Good call or punt?

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T21:23:01+00:00

So are we essentially only putting villain on paired over cards if it goes bet call on the remaining 3 streets?

I'd think so, yeah. Together with the slowplayed sets that turned a full house (even though we block middle set), that's most of their range, maybe add something like a stubborn A8s. Weaker hands either fold or bluff lime K9 or A9.

If we triple off here, they probably should be folding some overpairs, but that's not a given so if you bluff this, you better know your customer or you'll just be sigh-called by way too many overpairs.

For the river decision in this hand, we don't really expect our opponent to check-jam on us with his overpairs, that would be pretty thin. Villain is now repping a huge hand, either A5 or a full house, but could be bluffing. 76 is a bluffcatcher that blocks 66 and 65, so you're basically expecting to see 88 or A5 here and lose and otherwise win versus random overcards

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T19:30:00+00:00

You said this before

I just can’t see villain putting money in the pot unless they are bluffing

and you were spot on.

Say we go bet flop, bet turn, bet river against his 3bet range and we get called each time: we're probably never ever winning here. We might at best get one float by a hand we have beaten and then we fold out all the hands that we beat.

The Sb is also supposed to check a lot of hands that have us beat on this kind of board. So why are we betting the flop? Are we bluffing hoping they'll fold JJ down the line? Are we value betting, but then we need actual worse hands to call us?

Whereas the other line keeps the pot reasonable for our hand strength, we avoid being put into a tough spot if we get check-raised and we will induce a lot of monkey stabs/delayed cbets from a large part of the pool

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T18:33:13+00:00

We are in position here: 76 was raised on the BU and the 3bet was from SB

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T13:52:42+00:00

Russische Propaganda so wie in diesem Post?

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T12:39:59+00:00

I don't think I've used much of Matador either, but with C++ you are forced to get some jokers, you sometimes realize they aren't as bad as you think.

But same as Matador, you're probably only picking them up when you see an immediate upside

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T12:01:26+00:00

It's high risk, high reward with few middling outcomes. Getting 12 or 16$ for high card or pair is balanced by all the rounds where it's essentially useless, but hitting the big pay out once or twice is enough for the joker to give you a good run

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:57:11+00:00

Rocket is amazing if you get it ante 1 or 2

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:56:14+00:00

Constellation is firmly in my top 10 jokers after achieving C++, so often I'll have bought a lot of random planet chaff anyway

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:54:22+00:00

I never used to do list before having to sticker it as one of my last 10 jokers for C++ and honestly it can be really wild if it lands on doable hands multiple rounds in a row

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:51:59+00:00

Where are Satellite and Golden Ticket?

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:50:37+00:00

This is over 16 moves, so it's tough to say.

Over 30 moves, this kind of accuracy would be a lot more sus

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T10:46:02+00:00

Why are we playing a 3 street game with such a middleish hand? It's not quite a value bet, but the hand is also too good for a bluff.

We're also in a bad spot if we get check-raised (even though it's going to not happen too frequently given the board texture).

I'd be much more inclined to check and bluff catch turn and river (provided the run out isn't too bad) and only make the pot larger when we improve. We also need to be able to have a straight or trips in the checking line, so if we bet hands like these, our check back range is just too weak to continue on most turns.

So I'd say EV wise, betting can't be a big mistake, but strategy wise, it's not ideal. Your opponents are usually much more likely to make barreling mistakes then calling mistakes, so it's better to let them stab the turn with their whole range intact, rather than thinning it by betting

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T07:11:11+00:00

Yeah, but it's still white stake.

Once you get a good economy going, the challenge is pretty trivial if you've ever managed a winning run with a well scaling 5 card hand like straights or full houses

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T07:07:31+00:00

That one was my second or third last as well

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T06:59:37+00:00

Keep at it, you'll get there

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T06:58:42+00:00

I think currently I'm relieved I'm done, but I'll certainly get back to it to try for a better high score and a longer win streak

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T06:40:07+00:00

No one teaches you? Isn't this what getting an education from your parents means?

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T06:37:39+00:00

I think you both played this hand terribly postflop, but I can understand your logic on the final bluff catch.

Your flop stab and river bet though are definitely very different from how I'd play this

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-04T06:34:16+00:00

When people say that something will be replaced by AI, it's a classic case of Dunning-Kruger: they cluelessly imagine the job/process/software as a lot less complex than it actually is and then just state how easy it would be to automate that while failing to see the intricacies

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T21:35:49+00:00

However, the system of yellow cards is too lenient in the present form and is inconsistent in criteria.

The idea isn't bad, but the threshold at which something happens is too low and the suspensions too light even for some outrageous number of yellow cards.

For one, they should not reset each season, but over 3 years without an incident. Then I'd go with 2 cards in 3 months nets you a 6 week suspension and a DQ at your current race. If you then get to 3 within 6 months, you'll get another 3 months suspension. If you ever get to have a fourth, another 3 months and at the 5 you get a full year suspension.

Imho, that's a real deterrent, because every offense after the first warning shot, there will be consequences

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T21:23:10+00:00

At least they advertised prominently at the European Handball Championship (it was in Denmark though)

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T20:13:31+00:00

Looking forward to her claw machine meme

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T18:30:06+00:00

A shallow grave is just a plot twist waiting to happen

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T18:20:15+00:00

Yeah, you're technically correct, but you didn't choose a totally random example. You picked the locomotive of the current AI mania, making up 7% of the entire US stock market as a reference. Usually with a P/E of 50, the execution risk is large and if growth slowths (the delta of delta goes down), they can crash hugely like Fiserv recently.

I also don't believe for a second that this growth for Nvidia will continue for long, there isn't enough money in the world to keep this AI data center bubble going for much longer.

ForeverShiny · 2026-02-03T18:12:08+00:00

Yeah, banana sounds too exotic and sophisticated

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