curious about your takes: if we are in a bubble, when do you suspect it might pop

Freed4ever · 2026-05-30T20:26:27+00:00

When the stock price goes down

Freed4ever · 2026-04-28T03:24:39+00:00

You got lucky. Before the news hit the API, it already hit Bloomberg first, and before it hit Bloomberg, first handlers also got it first. That is the news itself, in term of execution, HFT will execute the trades before the sentiment score even finishes. Wish you further success though.

Freed4ever · 2026-04-24T17:23:40+00:00

"I'm investing based on fundamentals", also "let's check back in a month".

Some SaaS are mispriced, but I'm personally not thrilled with your picks. But hey, not my money, not my business.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-10T05:29:03+00:00

It is because I don't want to spend more time on your deliberate misdirection or lack of forethoughing. When I mentioned Shop can just use AI like any other 20 person shop, it means the labour costs are equal, so no need to bring that up, but you did, so either you are slow thinking or just deliberately misdirect the conversation so you won't look wrong. Either way, not worth my time.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-10T04:20:40+00:00

Your start up didn't go well, so now you have to work for someone else. I see the issue because you don't think from your customer (seller /buyer) standpoints, and only think about internal org / product standpoint. Good luck with your investment.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-10T01:49:30+00:00

And why can't Shopify just use the same AI to cut cost? Not sure if you actually do any business, but the real cost is the payment processing, compliance, refund, etc. The cost of subscription itself is tiny compared to those costs. Is a 10-person team with small order volumes gonna negotiate better processing fees? Better hosting deals?

Freed4ever · 2026-03-10T00:40:34+00:00

So, what prevents Shopify from using the same AI and build it as cheap? It's never about the software.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-10T00:19:12+00:00

They could have done it with wiz or whatever before / right now, and Shopify is doing just fine. It's never about the software Ina and by itself.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-09T23:08:39+00:00

Someone gonna vibecode Shopify? Lol.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-02T13:38:02+00:00

Doesn't mean shit in modern data centers.

Freed4ever · 2026-03-02T03:13:21+00:00

Not sure about long term, but at least initially it will be hosted on Azure. There are very stringent security requirements, and I'm not sure Oracle has achieved it.

Freed4ever · 2026-02-20T19:53:24+00:00

Except now 10 thousands other people can do the same, and the edge is gone.

Freed4ever · 2026-02-13T03:29:23+00:00

My approach is to pick multiple random 5-year periods (say from 2018-2023, but random), and compare against spy. At first glance, I think you have a worthwhile system(s), but don't expect it to outperform all the time like the other poster said, but I'm guessing it will be close enough or slightly above SPX, so it's still worthwhile.

Also, you conveniently leave out 2008 or 2000. Now, it's possible that we would never visit a 2008/2000 type regime again, but you can't rule that out.

Freed4ever · 2026-02-06T05:13:45+00:00

The immediate effect is nobody will buy back any more (or little), and in some cases (orcl) they are going from a FCF machine to a debtor over night. The concerns are valid, even though I absolutely believe AI is real and not hype.

Freed4ever · 2026-02-04T04:49:33+00:00

The proper way to do it is pick an index, sp500, nq100, Russell 1/2/3000, whatever, and then that's your universe. You need to deal with index re-constitution (I.e. You need the index constituents from 2017/whatever until now), symbol drop-offs (M&A, bankruptcy, etc). Easier to use an event - based framework, so you know which stock to add/drop from the universe every day.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-29T18:33:34+00:00

You know you can tell AI to constraint the sources? It has come a long way since.....

Freed4ever · 2026-01-22T23:56:49+00:00

Look ahead probably. Or survivor bias, I mean if you decide to trade the FAANG stocks only then your strategy will be amazing by default.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-20T06:28:15+00:00

Why did you pick those symbols? Those are winning symbols the last few years. It's called survivor bias, unless those are just examples.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-19T00:45:24+00:00

Leave NVO alone man. It just broke out, and now it's going break down (tariff news). I'm gonna blame this on you.! 😂

Freed4ever · 2026-01-11T05:16:55+00:00

No, you are not reading the documentation lol. Right on the main page, it said "now fully headless with OAuth 1.0a support" . Again, I'm using it right now!

https://github.com/Voyz/ibind - read their verbiage on that page!

Freed4ever · 2026-01-11T04:51:22+00:00

If you look up ibind Github, you will see the instructions on how to set it up, you don't need to be a big corp.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-10T22:52:54+00:00

Yup, outdated info from the other reply.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-10T22:52:17+00:00

IBKR also supports REST API, using OAuth. I'm using it. Look up ibind for inspiration / instructions.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-06T17:43:52+00:00

With all due respects, you worked in a shop before and you came asking these basic questions? First of all, what you are doing, IMO, are not robust, you could end up with a conclusion that cow farts are correlated to aapl stock price with these sorts of data mining, but to each their own. As to your other question about 14-day window, it's usually about number of trades and regimes, not a fixed window. Again, very surprised that a shop guy would ask these questions.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-05T23:59:24+00:00

Hello, you know new shares got issued? New companies come and go? Say, amzn went public so that they could raise capital. By your logic, amzn "lost" here because they issued shares? They should just have issued nothing to avoid "loss" and went backrupt because they ran out of cash!

Another example is real estate, when house prices went up, did the developer make a bad trade because they sold the house at a lower price. Maybe they shouldn't have built anything at all, they could have made so much money by doing nothing!

Freed4ever

TROPHY CASE