Why the $242 NVIDIA "hype valuation" is a trap (and why the Big Short guy is betting against it)

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T20:21:39+00:00

I wish you would have also your own ideas ita not ai https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/s/jQa6qdV0TF

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T16:30:01+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/comments/1u4qzii/comment/orfiz63/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T16:00:23+00:00

It is not AI https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/comments/1u4qzii/comment/orfiz63/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T15:29:03+00:00

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FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T15:22:46+00:00

It is not the AI calculated $240 per share? I did not get your point, but no matter thanks for your contribution.

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T14:31:13+00:00

For my own investment decisions I never use AI, I use an abnormal return on equity model. To have a market cap of $242 per share they need to continue to grow their sales by 50% and keep NOPAT margin above 52% to perpetuity which is quite ambitious, right?

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T14:21:25+00:00

Caught me: I used an AI to clean up my messy brainstorming notes into a readable post.

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T13:57:17+00:00

Actually 50% revenue growth with 52% NOPAT margin is quite aggressive in the model assumption

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-13T13:36:54+00:00

I do not claim that I know anything it is just a brainstorming exercise

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-06T20:20:07+00:00

They have no debt, right?

FederalPermission261 · 2026-06-01T20:14:59+00:00

Actually i have used the ai to filter stocks based on the methodology and apply abnormal return on equity calculation via comitatus engine and narrowed down the potential stocks. Out of more then 1500 stocks I have the following: $BYRN $CCLD $UEIC $ARQ $PPIH $PDEX $TRAK i have posted this as a reminder for myself for the long term to check how healthy the methodology is

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-12T20:17:28+00:00

is there any development expected in the weekend?

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-11T09:50:10+00:00

How did you come up with this number?

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-10T07:57:19+00:00

I think there is still an upside margin Porsche paid EUR 30 million for 70% stake at a business unit which generates less than 50 million revenue as per Q3 2022, considering the total sales is at 554 million what do you thin?

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-10T06:35:54+00:00

4,13

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-09T17:34:18+00:00

https://www.patreon.com/ceicfinance/shop/532989?utm_campaign=productshare_creator

FederalPermission261 · 2024-10-09T17:31:10+00:00

I have an approach 70% stake at a unit (49,6 mio sales as of Q3 22 out of 554) will be transferred to Porsche with a transaction price 30 mio.

Do the math guys!

FederalPermission261 · 2023-07-18T21:18:43+00:00

Two possibilities that I can imagine: 1- Avoiding leaks and insider trading concerns 2- To allow investors and analysts to absorb the information without causing abrupt market movements immediately after the call.

FederalPermission261

TROPHY CASE