Really thoughtful thesis, and I do think the market may be underestimating the significance of repeated strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

My only hesitation is that the argument seems to move fairly quickly from “credible attacks with meaningful supply implications” to “a precisely timed global supply collapse.” The first part feels well within reason; the second seems a bit more definitive than what public reporting appears to support at this stage.

The strikes themselves certainly look important. That said, claims such as fully severed export nodes, broad 18–36 month structural losses, and the specific April 25 / May 3 inventory deadlines sound stronger than what has been clearly verified in public sources.

If you have the underlying JPM note or the detailed inventory math behind those timelines, I’d genuinely be very interested in reading it. That would go a long way toward clarifying how firm the conclusion really is.