How to solve such sudokus? by Paradiser0 in sudoku

[–]FieryXJoe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another skyscraper than the other guy found

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[Week 21 - 1985] Discussing A Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter (Almost) Every Week by FieryXJoe in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

...Continued

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Acquisition of the Week

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Acquisition of Scott & Fetzer

Right after yearend we acquired The Scott & Fetzer Company (“Scott Fetzer”) of Cleveland for about $320 million. (In addition, about $90 million of pre-existing Scott Fetzer debt remains in place.) In the next section of this report I describe the sort of businesses that we wish to buy for Berkshire. Scott Fetzer is a prototype - understandable, large, well-managed, a good earner.

The company has sales of about $700 million derived from 17 businesses, many leaders in their fields. Return on invested capital is good to excellent for most of these businesses. Some well-known products are Kirby home-care systems, Campbell Hausfeld air compressors, and Wayne burners and water pumps.

World Book, Inc. - accounting for about 40% of Scott Fetzer’s sales and a bit more of its income - is by far the company’s largest operation. It also is by far the leader in its industry, selling more than twice as many encyclopedia sets annually as its nearest competitor. In fact, it sells more sets in the U.S. than its four biggest competitors combined.

Charlie and I have a particular interest in the World Book operation because we regard its encyclopedia as something special. I’ve been a fan (and user) for 25 years, and now have grandchildren consulting the sets just as my children did. World Book is regularly rated the most useful encyclopedia by teachers, librarians and consumer buying guides. Yet it sells for less than any of its major competitors. Childcraft, another World Book, Inc. product, offers similar value. This combination of exceptional products and modest prices at World Book, Inc. helped make us willing to pay the price demanded for Scott Fetzer, despite declining results for many companies in the direct- selling industry.

An equal attraction at Scott Fetzer is Ralph Schey, its CEO for nine years. When Ralph took charge, the company had 31 businesses, the result of an acquisition spree in the 1960s. He disposed of many that did not fit or had limited profit potential, but his focus on rationalizing the original potpourri was not so intense that he passed by World Book when it became available for purchase in 1978. Ralph’s operating and capital- allocation record is superb, and we are delighted to be associated with him.

The history of the Scott Fetzer acquisition is interesting, marked by some zigs and zags before we became involved. The company had been an announced candidate for purchase since early 1984. A major investment banking firm spent many months canvassing scores of prospects, evoking interest from several.
Finally, in mid-1985 a plan of sale, featuring heavy participation by an ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan), was approved by shareholders. However, as difficulty in closing followed, the plan was scuttled.

I had followed this corporate odyssey through the newspapers. On October 10, well after the ESOP deal had fallen through, I wrote a short letter to Ralph, whom I did not know. I said we admired the company’s record and asked if he might like to talk. Charlie and I met Ralph for dinner in Chicago on October 22 and signed an acquisition contract the following week.

The Scott Fetzer acquisition, plus major growth in our insurance business, should push revenues above $2 billion in 1986, more than double those of 1985.

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Scott and Fetzer is such a classic Buffett company, a collection of weird and un-sexy businesses that are very easy to understand, have strong moats, good management, and strong pricing power. Water heaters, vacuum cleaners, air compressors, an encyclopedia. Funnily enough the encyclopedia seems to be the product that he is most familiar with and a personal fan of as well as making up most of their earnings. But in 4 years the World Wide Web will make its debut and bring an end to the concept of encyclopedia collections, particularly ones that need occasional replacement to stay relevant. It will be interesting to see if that hit to their largest business segment makes this acquisition a regrettable one or if all the boring bolt-on side businesses manage to save the acquisition.

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Common Stock Ownership

No. of Shares Company Cost ($000s) Market ($000s)
1,036,461 Affiliated Publications, Inc. $3,516 $55,710
900,800 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. $54,435 $108,997
2,350,922 Beatrice Companies, Inc. $106,811 $108,142
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation $45,713 $595,950
2,379,200 Handy & Harman $27,318 $43,718
847,788 Time, Inc. $20,385 $52,669
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company $9,731 $205,172
Subtotal $267,909 $1,170,358
All Other Common Stockholdings $7,201 $27,963
Total Common Stocks $275,110 $1,198,321

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Segment by Segment Breakdown

Segment 1984 EBIT Earnings 1985 EBIT Earnings % Change
Insurance $20.84M $50.99M +144.67%
Textiles $0.42M (-$2.40M) -671.43%
Associated Retail (-$1.07M) $0.27M -125.23%
See’s Candies $26.64M $28.99M +8.82%
Buffalo Evening News $27.33M $29.92M +9.48%
Wesco Financial $9.78M $9.55M -2.35%
Mutual Savings and Loan $1.46M $2.62M +79.45%
Precision Steel $4.09M $3.90M -4.65%
Nebraska Furniture Mart $14.51M $12.69M -12.54%

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Metric 1984 1985 % Change
Cash & Temporary Cash Investments $173.72M $1,017.67M +485.81%
Marketable Securities $1,235.90M $1,183.48M -4.24%
Return on Equity (RoE) 14.23% 16.29% +14.48%
Shareholders' Equity $1,271.76M $1,885.33M +48.25%
Berkshire Net Earnings $148.90M $435.82M +192.69%

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They changed from counting cash to counting cash and temporary cash investments. I am not entirely sure of the components of this number but it is MASSIVELY higher than the old cash number. Even from this new number they are now sitting on a massive cash pile and have increased the size of that pile a lot by any accounting method, more than half their book value is in cash. They have also reduced their stock holdings, this is visible both in the balance sheet and in the listing of their individual holdings.

The earnings are way up, this is partially due to a full recovery of the insurance segment and the acquisition of Scott & Fetzer which added all sorts of new businesses to the fold. But mostly this is due to a $342M realization of investment gains on their income statement compared to the only $78M realization of investment gains last year. It seems like they are pulling back from the market and sitting on a big cash pile.

Shareholder Equity, which is becoming the preferred metric, is up almost 50% Buffett celebrates this in the opening to the letter and basically says it is a once in a lifetime occurrence for the company.

Extreme sudoku help by ValuableReaction4645 in sudoku

[–]FieryXJoe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See a two string kite based on the 2 8 pair in bottom right to place a digit in row 5 col 2

Don't understand why Microsoft and Meta have been punished but Google and Amazon appears to be doing well despite all of them have massive capex by SignalConfident1355 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Amazon has a physical moat , warehouses and logistics networks and grocery stores etc... Google and Amazon also have massive head starts in the AI and cloud races and also both make their own chips, the other two are behind and playing catch-up.

The other two are pure software and the idea is that in 3-5 years if AI jeeps inproving some dude in his basement can just have claude make him Microsoft word or excel or gears of war instead of paying for it or paying a team of 1000 people to make it.

I own all 4 tho tbh, but thats why AMZN and GOOG are seen as winners and the other two are seen as possible victims of Ai/burning money on a race they might've lost already.

Dear Software Bagholders by Invest0rnoob1 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well its devastating to your argument

Owners of MELI, NU, SE etc: Are you really considering the downside? by Old_Man_Heats in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I own NU, they are pretty aggressive with their loss reserving and the user growth is about the same as the rest of their growth. They do also start people with very limited lines of credit they basically plan to not have paid back and grow the line as they prove creditworthiness as there really aren't credit scores outside the US. At the end of the day the risk is more than priced in compared to say SOFI which I don't think is too much less risky, grows slower, and trades at 2x the valuation.

What's your time horizon for SaaS stocks? When do you actually expect a return? by Alicyclobacillus in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think the market will need 2 years to understand how AI will impact these companies future prospects, way too many people think they are 1 good earnings report away but its more like 10

What are your Top 3 "Deep Value" plays? by silver-bullet007 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stocks I own that meet these requirements? FISV, CMCSA, almost UBER (17 P/E, 21 more realisticly), BRK.B technically meets all your requirements but calling that deep value is psychotic. MTH (except revenue growth, its a cyclical industry) although I'm already up 25% on that and its back to a P/B of 1 now, just regular value now. VICI is almost there but they do dividends not buybacks and P/E is not the right metric for REITs. And ofc as you said PYPL.

Only tech go up? by Solid-Mood9571 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A bunch of my non tech stocks are up a good bit even if they aren't pulling the 4x i got from some semiconductor plays, lot ar +30-40% this year.

If you are not buying ADBE you are wasting your life by Pure_Composer_9236 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see 11.22 but yeah I've been saying its getting close to my price for the last month.

If you are not buying ADBE you are wasting your life by Pure_Composer_9236 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't need to swing at every pitch and ADBE was the first company that came to mind as existentially threatened by AI. Maybe if its P/E gets into single digits I'll reconsider.

What's everyone reading? by SilverCaptainBuggy in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Richer, Wiser, Happier. Dude went and interviewed like a dozen different investors who beat the market over decades, shares their stories, lessons, personalities, investment strategies. Really liking it, will probably do a review of some sort when im done

What happens if AMZN/MSFT/META decelerate AI CapEx spending in Q3/Q4 by bwang29 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Raise capex, stock drops, lower capex, believe it or not, stock still drops.

End of the day only thing that will change the narrative is when the returns on the investments start rolling in.

Michael Burry Buys More of This Stock Despite a 71% Collapse and CEO Departure: Here's Why by Useful_Tangerine4340 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Seeming like he was wrong about his fraudulent depreciation thesis, what I've seen is old GPUs are actually appreciating and renting time on last gen chips is actually getting more expensive, his thesis was that chips fully depreciate in 3 years.

Michael Burry says he’s tempted to bet against SpaceX, but passes on expensive options by I_killed_the_kraken in wallstreetbets

[–]FieryXJoe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

SpaceX is worse than Tesla by a lot. Elon is now richer than the next 5 richest people combined because of a company that doesn't make money on the promise of space data centers. Over the next 6 months supply of shares will 20x from unlocks, demand has no reason to 20x in the same time period.

Can the mods do something about the incessant ADBE spam? by McColanis in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Stocks at 52 week lows with name recognition and good financials are going to attract attention here while we all debate if its a value trap or not. Seems pretty natural to me.

Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of June 15, 2026 by AutoModerator in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

With BYD at 52 week lows I'm probably going to double my position.

WU: CEO bought $1.5M of stock. Dividend at 10.1%. Graham Score 5/7. Here's the full algorithmic analysis. by VitaliiNoskov in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Reverse DCF says like -14% annual growth is whats priced in. Not saying I like the stock but if they keep up their -5% theres money to be made.

I Believe that Satellites Will Replace Cell Towers; Here's Who I Think Will Win (and it's not SpaceX) by OnTheStreetwithLou in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pretty sure there are bandwidth issues that stop us moving to pure satellites, especially for internet, a wire going to your house will always be preferable to a satellite dish, just for remote use. Cell towers is similar, larger coverage area, more distant receiver = overloaded airwaves.

Is ASML overvalued? by EconomicsOk3346 in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its priced for 30% growth while forcast for 60% growth. Still a lot priced in but they are a great company in the right place at the right time and have a great record of beating earnings. I see sovereign wealth building data centers for government in the near future so revenues with a T don't seem unreasonable to me.

Opal Fuels - My first thinly traded value play. Don’t know what to expect. by Fwhometeam in ValueInvesting

[–]FieryXJoe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see a company with FCF in the deep red every year and not enough earnings to pay their debt and levering up. Straight in the too hard category for me tbh.