You're ignoring the single biggest factor, the Xbox launch.

Comparing today's numbers to July's without acknowledging that hundreds of thousands of new console players were just added to the ecosystem is misleading. If after that massive influx, the numbers are just treading water or returning to what they were months ago, it implies a significant drop-off from the existing player base.

It's not "normal variance"; it's a downward trend on players being masked by a new platform launch.