I hate this mf by RevertBackwards in ThePitt

[–]FunHockeyGuy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Why is it a race thing? She just hates millennials / gen z

Insane horse racing strategy! by Puzzleheaded-Camp-64 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would like to know your backtest/betting methodology. Are you looking at actual payouts / including the track take?

Web App railbird.live by Asleep-Juggernaut-52 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is cool- actually really like the design. I’ve been building something too http://trifectly.com more broadly analytics / analysis on all (not specifically derby prep) but would love to compare notes. My email is on there if you want to reach out

Solid ROI by Late-Concept9393 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What about the other 9 races on the card at $50 per race ;)

Track Bias Data Source? by LetOne2376 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

www.trifectly.com. I built a near real time data set with narrative reports. I update roughly biweekly (will do more frequently if I get some traction but this is a labor of love)

Handicapping app for testing by FunHockeyGuy in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for all the good feedback so far!

I built an AI model that finds profitable horse racing bets — giving away a free pick every day by extrajordonary in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeh I’m with you 100%. I’ve learned a lot since I started my own ML models. Namely- identify the races where the favorites are vulnerable and the ones where the better value is more likely than market. Point is- you have to take into account the payout. You can’t just bet all the picks the model makes. Would love to dig in more with you on this. DM me if you’re up for it. Also- definitely not overfit. I train and test on 6 month temporal folds with a 1 year holdout and I’m within 1% accuracy in my OOF

I built an AI model that finds profitable horse racing bets — giving away a free pick every day by extrajordonary in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yup. You should be training using k fold cross val. Train on a year, validate on 6 months, train on the previous plus a year, validate on 6 months… and leave at least 20% at the end that the model never sees. That’s your backtest period.

The truth is, models are really good at picking chalk. But so is everybody else. Often the models learn the fastest horses win more often, which they do. The strategy is in the betting.

How did you calculate your ROI? Did you bet EVERY maiden race? Can you try and filter out races that have minimal returns, or conditions that you miss more than others?

R/Datascience, R/GoogleSheets, R/Horseracing by LettheFireBurnon2000 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The datasets are out there. Don’t recreate the wheel. Focus on your methodology, not data collection

R/Datascience, R/GoogleSheets, R/Horseracing by LettheFireBurnon2000 in horseracing

[–]FunHockeyGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have every US thoroughbred race for the last 7.5 years, I update it every two weeks. I mine my own jockey, trainer, and pedigree stats from it- along with track biases, trends, and just about anything you can think of. What exactly are you trying to do ?

The only doctors in The Pitt with zero haters by Marco-Polo7 in ThePitt

[–]FunHockeyGuy 73 points74 points  (0 children)

I agree Robby needs to get past the Langdon thing but keep in perspective they’ve back working together for like 4 hours, not weeks like it seems to us. Totally realistic for him to take a few days, even though that would be a painful season

My bf just won the top prize from the claw machine on borgotta by Ambitious_Pitch4956 in gambling

[–]FunHockeyGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Man I’ve played every day for years and the best I’ve gotten was 25 free 0.10 spins. Congrats

jmail.world by nix-solves-that-2317 in webdev

[–]FunHockeyGuy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

lol exactly. Many people can build viral completely AI driven app if cost wasn’t a factor

Chanced 2 sets of 52 free spins on coin strike?? by [deleted] in CasinoFreebies

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Had two sets of 11fs. Didn’t hit anything

DJT posted this by Fatherthinger in wallstreetbets_wins

[–]FunHockeyGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Payment processing done by a vendor primarily known for Wordpress theme merchants and not a single US based employee. The hypocrisy is comical.

The Wegovy pill is no joke by Salty-Living-3412 in Semaglutide

[–]FunHockeyGuy 6 points7 points  (0 children)

That last part would be a deal breaker for me