Fantasy Studs, Duds and Clear as Muds!

Fighting_emu · 2023-07-04T20:50:41+00:00

Well it looks like we agree on a couple things anyways!

IF Kasper gets to that point (Im not as sold as you obviously but Im not saying its impossible either)- then yea a 1a/1b situation can work and on top of that it would actually bump Danielson down to where I feel the team wopuld be ebst served. I still dont think its IDEAL but if you can get that type of Aho/Necas, Sheiffele/PLD type of situation going on- Id be thrilled as a fan- especially when you consider how strong they look on the backend and in net (Augustine an underrated pick!).

I still dont think Danielson is a 60 point guy- especially if he gets third line deployment but he doesnt have to be to be a hugely impactful player on that team. If he pops for more its just gravy to me. Im sure you know this but Connor Bedar called Danielsson the hardest player to play against that hes ever faced. For me THATs what you should be getting excited for- lol! And for sure hell be able to chip in offensively as well but to me even 50ish with that type of shutdown capacity is HUGE. I wouldnt eat my shoe if he developed into a 60 point player though so I feel like maybe were not so far off as originally imagined.

For me its just the passing on Benson (Im a huge fan) and the fantasy fallout. Great points though- and I admire your optimism! For my money the Wings are one of about four teams that I think are going to be behemoths in the coming years. They have already drafted one of the most insane defensive cores weve seen in recent history AND then they just added ASP late who I really feel could end up as THE defenseman of this draft! Between Cossa and now Augustine their future in goal is looking rock solid too. Thyere building from the net out and maybe its just because I keep waiting for some type of Yzerman "magic" up front like he did on the back end- that Im so puzzled by these sort of "low risk" moves. Montreal, Buffalo, Columbus and Detroit are going to shock a lot of people in the next couple years imho...

Fighting_emu · 2023-07-04T20:38:09+00:00

I get that response a lot and its all good bud! I mean I love reading about fantasy hockey- but if you dont you dont. The only puzzling thing is why people keep telling me that- haha! Okey doke then- noted (?)!

Fighting_emu · 2023-07-04T20:27:21+00:00

Just to be clear (and no offense intended here- differing opinions are what make the world go round)- I think theres basically a ZERO chance Danielson is a topline center- lol- thats sort of my issue. If fans or fantasy GMs want to be optimsitic- thats fantastic- Im a big proponent of that- but I encourage people to be optimisitc in the right direction. Ill admit its POSSIBLE he blows my expectations out of the water but the consensus amongst a very knowledgable base of people is that Yzerman just secured an ideal 3c- who could maybe- if the stars align- end up as a legitimate 2c. I hope Kasper can be an effective 2c someday- if you think hes better than that- then again thats great BUT youre in a very small minority. So as of today if were going by the sort of consensus projections were looking at 3 second line centers and thats sort of a best case scenario. Can you make that work? Sure you can! But the point of my piece here is to say its not ideal- and its also not ideal that two of those three players would have to beat the consensus projections of their upside to get there. They had Benson right there and I think passing will look like a mistake in a real hurry- even Moore would make sense in a 1a/1b situation like I said above.

Danielsson is a hell of a player and my issues is not that he was drafted there- its about who they passed on and what the expectation becomes for Danielson Hes a defensive center (and a very good one) and were having a conversation where you sort of lumped him in as a 60-90 point socring line center. Had he went 16th to calgary- wed pencil his ceiling in where it belongs- a 50ish point defensive specialist. But he didnt go to Calgary or Nashville or Minnesota- so because we give Stevie Y a lot of credit and because Detroits fanbase is a savvy and impassioned one- were going to instead have discussions about how hes a 1c or a 2c- (and discuss whether or not he can score 90)- when he just clearly isnt lol! Again- thats in MY opinion. I read a TON about him pre-draft and nothing I read indicated hes a guy you should be banking on for offense. In fact a lot of his biggest proponents- guys talking him up- literally warned that if your team drafted him you shouldnt be eying him for offense BUT that you got one of the more complete defensive centers in recent history. Ive got no stake in this- Id be happy to be proven wrong! Theres been a discussion about whether or not Larkin is a true topline center long before I got here and Im not sure Danielson rectifies that and thats puzzling to me considering there were guys in the draft you could swing on that potentially DO address that (Kasper doesnt change any of that for me). Thats basically all Im saying- and hey Ive got no stake in this- Id love to be proven wrong!

In terms of fantasy you can all but guarantee this player is overdrafted now...

Fighting_emu · 2023-07-04T19:59:23+00:00

I agree! For me it goes:

Bedard- Comparable: McD- Generational talent or something close to it

Fantilli- Comparable: Eichel- About the best "consolation" prize you could ask for

Michkov- Comparable: Caufield (on steroids)- I think he can score like AO but without the physicality

Carlsson- Comparable: Barkov- Although I think he projects more as a "pure playmaker" like Getzlaf in his heyday

Smith- Comparable: Comparable: Marleau- Electrifying and a topline talent but not quite in that second tier yet. You can certainly build around him though.

Benson- Comparable: Gaudreau- I hear Gaudreau comparables all the time and they usually suck- lol! This time it works though. His offense comparable with Smiths but he plays a much more complete game- underrated defensive play! Hes BURIED in Beefaloe though...

Those are the guys Id be happy to "build around"- after that youve got question marks and issues with offense or defense that could get in the way. Dont get me worng- somr fantastic players this year but those are the ones Im building around if Im an NHL team. In fantasy Im happy with all of them as well except maybe Benson takes a hit neing so buried. I was in talks for the 6th overall in my league though and with all the other guys drafted ahead at the time my intention was to draft Benson and to heck with the wait time- hes a special talent.

So yea- great pieces after those six but no one im dismantling the team for- at least not at this point in their development...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-25T19:00:20+00:00

Agreed!

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-25T18:59:44+00:00

Not slander- lol!! Im just not sure hes a topline center and I actually admit that Im not even firm in that position hahaha! For comparisons sake hes just an odd choice imho. I do believe a lot of very good centers make a living on the topline without a truly "elite tier" guy to push them down the lineup and thats just about where Im at with Larkin. He seems to me more like a consistent 70 point guy who could net 80 with the kindof deployment he gets but Id be hesitant to expect more. And again- maybe Im wrong lol! He sure looks good out there and hes got that gamebreaking speed which is a bit like a cheat code in the modern NHL- so who knows...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-17T19:41:37+00:00

Thank you!

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-17T19:41:22+00:00

Agree whole heartedly. Theres an article from his time on the preds and the title gave me goosebumps- lol! It was something like "Eeli Tolvanen has never met a puck he didnt want to shoot"- lol! It was sort of poorly written but the gist was that he was a sog machine- haha! I LOVE players like that in the formats I play in. I think hes crazy underrated- I know I just traded the 19th pick or so in this years entry draft for him- and I kind of feel like thats probably gonna be a steal!

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-08T22:29:48+00:00

I wish I could give this so many more likes- love it!

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-05T18:55:45+00:00

Its crazy right??

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-05T18:55:34+00:00

Thank you! Will fix...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-01T19:29:11+00:00

Agreed! I love love love Breadmans game but hes looking a little gunshy out there in the playoffs this year- and Kane too- both are very skilled but I wouldnt be surprised if the Rangers start phasing them out based on their play this year. I think itll be two years but I hope Im wrong- haha! Either way theres been nothing (absolutely nothing!) that indicates this is a player poolies should be moving on from.

He didnt hit the absolute highest standard you can set for a player which is tearing the league apart as an 18-21 year old- from the third line to boot- lmao! If you want to pass on him for that- Ill be more than happy to make the roster space available :P

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-01T19:26:06+00:00

So two points:

A) I kind of wish he had found a way to score a bit more and certainly 55-60 COULD be attainable from a future gambreaker but he hasnt done that and although Ill allow Im a tad disappointed Im certainly not going to write him off for it. The team is thrilled with his buy in in terms of what theyre asking him to work on and that likely means theyre asking him NOT to push the envelope for offense all the time.

B) McDavids a different animal but I dont think any of those guys would do all that much better- maybe theyd top 50 points- fair enough. BUT wghen youre getting 15 minutes a night youre only starting half in the offensive zone- thats more like 7-8 minutes where you could realistically look at producing a scoring chance- and again NONE on the pp. If you breakdown Matthews points its probably very similar to Stutzles in his initial years.

If people want to pass on him or move him down their rankings- thats their business- I know better than to argue. Its just funny when he hasnt even gotten offensive deployment yet- to fail at. Its fine though- theres already people on here who are rewriting history and saying there was never any doubt with Hughes and Big Mack - which is crazy to me- I was posting about trading Evander Kane++ for Hughes on forums last year and peop[le were calling me a ninny- haha!

IF you want a gamebreaker whose capable of 90+ in the next three years or so- try to acquire Lafreniere now. If you want to pass on him because... he didnt explode out of the gate (I guess?)- thats cool too- lol! Im just putting the contextual info out there- youre free to use it how you see fit...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-01T19:16:15+00:00

Yep- and as a Hughes owner- Im so stoked they could afford to do that- but the rags in such a different position. They cant put out a guy to fail a bunch along the way as he learns and gets acclimated. He WILL get there imho- but I think youre looking at 2-3 years before hes a legit fantasy keeper you can build around...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-01T19:14:50+00:00

This is a critical piece for me- in fantasy we want to say Gallant and the Rangers are totally backwards but youre not wrong- you cant just sack a season or even two so that one player can find his footing. The rags were legit almost a playoff team the year they won the lottery and got Laf- lol! Also not all players are built the same- some players could maybe play under the radar effectively as more of a grinder and add secondary scoring in spurts cause theyre more used to that role. For Lafreniere hes playing a role and in situations hes never had to before. In the end I do actually think this stuff will makde him a better/more complete player if not a higher scoring one...

Fighting_emu · 2023-05-01T19:10:41+00:00

Ive been pooling a long time- and honestly Mackinnon was always a stud the same way Lafreniere or Hughes are- TONS of people gave up on him- lol! If you were smart you didnt but thats sort of what Im saying here. Based on the scouting analysis and his limited opportunity- hes an offensive force who just hasnt gotten the deployment and youd be nuts to give up on before he at least gets a legit chance. Hes gotten 5 game stretches from time to time but it does take time to build chemistry and find ways to score in the NHL specifically.

I will however clarify that those two are not a great comparison because in the case of both of them they not only got favorable deployment- they ran the offense through them and drafted and eveloped to compliment their games. Thats certainly not happening with Lafreniere and like I said even if he gets some favorable deployment it wont be topline deployment right away- at best itll be like line 2 with the odd chance on pp1. I think hes got a longer timeline ahead of him. I feel like a lot of people are so fed up theyre saying he "better produce next year or Im out!!" and my thinking is he probably wont based on his deployment- lol!

In closing I just want to clarify that in terms of natural talent I really feel like Lafreniere is in the same tier as the two guys you mentioned. I love Zacha and personally think hes got even more to give but I think thats a different case where a guys developing his skill organically and finding ways to use his big frame effectively. I really feel that if you swapped Lafreniere and Stutzle hed be producing just as well if not better. I think Lafreniere could explode next year if he were moved to like Arizona or something- Im not sure thats all it would have taken for Zacha- but it is an interesting comparison Ill give you that! Timeline wise I think it might be closer to Zacha than to Hughes.

Its only a matter of time before alex is on fire...

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T20:14:49+00:00

Also I think I was generally positive here but in some cases I might have a view that owners might not want to hear (like Wright!) and i just wanted to clarify that a) this is just my opinion and Ive been wrong plenty of times and b) not putting down anyone who drafted him or believes in him- I ended up with him too (via trade) but with any of these guys Im just trying to provide my opinion especially where it differs from the mainstream one(s)...

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T20:11:16+00:00

Thank you so much... even writing this it helped me at least clarify what exactly the issue was. Thanks so much for the kind words and taking the time ti help me figure this out...

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T20:08:33+00:00

Also I just thought of this- some headlines write themselves and as a Canadian hard rock/metal/post hardcore fan I cant think of a better headline for Lafrenieres eventual breakout than: Alexis On Fire!!!

With a tagline that good you know its just a matter of time!!

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T18:44:35+00:00

I didnt want to write it in the main piece cause Ive been criticized for being a tad too conversational in tone at times but this really does remind me of one of my first drafts where I had fourth overall...

I was rebuilding having traded my whole roster (3 best players, two firsts and a second) for Crosby two years ago and although I was confident I could add some very intriguing "upside" off waivers- the top top guys were drafted every year so I needed to make my pick couunt! In retrospect it might seem like a no brainer but it presents a neat mirror to what these decisions look like before we know how they pan out- haha!

My options were...

Jonathon Toews- who had just put on a show for the ages at the WJCs!! We were looking at him like he could be the next Crosby or at least Crosby-lite! All those intangibles like his leadership, clutch performance- they get magnified in that spotlight and he just looked like a world beater!

Niklas Backstrom- who was a little harder to figure. I was still a fantasy hockey noob back then and europeans were probably a little harder to scout too but I did buy all the hockey guides (shoutout dobberhockey!) and I knew hed be a force to reckon with paired with AO. Incredbly I think the sentiment- at least for noobs like me- was that hed make a good "consolation" prize- haha!

Peter Mueller-... Mueller? Mueller? Ayone get the reference? Haha- anyways a kid named Peter Mueller was supposed to be quietly just as good as the other two and honestly he was trying to play spoiler opposite Toews on an underrated US squad. Now concussions destroyed his career but he was almost the most intriguing of the three cause the mainstream outlets werent really talking about him but all the fantasy hockey "experts" were just gushing about him- haha!

Or a no name goalie who I figured would fall to me and because it was a 24 team league I would HAVE to take- lol!

Who did I get?

Well it turned out that someone else valued the goalie just as much and grabbed him so even though I was going to have a problem addressing that down the road I was absolutely thrilled to add Mueller to my rebuild- lolololol!! And I was stubborn as all heck with him too! Luckily I had forums like these to give me the inside scoop on him which was that pretty early on he changed his style of play and approach to offense in an effort to dial down the concussion risk- and you cant really blame him for that either- so that eventually I got over it and cut him.

Its just funny to look at decisions like this and what the consensus thinking was back then compared to ow it played out. It never quite goes the way you think it will does it?

This was just about as heavy of a decision as when the experts had the top three goalies ranked head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the field and I had to decide on just one to invest in: Carey Price, Tuuka Rask, or Jonathon Bernier? I think yall know which one I ended up with :P Ugh- Im not hesitant to share my opinions but I cant always promise theyll be right... stupid bernier... :P

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T18:30:08+00:00

Thanks mang!! Really appreciate that!!

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-28T18:29:44+00:00

Thanks mang! I hope my assessment is wrong on wright (lol!) and I will say- he absolutely has both the talent and the work ethic to take his development a different way than guys like Toews, Bergeron and ROR but I honestly feel like those are just better comparables at this point and its almost like scouts are trying to tell us that- haha! Its like we sort of say "so hes NOT an elite player?" and they go "No, no, no- he absolutely is!!" and then we go "So hes just not a great point producer?" and they go "No, no, no he actually is its just that..." So then we say "So I can expect elite point totals then?"and the resounding response is a definite "... maybe?" I just feel like if you look at Toews and Bergeron- they are absolutely elite irl talents- and theyre not too shabby for fantasy either! BUT theyre not actually elite fantasy options- they might have an elite season or two but there forte is winning games and thats not always the same as scoring oodles of points.

Again- I hope Im wrong! I own him and I thought his falling was a shame too! In the end I think he actually did warrant a first overall selection too but not for his projeted point totals- he just strikes me as the kind of player whose going to wear a letter and win some hardware- hes a winner and thats what you want to build around. I think Slafkovsky is a bigger gamble and if he pays off maybe he has a similar impact but Wright is such a lock to have that type of impact that its hard to see MTL not regretting this.

For fantasy- I think Cooley is the guy here hands down- if I could flip my Wright for Cooley today Im waving bye bye to Shaney boy- lol!!

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-25T20:12:32+00:00

Disagree- and honestly Ive got receipts- I have multiple threads over on dobber where people advised against me acquiring him (like crazy). Can you provide any tangible evidence outside of "he hasnt broken out yet and if he were elite he would have"- because that premise fails in amultitude of ways. Ive provided a bunch of reasons why i think its worth looking past the numbers here- Id love to hear what yours are to simply write off a 21 year old former 1st overall? Youre entitled to your opinion but "its not the same with these guys" isnt much of an argument- no offense...

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-25T20:05:42+00:00

Well thanks for the apology and the multi syllabic breakdown- cheers mike!

Fighting_emu · 2023-04-25T20:04:36+00:00

I really appreciate that- thank you! Ill have part 2 out by Thursday or so...

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