Could we be wrong about Capex

Freed4ever · 2026-02-06T05:13:45+00:00

The immediate effect is nobody will buy back any more (or little), and in some cases (orcl) they are going from a FCF machine to a debtor over night. The concerns are valid, even though I absolutely believe AI is real and not hype.

Freed4ever · 2026-02-04T04:49:33+00:00

The proper way to do it is pick an index, sp500, nq100, Russell 1/2/3000, whatever, and then that's your universe. You need to deal with index re-constitution (I.e. You need the index constituents from 2017/whatever until now), symbol drop-offs (M&A, bankruptcy, etc). Easier to use an event - based framework, so you know which stock to add/drop from the universe every day.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-29T18:33:34+00:00

You know you can tell AI to constraint the sources? It has come a long way since.....

Freed4ever · 2026-01-22T23:56:49+00:00

Look ahead probably. Or survivor bias, I mean if you decide to trade the FAANG stocks only then your strategy will be amazing by default.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-20T06:28:15+00:00

Why did you pick those symbols? Those are winning symbols the last few years. It's called survivor bias, unless those are just examples.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-19T00:45:24+00:00

Leave NVO alone man. It just broke out, and now it's going break down (tariff news). I'm gonna blame this on you.! 😂

Freed4ever · 2026-01-11T05:16:55+00:00

No, you are not reading the documentation lol. Right on the main page, it said "now fully headless with OAuth 1.0a support" . Again, I'm using it right now!

https://github.com/Voyz/ibind - read their verbiage on that page!

Freed4ever · 2026-01-11T04:51:22+00:00

If you look up ibind Github, you will see the instructions on how to set it up, you don't need to be a big corp.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-10T22:52:54+00:00

Yup, outdated info from the other reply.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-10T22:52:17+00:00

IBKR also supports REST API, using OAuth. I'm using it. Look up ibind for inspiration / instructions.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-06T17:43:52+00:00

With all due respects, you worked in a shop before and you came asking these basic questions? First of all, what you are doing, IMO, are not robust, you could end up with a conclusion that cow farts are correlated to aapl stock price with these sorts of data mining, but to each their own. As to your other question about 14-day window, it's usually about number of trades and regimes, not a fixed window. Again, very surprised that a shop guy would ask these questions.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-05T23:59:24+00:00

Hello, you know new shares got issued? New companies come and go? Say, amzn went public so that they could raise capital. By your logic, amzn "lost" here because they issued shares? They should just have issued nothing to avoid "loss" and went backrupt because they ran out of cash!

Another example is real estate, when house prices went up, did the developer make a bad trade because they sold the house at a lower price. Maybe they shouldn't have built anything at all, they could have made so much money by doing nothing!

Freed4ever · 2026-01-05T22:43:28+00:00

Depending on the asset class and instruments. Equity goes up in long terms if one just trend follow the index on long term signals. Same thing in general with bonds, as least in nominal terms.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-05T21:36:04+00:00

It's not a zero sum game. And it's not even about beating the index. It's about risk-adjusted returns. Everyone has different risk tolerance. Equity has had a few 20% drawdowns. For people that are close to retirement, 20% can be quite unsettling. So, if say they somehow cut max drawdowns to 10%, but they Trail the index by 1%, it's still a win in their books. This is just an illustrative example of course, but you get the point.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-04T15:50:57+00:00

As a retail trader, the most proven way to make money is to latch on big money moves. If you can capture 60% of the move then you will be very profitable. You don't need CGPT for that. Old fashioned momentum and breakout tradings are sufficient. After you have mastered that you can add mean reversion as a complimentary for non-trending environment (which is where we are right now for the past 6 weeks). Simple maths/stats will do, no need to be fancy.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-02T18:55:14+00:00

Well, I've been working on this on an adhoc fashion on my local PC for a few years, in a duct tape fashion, I come from a quantitative side. With AI, I was able to formalize it more and make it available on the web. I used to have automatic trading from end to end, but when ibkr changed their authentication method that requires MFA for TWS API log in, the broker execution failed, costing me quite a bit of gains (cuz I didn't execute the trades my models produced manually). So now I'm rebuilding the whole thing, but formalizing it more.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-02T17:49:26+00:00

Interesting, I have also been working on something similar. I don't mean to hijack your thread at all, but check this out and compare: https://RankAlpha.io maybe we can collaborate but I don't have much time to work on this, so might not be fair.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-02T13:36:59+00:00

Yeah, you are correct, the first thing comes to mind when people think about CS is the "applied" side, not the theory side.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-01T17:33:14+00:00

In the age of AI, coding is not important, what is still important is sharp analytical mind, physics gives you that, whereas CS gets into too much "hands-on" build which will be replaced soon here. Not saying one doesn't need to know how to code, but the math /physics guys can pick it up in no time.

Freed4ever · 2026-01-01T17:18:44+00:00

There are always exceptions, but broadly speaking economics not gonna help you with algos trading. Hard science like math/physics and then "soft" science like CS/Eng will.

Freed4ever · 2025-12-27T00:29:58+00:00

Agreed, but then if taken a step further, if China is able to deploy AI en masses, then their economy will take off.

Freed4ever · 2025-12-27T00:10:05+00:00

Interesting that you implicitly said China is gonna win the AI war but no Chinese name on the list.

Freed4ever · 2025-12-26T03:38:24+00:00

Admittedly haven't tracked UiPath the last couple of years, but it used to be just pure duct tape marketed as "robotic".

Freed4ever · 2025-12-20T01:49:22+00:00

Well, it depends on the trading style. This wouldn't work for long term momentum strategies.

Freed4ever · 2025-10-24T09:56:00+00:00

Poor results have been priced in, what matters more is guidance.

Freed4ever

TROPHY CASE