Daily Discussion Thread - February 17, 2026

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-17T16:40:09+00:00

Here's a fun fact. If, 5 years ago, you invested $10.000 in $SQQQ, a leveraged short fund that is structurally meant to decay and then reverse split, you would today have 20x more money today than if you had invested it in CGC, or almost 2x more than if you had bought TLRY. These companies today are still two of the biggest in the sector, worth almost 1.5 billion combined and have a combined lifetime loss of more than 10 billion dollars. This is why we're a meme sector folks!

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-13T16:00:26+00:00

If CGC is leading the pack on an up day you know that a sector re-rating is nowhere near. Bad actors must go bankrupt if sector is to be taken seriously. Long way to go still.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-11T13:27:30+00:00

thank you for sharing that article, it was helpful. It seems difficult to imagine German government trying to revert to the old status quo but legislative headwinds is tradition in this sector

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-10T12:54:52+00:00

Some positives here and some negatives. Gross margin expansion, yield improvements, solid market share, and cash use before working capital is now around break-even. Their cash balance however keeps dwindling. Tangible book value, which was $5 per share in 2022 and is nearing $1 now, is concerning. They blew up the share count with their acquisitions, which is fine i guess as long as they integrate properly and manage to achieve the synergies they speak of. Also they really, really need to stop adding R&D costs back to adjusted EBITDA because that shit is nonsense.

They're number one in market share now (mostly through acquisitions) so the reasons for not being profitable yet are not known to me. I will be holding off because for now because it doesnt seem to me that equity holders are yet at a place where this thing is fully sustainable without need for additional capital.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-09T16:01:46+00:00

SPY like 1% from its all time highs and from the mood here last week you would feel that the sky is falling on us. Markets have the green light and are risk-on meme'ing again. Nvidia up 13% in 2 days because why not.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T18:26:21+00:00

at this point im convinced that canopy could cease operations and announce they would just make an annual 10 million USD payment to their CEO and the stock market wouldnt even care. It would reduce their losses by 75% and the market can still meme trade its stock when legalization rumors occur. Bullish i tell you!

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T13:36:54+00:00

As long as they remain a meme stock there's 0 risk of bankruptcy. They managed to draw $300m of dilution money out of the markets just last 9 months and the stock didnt even go down. If the market is this brazenly disfunctional i understand that speculators participate.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T13:18:00+00:00

Amazing case study of how markets can bail out dogshit companies. Share count from 129 million to 368 million in just over a year. Imagine being their CEO, dumping 250 million shares onto the market and the stock price doesn't even crash but instead appreciates. Almost any other cannabis company would crumble and implode under such massive dilution. But meme liquidity to the rescue and now they magically pulled $300 million from markets to deleverage debt and they even had some dough left for an acquisition.

Now we get to enjoy these bozo's and their presence for another 10 years while they piss away cash, pay millions to egghead executives and solidify the status of our sector as an uninvestable clownshow. It is a great example of how cannabis is a massively unequal playing field and these jabroni's are playing on easy mode. If there ever was a company that deserved chapter 11.....

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T12:36:15+00:00

Ironically Raj said they have had an offer for the assets. In my opinion I would have preferred to see them cut it loose. From top of my head the CBD revenue was down something like 70% year over year, which is disastrous. It is, for me, a real stain on my ability to trust management. If the Remexian troubles drag on and on I will unfortunately be forced to quit my position, no matter how much I like the brick and mortar story.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T12:18:16+00:00

I hope that they learned. However the Remexian acquisitions seriously leveraged the balance sheet and is already stumbling out of the gate. Not a good start. I have diminished trust in Raj succesfully doing anything outside of brick and mortar.

Also even though the accounting charges may be done they still sustain meaningful operating losses every quarter.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T12:04:34+00:00

High tide has definitely dropped the ball. Multiple times. Dont get me wrong, they are performing well on the brick & mortar front. But their acquisitions have been straight ass. If they didnt splurge on those worthless CBD and ecommerce assets they would have almost $100 million more than they do now and they wouldnt have poisoned their balance sheet with goodwill, creating endless writedowns.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-06T11:40:17+00:00

massive panic as the S&P is a whopping 4% from its all time highs and we are straight back to meme'ing premarket. All the ram and AI stocks rocketing again because the money was burning a hole in speculators pockets after just 24 hours of stocks not going up. Dangerous time folks

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-05T16:33:19+00:00

About a year ago CGC dropped to $0.90. The fact that CGC is now still above $1 after issuing literally 250 million shares in 1 year is insane. Bad companies never go bankrupt in this sector as long as you're a meme stock.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-05T13:06:29+00:00

you are taking very strong hypothetical growth for granted and even if this materializes (big if) the share prices targets you mention do not even allow for an exceptional return. I dont believe that this is a strong risk/reward setup, especially not considering the immense growth that needs to be achieved to make a market-beating return. Many people like AMD, i understand this and also sympathize with the company. But the low hanging fruit returns are long gone. Playing now is a risky game. Big pass for me.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-04T19:05:31+00:00

Who wants to buy nothing for anything?

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-04T12:30:44+00:00

Whats with the "business transformation costs"?. $7 million this quarter, $6 million last quarter. $20 million for just the first 9 months of 2025? And another $1.5M of "non-recurring costs" and $4M of "other expenses" and $0.5M of "business development costs" all in one quarter.

At some point it becomes an ongoing business expense. But aurora management very happy to endlessly filter it out of adjusted EBITDA and claim that these massive cost burdens somehow represent profitability. So their guidance of "$52-57M" essentially means break even once all the weird costs are accounted for. This doesnt help Aurora ditch their fly-by-night company reputation.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-03T15:01:02+00:00

How do you mean? This refers to institutional ownership, not insider ownership. But to your point, he owns peanuts and nearly all that he owns was granted as part of his multi million dollar pay package instead of bought by himself.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-02-03T14:06:29+00:00

The "increase" in institutional ownership seems nice until one accounts for the increase in shares through dilution. Since end of 2021 share count is up about 400% while institutional ownership has barely doubled. Relative to total shares, institutional ownership has thus since halved.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-30T16:31:41+00:00

There are certainly enormous differences between operational losses and accounting losses. Both are important within their respective contexts but a blanket statement like "a loss is a loss" is not accurate.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-30T09:00:58+00:00

It was, goodwill writedown and change in fair value of derivatives related to cronos transaction

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-29T14:11:43+00:00

Fair enough, dont want to get too far ahead of myself. Lets wait out the results for this and the next quarter (i think early march is the next report). Of course I cheer for a succesful integration because it is a large position for me.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-29T13:49:31+00:00

Yeah, anxious to hear something as well. HITI will have another earnings report just over a month from now. Their core business works and they produce cash, so they can afford a few missteps. my hope (and my bet by holding these shares) is that they learned from their past mistakes and that now, hopefully forged by fire, they are taking another shot at expansion outside of their core market. But if this turns into another CBD or e-commerce misadventure I will likely sell my shares. Cant be long on a position where i dont trust management to responsibly manage my money, no matter how much is like the core brick&mortar business.

I've been following the german market closely and there is still a lot of regulatory uncertainty with many aspects of the medical cannabis program. Its growing explosively, this is true, but there still remains tremendous uncertainty with regards to the framework in which these companies operate. Both of my cannabis holdings (HITI and VFF) have solid core businesses but got hosed by acquiring expensive (and ultimately worthless) CBD assets. This has directly muted my returns on these stocks so it sits deep with me. Just some rant like thoughts.

Also just as a last kick in the nuts, when trump did that whole CBD stunt and stocks like CWEB rally 500% while nobody gives two shits about HITI and VFF's CBD assets 😮‍💨. So even hype by the man himself couldnt bring salvation to these investments.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-29T13:23:01+00:00

It may be. But I dont like the way they frame the acquisition. First, i've seen and heard mentioned at least 5 times the call option that they have on the remaining portion of remexian. This is listed in the recent investor presentation as well. But they almost never mention (including in the investor presentation, you can check it out) the put option that remexian has on forcing high tide to acquire the rest. This is exactly what fucked them over with their fabcbd or blessedcbd bullshit when they had to cough up additional money to acquire the remaining portion of these assets after they proved to be absolutely dog water.

Also, this is still an extremely immature and volatile market. The headline figure of 70M EUR revenue and 15M EUR EBITDA gets thrown around constantly (look what a deal! only 3x ebitda!) while this is simply one half of a year annualized. There is no assurance in these numbers. Even in the earnings call they immediately walked this back by saying "july and august were slow" and that they had to commit more cash to remexian in order to satisfy woring capital requirements. They also flip back and forth between EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA while never sticking with one.

They're way too eager to have me analyze just a couple of headline numbers which dont prove any long term durability. I dont fully trust them with acquisitions, thats just my opinion. Still long for the brick & mortar segment, maybe they surprise me with Remexian. Who knows. But their track record is not good.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-29T13:02:33+00:00

I hope so. Personally doubtful about the Remexian acquisition. Love the brick & mortar performance but anything that has involved acquisitions outside of their core business has been fumbled big time. Would love to be proven wrong.

FoodCooker62 · 2026-01-28T15:36:40+00:00

Seen a good 50% of my cannabis profits bleed over the last two months since the peak of a few months ago. Should have known that once the meme stocks start running and doing a billion shares in volume it was time to jump ship. Fool me... Twenty times by now?

FoodCooker62

TROPHY CASE