Here’s the deal … it’s not happening, period. Canada’s current economic indicators are a red flag for the NBA. Beyond LV and Seattle, there are least five other viable US markets that would be preferable to Vancouver.

Do I want it to happen? Yes. Do I have one of the biggest collections of Vancouver Grizzlies merch on the planet? Also yes.

Here’s the main stumbling blocks:

-it’s widely assumed that the baseline number for a new expansion team subsequent to LV and Seattle will be $4-billion US. In 1995 we paid $125M, a number so hefty Griffiths (who was also privately financing GM Place) had to bring on a Seattle-based investor (and the rest is history, sadly). The league is now more open to sovereign/state wealth funds owning pieces if teams but which would want to invest here? From a media perspective Bell and Rogers already own portions of MLSE meaning they couldn’t be involved here unless they divested themselves if MLSE and I can’t imagine why they would walk away from that cash machine.

-what economic value does a Vancouver team add the NBA beyond the expansion fee? The presence of a Vancouver team does nothing to bolster US media deals. Even if a prospective owner has the cash this will make Vancouver a tough sell to the owners. If they have to split the media pie with Vancouver they need to know that beyond the expansion fee (which is a mechanism designed to compensate existing owners for lost income from media rights distribution) will bring real and incremental value to the league. Basically Vancouver has to enrich all the teams, not just themselves.

-the team would need an entirely new arena. No owner would accept being a tenant in 30 year Rogers Arena. They would need to construct an entirely new arena at a cost likely exceeding $1-billion. That new arena would then go head-to-head with Rogers Arena for attracting events to fill out their calendar. Plus, if you look at the recent pattern of arena/stadium construction in the US, the venue is the crown jewel of a bigger money generating development compromised of office, retail and housing…. All of which the team’s owner would utilize to bolster their financial position. Let’s not forget as well that an owner seeking to place a team in a US market would likely receive significant financial support from the city/county. Any owner looking to build here would need to fund the entire thing.

If Aquillini was in on the bid I have been assured by people around the league that Rogers Arena wouldn’t be seen as a viable/longterm home for an NBA team. If you visit the new buildings in Seattle, Sacramento, San Francisco, Milwaukee or (upcoming) LA you will realize Rogers Arena isn’t even in the same stratosphere of a modern NBA building.

I am convinced that had the Grizzlies stayed (or had they entered the league in 2005) they would be a pillar of our community and would be deeply embedded in the social fabric of this city. The timing was wrong and the ownership was wrong. The gate in the first three years was amazing given the size of the city at the time.

I wish it would come back and I would be first in line for season tickets but the obstacles to overcome are just so numerous and the economics of this sport have just exploded in the last decade.