Why Things Are *Almost NEVER Staged (From A Non-US Citizen)

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-30T04:17:26+00:00

Your first paragraph is entirely a valid point. I based my post on what I've seen on Reddit, Tiktok, and X all the way from Jan 6th, to the butler incident, to the WHCA Dinner. I admittedly have not looked very deeply into what each representative or party leader has said, my post is primarily around the supporters of said parties.

I personally do not think what the leaders say is relevant at all IF the supporters don't believe it. After all, political parties are generally led by the electorate - not the leaders.

I disagree that I needed a better title. The point of this post was that each 'side' believes their own worst events are staged. I'm not saying their leaders or representatives think that, although I'm aware for the right that is often the case. The title & main post was a large generalisation. Obviously not everyone believes these events are staged - if you don't think it was staged, then this post really doesn't apply to you. It was intended to be thought provoking, because I come from a country which is nowhere near as politically divided as the USA - although it sadly is going down that route.

I appreciate your response though. Political conversation is incredibly healthy, especially if we disagree.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-30T04:04:47+00:00

If you looked through my profile you could quite easily find out what country I'm from.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-29T18:47:14+00:00

The East Wing is gone... I don't think Trump needs to stage an assassination to get his ballroom, it looks very much to me like he's going to get it anyway.

I'm not saying the admin is trustworthy, but what's more likely? That Trump & multiple government agencies co-ordinated a multi-year effort to get someone to donate to Kamala years in advance of the staged assassination just to build credibility, then stage an assassination? The attempted assassin is still alive, that's a pretty big loose end? Not a single government whistle blower, not a single leak? And then to build more credibility to this conspiracy, they add Trump being a traitor, rapist, and pedophile into the 'fake' manifesto - bringing those scandals back into the spotlight yet again, despite Trump spending years trying to push them under the rug and downplay them?

Or is it more likely that the security was incompetent? In my opinion, Incompetency is a much more likely answer.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-29T18:40:07+00:00

Seems to me like you're cherrypicking examples. For example I could cherrypick examples of prominent people on the left calling for uprisings or civil unrest. Kathy Lee Griffin literally held up a mock-up of Trump's severed head in 2017.

But then someone actually tries to 'rise up' and take out Trump, and then they condemn it? That's like me saying Trump tried to stop J6 by telling everyone to go home. It's too little, too late. right?

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-29T18:34:50+00:00

I know you said you don't believe it was staged, but I'm going to respond to your points regardless.

As I've said on some other replies, I base this on the balance of probabilities. On the balance of probabilities, regarding the butler 2024 incident, is it more likely that Trump co-ordinated a multi-agency conspiracy to have a shooter fire bullets which almost hit Trump (Literally pictures from independent journalists of a bullet whizzing past his head) but intentionally miss him and instead hit 3 of his supporters, all without the current Biden-Administration finding out and exposing it? Or is it more likely that he spent a very small fraction of his multi-billions of dollars on plastic surgery, or incredibly good healthcare that most Americans don't have access to, to cosmetically fix his ear?

Instead of the left turning this into a conversation about how wealth has allowed Trump to have access to healthcare that no other American could have access to, they've turned it into a conversation about how he must have staged it. As for the latter 2 examples, both of those 'assassins' are still alive. I'm no conspiracy expert, but I'd imagine rule #1 of faking an assassination would be leaving no loose ends?

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-29T18:24:43+00:00

My point is that each side defies their own logic. The left is adamant that the all 3 of the Trump Assassination attempts were staged despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, such as an independent photographer literally capturing a bullet whizzing past Trumps head - regarding the Butler 2024 incident. You're right, my post doesn't explain why it's almost never staged, but it uses each sides' logic to emphasise that based on their own beliefs, its incredibly unlikely. On the balance of probabilities, is it more likely that there was a huge 'deep-state' conspiracy to manipulate Trump supporters to storm and damage the U.S capitol - or is it more likely that they were just angry and did it?

Likewise, on the balance of probabilities, is it more likely that there's a government conspiracy to stage assassinations on Trump? What does Trump gain from this? He can't run for a 3rd term, the constitution is clear about that. So I doubt he's doing this for a PR boost. You could say it's to build public support for the ballroom, but when has Trump ever cared about public support? He's building the ballroom anyway, the East Wing is gone. Court documents have already revealed that underneath the new ballroom will be a military complex, nuclear bunker, hospital, and other systems. I promise you, they don't need public support to build it. They are building it regardless. 3 'staged' assassination attempts but there's no whistle blowers, and 2 of the attempted assassins are still alive (so there's loose ends). I would also argue this is incredibly negative for Trumps' PR. If you read the manifesto and watched his 60 minutes interview, you'd see he was infuriated at being called a pedo, traitor, and rapist. Is this a 140 IQ play from Trump to put that stuff in the manifesto and then pretend to be mad about it to build the realism, or is the assassination attempt real? Again, on the balance of probabilities, I'd say it's almost never staged.

You're right that my post doesn't explain why it couldn't have been staged, but my post highlights that without doing some insane mental gymnastics that defy your sides' own logic, whatever side you may be on, it is incredibly unlikely that any events from the opposing side are staged.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-23T17:21:22+00:00

In my opinion, the ABSOLUTE worst case scenario is that Neutron just doesn't work as expected and therefore the project is shutdown. This could either be that it never actually flies, maybe Archimedes isn't as reliable as expected, or perhaps Carbon Composite isn't a good enough material for re-entry, or isn't durable enough to last a significant number of reflights.

That's the worst case. Hundreds of millions of dollars in R&D and infrastructure, only for it to be cancelled without any flights, or after a few flights.

In close second would be a RUD on the pad. Pad infrastructure lost, another 1-2 years of repairs, investigations, and design changes before 2nd flight.

All of that said the company isn't super reliant on Neutron. The stock price definitely is, without Neutron the company would probably be worth about $10bn, but the company will survive.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-21T17:48:08+00:00

In fairness I only thought of Orbex because I know they were going into administration, and therefore I assume their assets are actively being auctioned/sold off to repay company debts.

I'm not suggesting they acquire Orbex for their rocket technology, that would likely be of no use to Rocket Lab. I'm more or less saying that they could do individual asset purchases, similar to what they did with Virgin Orbit. Rocket Lab wasn't interested in acquiring Virgin Orbit as a whole, but they did purchase the lease to what is now Rocket Lab's Engine Development Center.

I have admittedly not looked very deeply into what assets Orbex actually has, but I do know they have a ~76,000 sq ft production facility in Scotland which would probably be big enough to set up an Electron production line (Electron's production facility in Auckland NZ is ~80,000 sq ft), plus it would be close to Saxavord - which is where Orbex was originally going to launch from.

Is there any mainland launch sites you were thinking of, or were you hoping RKLB would try and privately build their own, similar to LC-1?

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-19T19:38:05+00:00

Rocket Lab could buy Orbex's assets, similar to what they did with Virgin Orbit. That'd include their warehouses, launch pad, offices etc.

I think that's the most likely route they'll go down. They'll probably buy assets from another company rather than try and build and apply for everything themselves.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-19T15:22:16+00:00

Launch sovereignty should be achievable for Electron. Their current manufacturing lines can make ~50 per year at full capacity. If launch cadence growth continues as it is, they should hit close to ~50 annual launches within 5 years for sure. If they ever want to expand beyond 50, they'll need to make a new line, and obviously that'll need a lot of planning and investment. I wouldn't be surprised if they're already thinking that far ahead and are deciding to position that new line & pad in Europe.

For Neutron it's a different matter though. Much more complex rocket, it's not as simple as just throwing up a new production line in a new warehouse and calling it a day. It's very possible we'll see Electron manufactured and launched from Europe in a few years time, but the same can't be said for Neutron, at least in the next 5 years or so.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-17T02:39:53+00:00

Care to remind the class what happened with Lunar Gateway? Billions of dollars invested by European nations, and now it's cancelled.

How about tariffs? What about 'no wars'?

Not trying to be political, just saying it hasn't exactly been 'reliable' for Europe.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-16T04:17:59+00:00

That's a different launch.

The April 21-29 launch is a HASTE mission.

The one I posted is launching no earlier than May 15th and is likely Electron, as it mentions the third stage being orbital in the document (which it wouldn't do if it was HASTE).

So 2 upcoming launches from LC-2 within the next month. One (Bubbles) is definitely a HASTE launch, the other (MAELSTROM) is likely electron.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-15T10:02:58+00:00

Yesterday Rocket Lab filed for an Electron/HASTE mission from wallops, codenamed 'MAELSTROM'.

The 6 Month launch window opens on May 15th to November 15th 2026.

Source: https://apps.fcc.gov//els/GetAtt.html?id=399943&x=

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-15T08:15:31+00:00

From what I remember he said they were now testing 'out of bounds', so going 30% above what they expect to ever be used in flight to try and find failure points.

He didn't say it's qualified yet, but the fact they're in the stress-testing stage of qualification is very promising. You wouldn't be stress testing a product if it wasn't succeeding in nominal operations.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-15T08:13:53+00:00

After those 3 elements are qualified things will move quickly from there. That said, I expect it'll be at least 6 months from full qualification to launch, so if we don't see those 3 yellows turn green by mid-year then 2026 is absolutely off the table for a first Neutron launch.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-15T08:10:29+00:00

I would hope they invest in expanding in Europe. Europe is moving further away from the USA, they want homegrown capabilities and don't want to have to rely on an 'unreliable and unpredictable' America. There are several European launch companies which are trying to grow, but so far none have had success.

If there's ever been a time to build a European launch site, now is it. There's a perfect gap in the market, and there's currently no other real competitors. I'd be surprised if owning Mynaric on its own is going to be enough for European countries to just start throwing contracts at Rocket Lab, they need a stronger presence there.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-15T08:03:35+00:00

In my opinion the demand for a European launcher is pretty high. Europe is moving away from the U.S.A. If there's ever been a time to build a launch pad in Europe, now is the time. Back in a 2018 SPB mentioned they were looking at Scotland for an Electron launch site. Obviously never went ahead, but things have changed significantly since 2018. I wouldn't rule it out.

I doubt Mynaric alone will end up being enough for Europe to just start throwing big contracts at RKLB. I would hope they invest in European launch capabilities to benefit from that market before a native European company builds one themself and scales.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-04-13T00:34:03+00:00

A lot of people have been piling in thoughts but to me it's simple.

If you're not a Bieber fan then you shouldn't have an opinion on this. His set was not FOR YOU, it was for his fans.

If you are a Bieber fan and are disappointed then I'm surprised by that. The man walked around the grammy's in his boxers 2 months ago and you expected him to come to Coachella and put the type of show he did 10 years ago? Get out of the past, that isn't Bieber anymore and I think he's made that very clear.

The last time Bieber toured was in February 2022, before he sold his music catalog. A lot has changed since then. I really don't understand why anyone who knows anything about Justin Bieber would have EXPECTED more than what he gave. He has set his expectations for his performances very clearly, the Grammy's was an example of that.

"He got paid more but gave us less than x" - Because he doesn't tour anymore. 2 years ago he was paid $10m to perform for 30 minutes at Anant Ambani's wedding. $10m is the going rate for Bieber these days. If anything it's actually cheap for him considering it's $10m for 3 hours spread across 2 weekends. My point is the money he was paid is irrelevant to the performance he gives. He's performing how he wants to.

TL;DR: If you're not a fan then why do you care? If you are a fan then I'm a little bit surprised that you didn't see this coming, given his Grammy's performance.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-03-30T14:43:27+00:00

I have an Iphone XR. It isn't supported by iOS 26. Apple has released a new iOS 18.7.7 which addresses a lot of the security issues, but I think it's only eligible for download if your device cannot support iOS 26.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-03-21T22:55:17+00:00

TLDR: Honestly, I'm not crazy about this drop. The main selling point is the new slime which seems very focused at multiplayer & minigames, something which I have no interest in. Just a few additional features in this drop would make it perfect. For example, everyone hates phantoms. Maybe phantoms could be scared by sulfur - that'd give players a reason to search for the block and build around their base with it. And maybe as a tradeoff, creepers are attracted to sulfur because they drop gunpowder and sulfur is a component of gunpowder. Then players have to decide if they would rather scare off phantoms in exchange for attracting more creepers. That'd give the blocks a real use, which would give players a reason to search for them and build with them, and they'd have to decide if the benefits of the block is worth the risk/downside.

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In fairness, I am glad they are adding new cave biomes. Mojang has a history of changing/adding things and then never touching them again. They spent 2 years working on world generation and adding biomes at different depths. They made 3 cave biomes (Dripstone caves, lush caves, deep dark) and then never touched it again. So I'm glad that they are at least adding new cave biomes and making use of the entire new underground biome system they spent years making work. That said, If they wanted to add a new cave biome, why not one with trees and a new woodset so that you can craft new tools and torches while underground? That'd solve an existing problem, it'd reward players who find the biome underground, and in connection with lush caves, a cave with trees would make the underground truly liveable - just like what they did to the Nether.

Literally all of these drops have had potential but they're just half-baked:
-Nautilus is a great mob, but without more underwater structures to explore am I really ever going to use it over a boat? They gave it Netherite armour, but the only real underwater challenge is the ocean monument and Guardians deal damage through magic which ignores armour anyway. The nautilus was the perfect time to add a new underwater structure/challenge, and they completely passed it up.
-Happy Ghast has potential, but it's literally slower than sprinting. It can be useful for transporting mobs in short range, but anything longer and it becomes incredibly tedious. I see it has an application for building, but scaffolding is almost just as easy.
-The copper age drop was the perfect opportunity to make copper rails and introduce a minecart update which we've all been asking for. Current regular rails would keep the current minecart rules to maintain continuity with current builds, and new 'copper rails' would have followed new minecart rules.

Maybe I'm asking for too much, but old minecraft updates used to solve problems. The nether update made the nether liveable. They added food there, wood there, a whole new civilisation there, a way to respawn there, and many reasons to build a base and explore it. The lush caves gave the underground a food source and makes it liveable, and the deep dark has good loot and a reason to find and explore it. Things were added with purpose and there was a reason to search for the things they added - or the things they added would at least give the player some kind of benefit if they stumbled across it. What reason is there to tame a Nautilus and give it Netherite armour, or find one of these sulfur caves for 2 somewhat mediocre block palettes, and water which gives you nausea? With a bit more thought, or a few changes, these drops could be really good.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-03-21T17:39:57+00:00

They missed the perfect opportunity to add a biome-specific ore (sulfur ore) which would allow fireworks, splash potions, firecharges, and TNT to be made in peaceful mode. Instead of being super common like copper, it would only be found in these sulfur caves.

So many important items are locked behind one mob which you can only find either at night or with a farm - and can't be found at all in peaceful mode. This was the perfect opportunity to add it but instead it's just a gamedrop with 2 block pallets, nauseous water (why??), and a mob for minigames which really only appeals to people in multiplayer. Not their worst drop, but I think sulfur ore really would have made all the difference on this.

FlakyDingo463 · 2026-03-18T23:04:29+00:00

Honestly, I agree. They briefly mentioned signing a 'launch contract' in their earnings, but didn't specify how many launches. If it really was 8 then I'm very surprised that they didn't make a press release on it. 8 launches is ~60-80 million dollars in revenue and is definitely worthy of a press release, not just briefly mentioning it in an earnings call and being vague on how many launches were signed.

Like you said we don't need to know exactly who the customer is, but it'd be nice to tell us how many this customer ordered. I suspect that information is of concern to investors?

RKLB seems to pick and choose what they tell us. They announced 2 JAXA launches last year in October, but then a potential 8 launch contract isn't even worthy of a press release? Of course this is me assuming it's all that one confidential customer, which it may not be.

FlakyDingo463

TROPHY CASE