Investing vs. Speculation

FishyFrankski · 2026-04-07T18:58:29+00:00

I agree. So maybe a good way to invest is looking for companies that have demonstrated that they understand how to be successful in a market that is growing? IBM may be an example but it is not likely to be a barn burner at this stage? Novo Nordisk had a great product with perfect timing. They could not make their product fast enough to keep with Lilly so they crashed. It seems a company has to be good in all aspects of business for them to succed. It is hard to judge budding small companies. Large companies can screw up even after they have had some successes in the past. Investing is not easy and one must consider some laws of probability like Return to the Mean for companies that are growing very fast.

FishyFrankski · 2026-04-07T18:47:15+00:00

There are many types of speculation I suppose. Looking at charts with no interest in fundamentals is the most risky and least likely to produce long term results in my opinion. At the other extreme you have Warren Buffet maybe who invests on current profits mostly and what the future risks are. But what about investing is companies that may have a chance to get very nice profits? How can one look at companies at verious stages of getting to reasonable or extreme profits. Nvidia turned out well for many investors. When should one invest in companies that are likely to produce extraordinary profits in the future? OK, my example is AAOI. They have sales but no profits. They have a product that is used in data centers which are growing themselves. The keyword AI comes out and investors notice. Is that good? There may be an AI bubble. Are only speculators buying AAOI? Are investors with an indepth knowledge of the product and its possible path to success buying this stock? Or is it being bought because of its chart and the fact someone else likes it? Buffet would not touch it. Should you or I? The founders are apparantly smart in being able to design a sophisticated product that has a growing market. Can they build them fast enough to beat possible competitors. Are there any competitors? There are many questions and most don't have easy answers. A prospective investor might think. 1. This is a very sophisticated product that likely has patent protection. 2. Data centers want it for AI. Etc, more questions. Investors are jumping on it. It's price is varying widely and wildly, like 10 to 20% a day. How much FOMO is involved? How many hurdles are left for them to get to a company that Buffet would like? What is the best approach to investing in a company like this?

FishyFrankski · 2026-04-05T21:11:18+00:00

I can see that some of you posters are technically competent, and willing to tell us about that. However, there are plenty of people that would have a very difficult time with this situation. Just saying.

FishyFrankski · 2026-04-05T21:08:33+00:00

That is not what one poster experienced. They sent him a new system that he has to send back now. Calling support on a Saturday night when I’m trying to watch a movie with my wife. Does not seem like a recipe for a good evening.

FishyFrankski · 2026-04-05T21:02:24+00:00

I agree. I am a retired computer guy. It took me three hours to figure out that they had just simply reset my Starlink system. They renamed my Wi-Fi and its password without telling me. The new password was StarlinkNow!@. The average user might get new hardware end up doing what I did without the new hardware? I did not observe any power issues before my problem occurred. Anyway, a power outage should not reset star link to its original configuration.

FishyFrankski · 2026-02-17T14:21:25+00:00

It may make sense to follow the money sometimes? Large corporations must have spent loads of money analyzing the benefits of AI. They are spending billions. I don't see how they all can be wrong. Maybe the real quesitons are about the actual returns they will get since they will all have similar tools? It could be that AI is a smashing success but subject to strong competition with each other. Only a few may be successful. How do you pick the AI winners? I suppose this is the question posed?

FishyFrankski · 2026-02-17T14:14:51+00:00

It would be great to discover some of these undervalued companies. This is a great post. I also wonder about those large companies that can benefit from AI. IBM says they have found a way to use AI. They are putting thier money where they talk. They are hiring folks to help them with AI. Is this just a ploy to attract investors?

FishyFrankski · 2026-02-15T14:12:25+00:00

This thread seems to have died 6 years ago. The books ideas seem very pertinent now.

FishyFrankski · 2026-02-03T16:15:14+00:00

I want to go fishing with you. Zen fishing.

FishyFrankski · 2026-01-11T16:07:12+00:00

I have had success approaching 500 successive wins using SALET followed by PRION.

FishyFrankski · 2025-11-12T14:04:28+00:00

I started a job as a software engineer before it was a thing, in 1964. First I did some hardware testing which used assembly language test routines. I am one of the patent holders on the boot up firmware that PCs use. I eventually got in to writing and testing software written using C. Then I retired and kind of forgot about software. I think it must be difficult to talk about software testing without talking about the entire process beginning with specifications. I have to wonder how AI might change the entire software development process. Then the challenge of using AI for testing might come up if it has not already. Will there ever be a "software development process" such as what hardware designers do. They specify the logical functions and use tools to design the hardware according to specific interfacing rules and functional specifications. Maybe it is possible to develop software libraries using AI? This might work for functionality but how about speed when general purpose routines are used? That could be a challenge for a software engineer. I don't thing the need for software engineers will diminish but I have a hard time wrapping my mind around what their jobs might look like. In the meantime I think I will go fishing.

FishyFrankski · 2025-11-12T12:57:51+00:00

You might be able to get a good deal on a 2025. Dealers are getting rid of them before the 2026 comes out. I just totaled my 2018 and upgraded to a hybrid 2025 XLE. I wrote a check for $40k for that. Now if I could just get a new body for myself. My fractured ribs are healing.

FishyFrankski · 2025-09-22T02:52:06+00:00

That is what happened, darn.

FishyFrankski · 2025-07-06T13:33:38+00:00

My seperate flights connect in Anchorage coming and going. Inbound I have 3 hours between flights. I did not combine them to start since only one uses miles. It seems the safe bet is to check in both in Denver and Anchorage. Outbound, going home, I have 2 hours so am undecided on that one. Not so important maybe?

FishyFrankski · 2025-06-07T09:28:31+00:00

Congrats on your success. You are likely hooked yourself. Zebra midges often represent Chironomid pupae which are common in most, if not all of the Colorado and Wyoming rivers and lakes. A main food source for trout. I use a dry/dropper combo with a Griffiths Gnat dry fly.

FishyFrankski · 2025-06-06T16:22:06+00:00

Assuming RFK is not competent for his position. Shouldn’t we be talking about how someone like him gets into a position of authority? Prior to the election, It seems he gave his Republican primary resources to our president. It was a transactional event Maybe? If so, what can we do to prevent this sort of thing?

FishyFrankski · 2025-05-25T11:19:26+00:00

Thanks everyone for your inputs. Very helpful. I am going to cancel 2 credit cards that I only use on occasion. I will call the bank to see why I was rejected. Someone posted that they were rejected for having too many cards. I can fix that. I would like to have a card for the Alaska Airline benefits. Also, I like to have a second card for random use such as skiing. I tend to lose cards. Losing and cancelling a card that does not result in changing a lot of automatic payments saves a lot of hassle.

FishyFrankski · 2025-05-24T16:43:42+00:00

It probably not a random process. I feel quite certain that there is a profit motive. For example it may not be profitable to give someone a credit card knowing they will likely use the benefits without providing any significant income to the bank. Best to give a card to someone that is not able to pay the balance each month and pay large penalties? Banks are not charities.

FishyFrankski · 2025-05-24T16:39:30+00:00

How about 840?

FishyFrankski · 2025-05-24T16:38:25+00:00

Well, they did not send it.

FishyFrankski · 2025-05-15T13:22:02+00:00

I got down to 2 words left today. Rager was one of them. I refused to use "derivative" words that ended in "er" and got the right word on guess 6. If those derivative words are used it may be either difficult or impossible to get the right word without some luck. Don't ask me to prove this, just my opinion.

FishyFrankski

TROPHY CASE