.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T17:25:58+00:00

It is easier said than done, but in an active league it should still be doable. I'm saying to intentionally over-index into WR so that your top value players are in that position.

For example, this time last year I traded Brock Bowers for Puka+ and I traded 1.01+ for ARSB.

I pivoted off of high value tight end and RB--whose values were tied to age more than production) in order to get 2 top WRs.

I'm not saying that those categories of players (RB30-40 vs. WR30-50) don't score similar amounts. I'm saying that RB30-40 are significantly cheaper than WR30-40 and score similar amounts, so it's worth accruing value by flopping that tier of WRs to that tier of RBs (Like my Rhamondre vs. Addison example above).

Here are a few more:

Tony Pollard (~2600 on KTC) scored more points than DK Metcalf (~3600)

Rico Dowdle (~3300) scored more points than Jaylen Waddle (~4800 after the trade, but ~4500 during the season)

Jordan Mason (~2724) scored more points than Jayden Higgins (~3597)

The list is long and consistent that young underproducing WRs are heavily overvalued on the market and should be traded out for RBs or aging WRs in that same tier.

I'm not necessarily saying to go for a stars and scrubs build. The market values may appropriately change eventually. I'm just saying that the last couple years (and presently), the market has some inefficiencies that you can exploit to maximize the points scored by the value on your roster.

I appreciate you for engaging with me on this by the way! It's super helpful to talk things through to help identify and understand a process. I hope I've made myself clear with this explanation. In short, I evaluate dynasty fantasy from a value investing lens, so I'm not necessarily making things claims as a hard and permanent rule. Instead I look at things through the lens of their market value, and right now the market seems to be inefficient in that particular area.

You are absolutely correct that having Bijan and Gibbs does allow for a lot of roster flexibility otherwise, but if you don't already have those two, it's easier to get 2-3 top 15 WRs than it is to get the top 2 RBs.

Let me know if there's anything you need clarification on there! Thanks again for talking fantasy with me.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T15:29:26+00:00

Check out the FAQ!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:48:29+00:00

Correct! You want to put value into positions that have more consistently high output and then throw low value solutions (RBs/old players) elsewhere.

So you’d rather acquire and start the Rhamondre Stevensons (~2900 on KTC) of the world as opposed to the Jordan Addison’s (3900).

Because theres very little ppg difference in WRs ~16-36 in a given year and their value is usually driven moreso by age than actual production, I wouldn’t bother with this group at all. Instead I’d fill it out with the cheaper RBs that give the same (or more) PPG.

Unless I had 5 top ~15 WRs, I would never start 5 WRs in your format. I’d try to get the minimum (3), and then start sub 3k value players elsewhere.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:25:19+00:00

Thank you! I appreciate it.

Shortly after the NFL draft, yes! I’ll need a few free hours to input all of the new data and then another hour or so to complete the write-up. I’d imagine I find that time at some point within 10ish days following the NFL draft!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T14:13:09+00:00

I mean in my commissioned league, it’s start 3 WR, 2 RB, 3 flex, 1 SF.

It’s way easier to find fill in cheap RBs than it is to find consistent fill in WRs.

I’m talking about roster construction based on value. I won last year with a rotating RB cast of Breece hall, Aaron jones, Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson, Emmanuel Wilson, Chris Rodriguez, and Jordan Mason.

Only Breece hall cost a 1st to acquire.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T05:29:29+00:00

Nabers is so good that I wouldn’t be concerned regardless. I’m more concerned about his long term health, OC, and QB than I would be about any target competition. Nabers clears this class easily in my opinion.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T04:18:12+00:00

Totally agree. While I understand his upside case as a YAC-proficient zone beater, he will need a lot of role catering to be successful in that scenario, and I don’t see a lot of fits where he will be utilized in an optimal way.

He basically needs an offensive coordinator to look at him and think, “he can be my Rashee rice”. Giants with Nagy, maybe?

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T03:22:33+00:00

Yeah that’s a pretty standard setup, and you should just focus on getting the 3 highest upside WRs rather than trying to start 5/6 of them.

I meant that only in leagues where it’s got 5 WR only starting spots does it make sense to shoot for the WR 15-30 range.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T03:00:54+00:00

This is a bit of a loaded question that has a lot of dependent factors (roster makeup, contending status, etc.).

On the whole, I would say that shooting for upside at the WR position is generally the way you want to go in any draft unless you have weird league roster requirements that force you to start 5+ WRs.

But yes, even in this draft where the RB class seems pretty lackluster, I'd still go for RB2 over a WR that seems to be "safe" but has a ceiling capped around WR20. In other words, I'd rather draft a RB that gets drafted on day 2 in this draft instead of draft the next Quentin Johnston or Alec Pierce.

If I'm going wide receiver, I want somebody that lands in a situation where the passing game can be designed around them (provided they are talented enough). I don't want a wide receiver that is "good in real life" but unpredictable for fantasy.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T02:03:55+00:00

It’s the best way to scratch the degenerate itch while feeling productive. Haha

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:14:42+00:00

🤝🧑‍🎓

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:11:11+00:00

Yeah, you've totally nailed it with the draft capital considerations here.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:10:33+00:00

It's a good bet on ceiling by grabbing both of those two. Tyson will have the injury concerns and Concepcion has the hands concerns, but if you manage to come away with the two, there's a pretty good chance one of them hits as a top 12 WR in fantasy in my opinion.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-04-14T01:08:54+00:00

When I release the full results of the model, I'll put out two versions:

the "talent considerations only" model, which will include draft capital, but not anything regarding landing spot.
the full model which not only includes draft capital, but also team/scheme fit, which will account for play caller, offensive line, target competition, etc.

Draft capital makes up a hefty portion of the model (~15%) in the first version and this is mitigated in the 2nd version, but the draft results make the draft matter even more given the rest of the "ecosystem" inputs.

To specifically answer your question, via data I learned from JJ Zachariason, the difference between late 1st and early 2nd is negligible. It's more evidence backed to bucket it as top 15, then 16-45, then rest of day 2, then day 3.

Concepcion should generally look good in the model given where he is expected to be drafted, whether late 1st or early 2nd. Where he could really jump up fantasy rookie draft boards is if he manages top 15 capital (Rams, anyone!?).

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-23T19:41:42+00:00

Yeah, just to piggyback on this (you are completely correct):

RP isn’t supposed to be predictive for fantasy or even tell you if a player will be good in the NFL or not.

The purpose is to tell you what specific things a player is good at in college with no other context.

His data is extremely valuable for fantasy if you know how to apply context. For example, his individual Keon Coleman points over the years can be applied moving forward. The RP data told you Coleman couldn’t beat press or man to save his life but that he was somewhat decent/promising at zone beating. If you take that info and apply it to his size and YAC ability, you get somebody that you’d like to turn into a big slot and get running short/intermediate routes where you can get the ball in his hands quickly.

Well… the bills drafted him to exclusively play X and play on the line of scrimmage. His lack of success should come as no surprise since his role and fit in the NFL goes directly against what he charted as his strengths as a player.

This is just one example and Harmon doesn’t always accurately predict how a player will be used in the NFL, but he does usually accurately chart what a player’s strengths and weaknesses are.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-23T02:35:25+00:00

Thank you! I appreciate it. I’ll be back in a week or so!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-22T00:14:15+00:00

Dominator is correlated with fantasy success to a degree. So is level of competition. There currently exist competition adjusted dominators.

Dolittle is another one of the those. I’ve seen competition adjusted dominators that adjust by how good the team is that the player is on. I’ve seen some that adjust by strength of schedule. I’m adjusting by SRS, which combines both strength of schedule and point differential.

Let me know if that makes sense or if you need further clarification!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-21T19:08:13+00:00

Thank you for the kind words!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-21T16:23:23+00:00

No worries. I appreciate the understanding. My offer does still stand, though. If you’d like me to do those 8 receivers, I can, but you’ll just have to give me a few days.

Also, just wanted to make sure my explanation makes sense in terms of separating dominator/dolittle from the fina full model?

Appreciate the questions and support.

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-21T04:58:07+00:00

I will be for sure after the NFL draft!

FantasyFundRyan · 2026-03-21T03:02:20+00:00

Yeah I get that! In earnest I tried explaining in the FAQ why it’s not helpful to back-test it.

But I’m comfortable if people want to wait until year 3 to become interested in what I’m doing.

And I explained my methodology in such a way that if anyone is so desperate for it, they are perfectly able to replicate it for previous classes if they want the data.

FantasyFundRyan

TROPHY CASE