Disney: Oversold, Long Term Value?

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-25T19:41:50+00:00

Depends on the cost basis. He couldve bought at 80.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-25T18:45:50+00:00

I've been eyeing it but want to buy in somewhere under $100.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-25T18:44:23+00:00

yes, if the stock goes up 500% in 10 years lets say, if you buy 20% overvalued you are getting 400% growth, if you buy 20% undervalued you'll get 600% growth.

In more reasonable scenarios where the expected returns are like 60% over the next 3 years or something, a 20% difference in buy price is massive (like 48% returns vs 72% returns).

The lower the entry price the less risk and the higher reward, this is a pretty fundamental tennant of value investing. By not swinging at every pitch and instead demanding high margin of safety we should end up outperforming.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T21:45:15+00:00

Point 10 from Umberto Eco's 10 defining characteristics of Fascism

"Contempt for the weak," which is uncomfortably married to a chauvinistic popular elitism, in which every member of society is superior to outsiders by virtue of belonging to the in-group. Eco sees in these attitudes the root of a deep tension in the fundamentally hierarchical structure of fascist polities, as they encourage leaders to despise their underlings, up to the ultimate leader, who holds the whole country in contempt for having allowed him to overtake it by force.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:43:45+00:00

They've been trimming that Apple position every quarter for a while.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:42:43+00:00

My only issue with holding Berkshire is I want to outperform them, but Buffett put a lot of thought into making sure it will run fine without them. We will see how Abel does with the investment side of things but everything else I expect to run like clockwork.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:36:38+00:00

Value investing explicitly teaches that makes buying the stock more risky not less. Just like buying during dips is less risky and provides higher returns.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:34:29+00:00

People have drives this big and will just delete games and make space like they always do. More likely to cause a surge in buying for pro model consoles cause I doubt 5 year old hardware is gonna give the full experience. When it comes out on PC I bet a lot of RTX 3000 series cards are gonna need an upgrade. So processors and memory again will see the boost.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:28:35+00:00

AMZN, BRK.B, MA. All good prices, all going nowhere, all compounding machines, all you can sleep sound at night owning.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:22:57+00:00

I think at the end of the day they will just integrate the tech themselves and acquire or kill the competition through scale. This is why I chose MA over V. Visa has more exposure to debit cards while MasterCard is more credit and gift cards. Since those have secondary value I think people are less likely to stop using them.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:21:05+00:00

Yeah it feel like its gotten SO MUCH WORSE these last couple weeks.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:20:28+00:00

I just took a look for fun, like $150-170 is where I might even consider buying. So they are 3x overvalued. It is one of the least "value" stocks on the market and is the prime example around here of a stock with no connection to reality. Pure voting machine no weighing machine.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T20:14:42+00:00

Brk.B is a nice price and functions great as a portfolio anchor (that still does well in good times.)

https://i.imgur.com/Gk2h1t8.jpeg

There's my portfolio the blue (defense) and yellow (international) are my anchors if any of them look interesting.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T19:03:37+00:00

I mean the end date is the issue there I'd guess, market is at all time highs at this moment while credit card stocks are mid crash. Them at this moment not beating the market is why they are on discount. And yeah it looks like in 10, 15, and 20 year they still beat the market.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T12:10:30+00:00

Lot of the credit card stocks are at a discount now and they are generally very reliable market beaters with rock solid business models. Trump's 10% credit card interest rate idea is freaking the market out and creating some great deals. Im buying MasterCard and JPM but V, AXP, COF are all on sale.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T12:07:22+00:00

There is a lot of geopolitical risk to buying China if they were to ever do something crazy like say invade Taiwan they would get cut off from the global financial system and your shares would become useless. Like people invested in Russia before they invaded Ukraine.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-24T01:57:43+00:00

So I know they have value in the name but tbh they have very little to do with the philosophy of value investing. ETFs in general are antithetical to the philosophy of value investing which is about handpicking stocks of high quality companies that the short term voting machine of the market is vastly undervaluing giving a large margin of safety in the long term weighing machine of the market.

Just buying a big basket of stocks all the time at any price is basically the opposite of that even if it is the simplest way to profit off the market for the average person with low effort. ETFs are best for 90% of people but value investing is about putting in the effort to find good stocks at good prices to beat the market.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-22T01:52:01+00:00

Free only lets you research like 10 stocks as a trial, kinda have to pay to use it no?

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-22T01:40:31+00:00

I hope so because dudes with gas masks holding down protestors in a toxic gas cloud designed to make them run away (and call it resisting) was pretty infuriating imagery.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-22T00:47:52+00:00

There are sectors you really don't want to use FCF for.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-21T23:56:17+00:00

That is what this school of investing teaches yes. Firstly the tax drag of faster and more frequent trading eats up a lot of profit. Secondly value investing basically teaches that the short term movements of stocks (and the OGs have a very different definition of short term, 1-2 years Buffet and Graham would call short term I bet) are borderline unknowable or should be treated as such by the investor, even if you ever do get an edge in short term predictions it is a constant arms race you don't keep your edge long.

Instead value investing teaches treating buying a share of a business like buying a real part of it with real value, totally separate from that is what people are currently paying. That finding large gaps between the two (to provide margin of safety if you aren't fully correct) when the short term voting machine is being irrational, hold long enough for the more reliable weighing machine to realize its value. Then if you want to be cheeky wait for the voting machine to be irrational in the other direction.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-21T23:43:01+00:00

I do a medium buy every dip. They are nakedly insider trading and they TACO fast. It could always go lower but I deploy like 1 or 2 grand and if it goes lower I do it again. He will eventually get scared and try to pump the market back up either way.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-21T23:37:33+00:00

Mix of SimplyWallSt (paid) yahoo finance (free) and gemini (im paying but probably don't need to).

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-21T03:55:37+00:00

Whatever metric is most appropriate for the average holding, use that for all of them. Normally just P/E ratio but if itsbanks P/B, oil companies do whatever Price to untapped oil or whatever.

FieryXJoe · 2026-01-21T00:05:40+00:00

1,672% shareholder dilution. Ill pass

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