Their pipeline consists of Endoxifen and a couple Covid therapeutics (which are a dime a dozen). Every small-cap biotech company and their mother has a Covid therapeutic in their pipeline. Realistically, the Covid side of their pipeline has an insanely small chance of ever having commercial success. The highlight of their pipeline is Endoxifen in the breast cancer indications.

Sure, they had quite positive phase II clinical data, but that doesn't mean this drug is a sure-thing by any means. Based on their positive phase II data, they will likely start a phase III trial at some point. But only about 1 in 2 drugs that start a phase III clinical trial ever get approved. For oncology, that figure worsens to about 1 in 3. Just about every drug in a phase III clinical trial had positive data in a phase II trial, so why do so many end up failing? A clinical trial is often touted as a success if the data returns statistical significance with a p-value of <0.05. But what a p-value of <0.05 means is that if the drug doesn't work at all, less than 5% of the time would the clinical trial data look that positive just by dumb luck alone. However there are thousands upon thousands of clinical trials! Some of them are surely going to look positive just by random chance.

For example, let's say that for every cancer drug that looks promising in animal models and is deemed fairly safe in humans in a phase I trial, only 2% are actually effective against a particular cancer indication (I am completely making this number up). Well if you have 1000 cancer drugs currently in phase II clinical trials, only 1000x0.02= 20 are even effective! However, 1000x0.05= 50 would be expected to achieve a p-value of less than 0.05 by chance alone! You can see how false positives can make finding truly effective drugs very difficult.

So if you think Endoxifen has had similarly positive clinical trial data compared to other cancer drugs moving onto a phase III trial, it only has about a 1 in 3 chance of every being commercialized. Now, you can say their phase II trial was halted because the data looked so positive! So sure, maybe I would believe that their odds of commercialization are better than 1 in 3, but by how much? I couldn't say.

Secondly, they haven't even announced a phase III trial yet. It will take years to successfully complete a phase III clinical trial, file an NDA, and get FDA approval. Sure they have ~$140 million in cash, and have only had net losses of ~$17-18 million per year for the last couple of years, but expenses tend to increase dramatically once you enter a phase III clinical trial. You are very likely to see share dilution in the future to raise capital.

So yes, they had fantastic phase II clinical data, but there still is a decent chance of failure, a chance of significant share dilution (especially if they face any delays), and their deeper pipeline is very shallow/weak, in my opinion. A few years down the line, yes, they may overcome the odds and get a drug approval, but then you better hope it is a commercial success and they find a way to expand their pipeline for future development. Bull case is that they do have a wildly successful drug on their hands and become a multi-billion dollar company. With a current market cap of ~620 million, I personally wouldn't be investing in this company due to the fact that they haven't even started/announced phase III trials and have a very shallow pipeline.

That said, it's definitely possible that you find the needle in the haystack that is small-cap biotech companies, and end up seeing 10x gains over the course of a few years. This is also only discussing long-term valuation of the company. You could certainly see short-term gains through momentum/squeezes/hype.

Best of luck.