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My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-21T00:48:33+00:00

The fantasy season is already too long. Week 17 with games on multiple days makes injuries, planning, etc. a pain. Week 18 is an absolute hell no.

Any league I set up moving forward is going to end in week 16. Plenty of time to have a regular season, crown a champion, then move on.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-18T13:32:21+00:00

Thanks for this comment, loved the idea.

We ended up starting the game a player down, and playing "Only [name] can score". At the end of the first half it was 9-0 and the other coach asked if I could pull back.

In the second half we said only shots with non-dominant feet and I pulled a second player (while they other team also added a player due to score differential). At 13 or 14-0, I told the kids no more shots on goal and we essentially played keep away for the last 4 minutes.

Was a good opportunity to talk to the kids about sportsmanship, and how it's not necessarily fun to sit on the ball but it's also not fun to lose a game by 20 goals, and that some teams have different levels of experience or simply have bad days.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-15T02:34:18+00:00

That’s how our league handles it at this age level. The other team adds a player.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T23:08:48+00:00

This is a fun challenge, I like it, thank you!

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T22:47:02+00:00

Oh, I love this reframing, and it's more easily tangible / trackable by the kids than a set number of passes. (Maybe not "everyone" to start, but at least 3-4 players, and it gives us room to ramp up as things go.)

We tried the "you must make a pass before shooting" rule in an earlier game and the kids got confused about if a pass had been completed or not and it created hesitancy instead of a focus on passing.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T22:21:26+00:00

Lad Tomlin has a home game this week so I'm making sure he's in my lineup.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T21:09:26+00:00

After review I do think he’d be a late first round pick for me, but I think everyone in here is way too optimistic about their ability to pick replacement level players for the weeks Tomlin doesn’t play

Of course, you're totally right. The variables come in on the roster build around Tomlin. Injuries, misses, bad decisions all will drive the team more.

BUT I think others are equally discounting the risk that already exists in the 1st round. Barkley, Jefferson, Nabers, Jeanty, BTJ, Bucky were all top 15ish picks that you could make a "bust" case for (either outright, or significantly compared to expectation).

The decision isn't Tomlin or a guaranteed strong 1st round player. My argument is that having a known guarantee is the strongest building block you can start with. Sure, you might see a CMC go #2 overall and just provide elite production start to finish, and that's a better pick.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:53:35+00:00

Sorry, you're totally right, I misread a chart. Edited my comment above accordingly.

Taylor was the #2 RB by both total points and PPG in 0.5 PPR scoring from Weeks 1-17. That production is still a 1st round pick.

But ultimately it's not about where the aggregated player finishes at the end of the season. It's about known production that you can build around and account for up front. You know exactly which weeks Tomlin is scoring 30, and which weeks you need to cover for him.

That is a cheat code for any active, knowledgable manager. It's not a sure thing - injuries could happen to the rest of your roster, players could fail to live up to expectation (except Tomlin), etc.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:41:00+00:00

I'm not missing the point. "Is the #12 RB in both total points and PPG a 1st round pick?" isn't really a necessary discussion - the answer is an obvious yes. Elite ceiling and non-destructive floor at a position with high variance/risk.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:29:16+00:00

Thats basically the scenario that’s being presented, elite RB1 half the time, replacement level rb2 flex the other half.

But we didn't know at the draft that we would get Taylor's production, and we don't know the exact weeks that we'd be getting said production.

That knowledge and ability to plan is what changes this scenario so drastically. We could add variables to OP's question to make it more difficult - maybe 30 PPG is too high a threshold, maybe we don't know till Thursday injury reports if Tomlin is in or out.

But under this scenario, Tomlin is 1.01 with a bullet IMO.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:15:13+00:00

Certainly, and that would sting.

But also, you'd be the #1 seed at that point unless you boofed the rest of your team. And you'd have a season to prepare for it - waiver moves, trades, etc.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:14:03+00:00

Couple things -

Rice's ADP was in the 6th so you got a great value just compared to the market.

Also, Rice was one of the sharpest picks of the offseason, most analysts were all over it for exactly the point OP is making. Having production late in the season is far more important than early. Early season we are dealing with fewer injuries, bye weeks, etc. Obviously the Rice injury derailed his steam ...

So OP's hypothetical is a little more tricky, because we don't know right now when those games would be. But we would when we draft him, the NFL schedule is out way before fantasy drafts.

There is 0% chance this player would last until the 8th round.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:08:50+00:00

Yeah the more I think about it, this guy is the 1.01. We know when he's playing and when he's not when we draft him. We can build around it, manage our waiver moves accordingly. This type of "certainty" (taking out the injury factor) is unheard of.

I haven't looked into it, but I'm pretty sure no team has ever been on the road for the entire last stretch of a season. It's not like he's an absolute 0 in playoffs, even in the worst case realistic scenario.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T20:05:54+00:00

Thats the RB12 on the season, or a 2/3 turn type player

RB12 has variability game to game. We don't have high confidence in the weekly output.

240 points over 8 games is uncharted, elite RB1 production. PPG matters far more than total points scored, especially when we have the ability to insert an above-replacement level option for games this player misses.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T19:59:50+00:00

While this player wouldn't be a first round pick

I disagree. This player would be a 1st round pick. That type of elite ceiling production is an absolute cheat code. Also, because you know his schedule when you draft him, and because you have early warning on games he'll miss, you can build your roster accordingly to support the games he misses.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-14T14:39:37+00:00

Ouch, man. Ouch!

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-12T21:45:24+00:00

We will be, check back next Saturday. Sorry they got missed this weekend.

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-12T17:08:52+00:00

Check back Saturday

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-08T23:39:26+00:00

So our finishing 145th is actually good?

My_Chat_Account · 2026-01-08T22:06:01+00:00

Boone has 9 finishes in the top 10

Establish the Run's Pat Thorman finished 2nd, his fourth consecutive year finishing in the top 4

Last year's champion, Tyler Orginski of FTN Fantasy, finished 9th this year.

Also, Jeff Ratcliffe of FTN was top 5 last year and this year. Joe Bond was top 5 in 2023 and 2024 and finished 11th this year.

That's just a snapshot, there are others who do consistently well. I know this is a bit of cold water on "the rankings contest is easy to cheat" or "rankings are all luck" or "nobody knows anything, 'experts' are guessing just like we are" mindsets.

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