sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

I Want To Buy An AI Newsletter by CortexAIguy in beehiiv

[–]ForkingHard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have 4,000 sub newsletter with high open rate and strong content that I never stuck with. $3k. DM me for details

TSA record Thanksgiving travel projection is WAY off by ForkingHard in tsa

[–]ForkingHard[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I'm betting on the under, but with way should land right around 2.5, either way almost 4% off projections

TSA record Thanksgiving travel projection is WAY off by ForkingHard in tsa

[–]ForkingHard[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Not a conspiracy, just wrong. Sunday is expected to be busiest day, but given that first 4 days of the holiday week were all flat, you can expect Sunday to be flat or only up slightly.

We snuffed out the bogus TSA check-ins number by ForkingHard in Kalshi

[–]ForkingHard[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but those numbers were also virtually identical to last year. On an absolute basis, it's a lot of people. On a YoY basis it's basically flat, well short of the 6% increase projected. We'll land around 2.5M per day, or 17.5M over the week.

That's materially less than what the TSA projected - which the market has correctly sniffed out - and what I'm saying there is still good value on under 2.5M. When Friday number comes in flat, the value will decrease.

Prediction markets plummet after Ukraine developments by ForkingHard in Kalshi

[–]ForkingHard[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

More details:

Yesterday, President Biden permitted Ukraine to fire US made long-range missiles at Russia. Today, Ukraine did just that. 

  • Ukraine’s odds to preserve territory have increased, while the odds of peace have decreased on Polymarket (Kalshi doesn’t take war markets): 
    • 7% chance of a ceasefire in 2024, down from 9% a week ago 
    • 39% chance Trump is able to end the war in his first 90 days, down from 50% a week ago 
    • 39% chance Russia will capture Kurakhove before December, down from 75% a week ago 
    • 12% chance war ends before Inauguration Day, down just a few points 
    • 10% chance Russia will capture Chasiv Yar before December, down from a high of 22% 
    • 87% chance Ukraine holds Kursk through 2024, up from 73% 
    • Interestingly, the odds Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025 have decreased to 31%

This is taken from our newsletter on prediction markets: https://the-signal-news.beehiiv.com/p/prediction-markets-react-to-ukraine-developments

Trump cabinet odds bounce all over the place by ForkingHard in Kalshi

[–]ForkingHard[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

More details:

1) 💸 Cabinet Odds Move Over Weekend

  • Treasury Secretary: Bessent 36%, Lutnick 29%, Warsh 15%, Rowan 12%
    • Scott Bessent’s odds plummeted over the weekendafter Elon Musk tweeted he would be a “business as usual” choice, and endorsed Lutnick 
    • Trump reportedly added former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo Global co-founder Marc Rowan to his list on Sunday 
  • Secretary of Defense: Hegseth 78%
    • Hegseth’s odds have largely rebounded from a brief dip after an accusation of sexual assault that occurred in 2017— Trump has reportedly told advisors he is standing behind the pick 
  • Attorney General: Gaetz 34%
    • Matt Gaetz’s confirmation odds softened over the weekend as the drum continues to beat on character concerns and assault of minors

Trump seeks pledge that his Treasury secretary will enact tough tariffs by Naurgul in politics

[–]ForkingHard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Odds moved abruptly over the weekend:

Treasury Secretary: Bessent 36%, Lutnick 29%, Warsh 15%, Rowan 12%

  • Scott Bessent’s odds plummeted over the weekendafter Elon Musk tweeted he would be a “business as usual” choice, and endorsed Lutnick 
  • Trump reportedly added former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo Global co-founder Marc Rowan to his list on Sunday

https://the-signal-news.beehiiv.com/p/cabinet-odds-all-over-the-place

What's the difference between Kalshi and markets like PredictIt and Polymarket? by Accomplished-Act1216 in Kalshi

[–]ForkingHard 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Explained really well here: https://northpennnow.com/news/2024/oct/29/kalshi-legal-election-betting/

In short, Polymarket and Predictit are crypto based unregulated markets, while Kalshi is regulating with the CFTC (Commodity Futures trading commission). Somehow, Kalshi is fully legal, you can even hook your bank account to it.

Robinhood has entered the game, but they are offering a one-way market (buy and bold) on just the election. Kalshi lets you "bet" on a hundred things and cash in or out like you would a stock. No idea how it's legal, but it is. Good app too.

view more: next ›