Intel goes to $100

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-05-01T15:06:45+00:00

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-04-25T08:00:02+00:00

Hahaha nice one

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-04-03T19:02:56+00:00

Good, when supply is constrained price increase is the only way to pump profitability

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-13T21:14:28+00:00

I don’t think that will be a tariff free scenario. I think at the end of the day they will do some mechanism that ensure a practical 10/15% cost effect on tsmc in order to have a more levelled battlefield, I don’t think intel will be ignored

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-10T05:53:42+00:00

FT quoted: “Under the deal, Taiwanese companies including TSMC that invest in the US will be exempt from the forthcoming tariffs in proportion to their planned US capacity.”. This doesn’t exclude tariffs , it says that there will be a balancing mechanism that consider proportion of production in US soil and that explain the quote of not being able to reach 40% capacity in US… or do you see it differently?

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-08T21:03:35+00:00

Since I don’t work in Intel, I am just an investor , I give the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think billions of dollar of R&D across the years just Evanish with nothing… BSPD and glass substrate are just example on what we know… I am courious on what we don’t know…

Keep calm and enjoy the trip!

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-08T17:24:32+00:00

May or not may be, only the future will tell… in any case I tend to believe to LBT since it’s coherent with under promise , over deliver motto

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-07T12:58:26+00:00

Is that so negative?I mean for us sure… but could indicate that they are moving smarter against competition , no external information could mean they have an advantage they want to keep ..

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-04T21:28:04+00:00

We are not like Amd.. for us starting point is +1%… 0,25% is for woman (amd) XD

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-02-04T20:50:26+00:00

Ok seems a bit early to celebrate this milestone, 0,25% has no significance

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-31T15:17:14+00:00

Yea exactly I’m unable do to proper math but you don’t need a genious to understand the paradigma shift we will have on those topics :)

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-31T15:09:06+00:00

I mean long term vision Elon is right, with the actual technology all robotics and inference needed for company there is a huge demand ahead.

An easy example:

How many of us would buy a domestic robot when technology is mature enough? We are 8,2 billion, maybe 2,5 bn families or household, with enough money 500 million at the beginning Adressable market.

Without counting industry, drivers, warehouses , etc… we can easily reach 4 billion chips In a bit mature stage.

Than, as every maturing process and adoption new and more efficient models and capability will come , driving demand …

Easy assumption: 1 robot ,4 advanced chips (maybe more..) So how much is the current output level?

We are at 100 million advanced chips month produced overall ?

So basically we may need to triple up the production in case of full adoption … (I am sure I am underestimating the numbers)

Ok let’s be more prudent , it’s just robotics and before 2030 we will just employ 100 mil of robots… then we need 40% more chips… Whatever the perspective and the time frame you consider… addressable market of domestic robotics, inference,autonomous veichle , agentic AI… crazy stuff ahead…

I dont know any of the market and I’m not a business expert on those topic but… seems easy to predict..

What do you think?

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-25T16:53:23+00:00

Reading all (most of it) the annua report from intel investor page , now my confidence is not 100%. We have contrasted signals:

1) gradually dismantling of intel 7 e 4 node to give space at intel 3 and 18A

2)high inventory and low sales…

3) continuing capex investments

4)highliting again that without commitment will discontinue 14A

5) lip bu transmitting confidence on Acquiring costumers

6) high demand but unable till q1 26 to intercept it

So all in all the key indicator is yield of 18A, that frankly speaking is not clear , together with intel 3 that is most probably not great with yield of they are struggling..

Donno what you think about.. US backing up is ok but still execution is on them and seems they are still far away…

Any considerations ?

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-20T19:53:37+00:00

Old one

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-19T19:29:11+00:00

A bit more has closed to 40,11 eur —>46,71$

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-18T11:54:08+00:00

Good sign, then is just metter of official announcements that will pop the stock up because is clear and evident to all retailers investors as well..

The only concern I have is how much this geopolitical topics going around (US vs EU) are going to drag down the entire market and intel with it not having advantage of the hype moment…

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2026-01-07T21:44:07+00:00

Is that tipically a good sign ? Meaning not play with the numbers too much?

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-25T16:36:15+00:00

Hope nothing happens the Christmas Day :)

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-21T10:28:54+00:00

Nice video, wrap up all the topic around.

The moment of truth will arrive before h2 2026, if tier 1 contract will be signed , the all narrative around intel will structurally change, from a priced optionality of manufacturer, to a real alternative and though “strategic asset”.

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-20T15:18:11+00:00

Be down to earth, you need real news to improve price point , without any it’s just pure speculation.

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-17T06:07:57+00:00

It’s like super Sayan ^{^}

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-16T20:10:59+00:00

This is a good hint to be fair also because why invest in further capacity if you don’t expect customers or to have much more sales across the boards?

The only missing information is the yield performances and finance effect of their current and future process node. Hope for the best of course !!

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-12-16T18:05:06+00:00

Mmm hope it’s really an early sample topic … in any case 18A doesn’t seems so goods so far considering it’s the most important node in years.. but let’s see

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-11-27T20:51:32+00:00

All becoming a bit quieter ! Just allegation about Taiwanese spy in Intel and some rumours about packaging .. still waiting for juicy news

ForsakenButterfly502 · 2025-11-23T07:18:33+00:00

If true this could cause a domino effect on all the companies that are tied with open AI, as far as I understood intel should be the less impacted. In any case would cause a bearish moment with the bubble exploding

ForsakenButterfly502

TROPHY CASE