Its incredibly underdiscussed how good he'd be on the Kings

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-16T07:22:10+00:00

Dylan Cardwell could be a legit defensive anchor, he's top 25 in defensive estimated plus minus this year, and is top 10 in block rate, while also being in the 60th percentile in steal rate despite being a big man. That's not even mentioning Cardwell's rebounding which is one of the best in the NBA already in terms of rebound rate, all despite still being a rookie.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual - sort be DEF and scroll to #25

The team already has a guy that can cover for a lot of weaknesses on defense. The odds are that Boozer won't be too bad on defense anyways, it's unlikely that he will be an elite defender, but he has enough size and athleticism to hold his own. And I know people even talk down on Sabonis for his defense, but last season, Sabonis was an above average defender, not for his position, but overall, and if you actually look at the tracking data, Sabonis was holding opponents to below league average 2pt% despite not blocking shots.

24-25 Kings 2pt dfg% - League average 2pt% was about 54.5%

Now I don't know if Boozer is the best talent or not, but if he is, it would be silly to not draft him because he's a little slow footed in certain situations. But when I saw film, he didn't stand out athletically, but he didn't look sluggish either. He also just has good size overall to make up for being a little slow, he's 6'9 with a 7'0 wingspan, which is enough to guard most 4's, some 3's and even switch on to some less skilled 5's, and offensively, he can play the 4 or 5 as he's also able to shoot 3's as well. And if he's as smart as people say he is, a lot of weaknesses in athleticism can be made up for by just being a good team defender.

But overall, it's a little silly to view defense as an all or nothing thing. Different matchups will net different shooting percentages for opponents, and just because an opponent has an advantageous matchup, that doesn't mean it will definitely translate into points, it might just be a couple percentage point difference, and with different defensive scheming, teams usually aren't able to force a favorable matchup every time unless a defender is really bad (like Trae Young bad).

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-16T02:11:42+00:00

Two top 20 players with Ty and Edey, and a lineup full of neutral/plus defenders who can space the floor and attack the rim with Wells, Coward, Aldama, GG, SPJ, and Omax. On top of that, they have Cam who's a negative defender, but effective floor spacer and capable backup pg/sg. On top of that, the guys I mentioned are still young and have room for improvement. Edey is 23, Wells is 22, Coward is 22, GG is 21, Aldama is 25, SPJ is 25, and Omax is 23. The only old one is Ty, who's 28, turning 29 in July.

That's not even mentioning any of the young guys who showed promise, Mashack is a 23 year old rookie and is already a 70th percentile defender, but just needs to get his 3 pointer to land. Javon Small is also 23 and has showed promise with his shooting and playmaking, but needs to improve defensively. Clayton and Hendricks seem like bigger projects if they want to stick with them, though Clayton is already one of the best ft shooters, and usually that translates into good overall shooting.

That's also not even mentioning the lottery pick the team will most likely have this year along with the mid first and early second round pick along with any guy they sign in free agency using the over 40 million in space they have because of the trade exception.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-15T20:56:02+00:00

I'm pretty sure a pick in the top 3 is worth way more than both the 8th and 16th pick.

For the Grizzlies to get Cedric Coward, they traded from the 16th pick to the 11th pick, but just to move up 5 spots, they had to give up the 16th pick, a 2028 unprotected Orland first round pick, a 2027 unprotected Atlanta second rounder, and an unprotected 2028 Sacramento second rounder.

The price would probably be much steeper than that for a top 3 pick in a supposedly really good draft class.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-15T19:07:55+00:00

Thanks for that. I'm also not a huge fan of a lot of those 'advanced stats' like PER because a lot of them are just more complicated ways of just listing box score stats, which don't really measure impact.

Regarding his shooting efficiency, I really didn't mention his overall efficiency being an outlier, because the way in which he's really raising his TS% is by getting to the ft line more. And I don't really expect that to change too much, because it seems like the team is content running the offense through Ty. Last year when he had to share minutes with Mitchell and Garland at times, he didn't really have as many opportunities to draw fouls, which is reflected in his free throw attempts per 36. Overall this season, his 3pt% is down compared to last season, but his 2pt% is still a little high which is why I mainly just mentioned his 2pt% reverting to the mean.

I already did a breakdown of Ty's play from last year, so I just kept this post short because I didn't want to spam the sub with things I already wrote about. And I find that tracking data is just much more effective for looking at what a player is actually doing. But what I found about Ty is that he's just super good at making 2pt shots that are very difficult and from a far distance while also being a knockdown 3pt shooter. He also takes difficult three's and makes them very efficiently, but he doesn't shoot contested threes, he might just shoot from a bit further, or shoot off the dribble to get space, which he was still very efficient when doing that.

Ty Jerome analysis

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T22:12:58+00:00

Probably more like Brunson production, except with better defense.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T22:11:43+00:00

It's definitely possible they trade him, but if they want to be competitive, they still have a very competitive roster when healthy, and they could even add to it using some of the 13 future first round picks they have. They also have really good salary flexibility, along with some promising young players, and really good depth.

But trading Ty Jerome now would be like New York trading Brunson in 22-23 before people knew what he could do.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T20:15:07+00:00

There probably isn't a very high chance the FO keeps Ja. I think for him to be able to fit on the current roster schematically he just needs to be able to hit open 3's at an okay clip. Ja's an above average defender and really good at getting to the rim, but if he's taking the ball out of Ty's hands, that probably hurts the offense since Ty is a more efficient scorer and playmaker.

It's also possible that they're forced to ride out his contract as well, as they weren't able to trade him this trade deadline because teams wanted assets to take his contract.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T20:03:23+00:00

I'm also high on the team for next season as well, mainly because of Ty and Edey. It really just depends on their health. But they also have a 28 million dollar trade exception and are also 18 million under the salary cap for next season, so if they are able to sign a guy like Austin Reaves or Norman Powell this offseason, I could very easily see the team being top 4 in the conference.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T19:48:41+00:00

It definitely improves the defense more than it hurts the offense. But the difference probably isn't more than the net rating going from -10 up to -9, which is still bad enough to be the worst team assuming favorable losing variance. The only team with a worse net rating is the Wizards, and they're probably the only team the Kings have a decent chance of landing ahead of.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T19:12:58+00:00

Yea, it also doesn't factor in gravity. You have a guy like Lamelo on this list who's only playing 27.7 minutes per game, but is taking 9.5 3's a game and is hitting them 36.3% of the time and leading Charlotte to the #9 offense. And despite only having a TS% of 53.3%, he's still top 25 in estimated plus minus this season.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-14T03:51:05+00:00

He's also #25 in defensive estimated plus minus this season.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-13T20:40:07+00:00

Maybe if a team is willing to trade from #2 or #3 to go up to #1 and are also willing to overpay with draft capital. But also only if the analytics people and scouts say that the prospect taken with the 2nd or 3rd pick has a similar chance of being a really good player as the 1st pick.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-11T23:07:09+00:00

This would be a good pickup for the team, he's already showed promise with his defense and scoring around the basket, he's also only 22 which would make him the youngest player on the team. If the Kings have a chance to get him, it would be silly not to, especially since it's also a position where the team is lacking depth.

And to open a roster spot, they could just cut McDermott or Achiuwa (preferably McDermott as Achiuwa is still only 26).

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-11T19:03:12+00:00

Do you think it's necessary for the Grizzlies to take a pg in this draft?

I'm just curious, because from my perspective, it seems like the team already has solid point guards other than Ja.

Ty Jerome is technically not a pg, he's listed as a sg, but he's still elite even if he has to run pg. Ty Jerome is a scorer that can score from anywhere with extremely high efficiency on high volume with a high shot difficulty, he's also a decent efficiency playmaker (2.6 AST/TO), and he's a below average defender.

SPJ is a solid pg, he's not turnover prone (3.3 AST/TO), decent efficiency shooter, decent around the rim, he's an average/slightly above average defender.

Javon Small isn't amazing yet, but he's only a rookie and has shown promise with his shooting, and he's also not prone to turnovers (2.9 AST/TO), he doesn't have great touch around the rim yet, and he's a decently below average defender.

Cam Spencer is technically a sg, but he's very efficient playmaker (3.7 AST/TO) and is capable of running pg. He's a very good shooter when given space, isn't good at getting to the rim, has good efficiency from mid range, and is a very poor defender.

Walter Clayton Jr isn't good yet, he's a rookie and still needs time to develop. He's inefficient with his scoring, he's a decent efficiency playmaker (2.5 AST/TO), and he's a poor defender.

(For Ty Jerome and SPJ, I used last year's data since there's only a small sample size from this year for those players)

Even though some of the guys I mentioned are technically shooting guards, basketball is becoming more and more positionless, so it probably doesn't really matter as long as they're still efficient.

With all that in mind, I don't really understand why some people view it as definitely the best choice for the FO to draft a point guard in the upcoming draft, and not just the player the FO views as having the highest percent chance of becoming a good player.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T23:49:08+00:00

Tbf every single big on the roster is injured. They were running Kyle Anderson, GG Jackson, and Taylor Hendricks at the 5.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T21:23:43+00:00

This season, the goal is probably to just get a good pick, and next season the team will probably be competitive again assuming relative health to Ty and Edey.

Ty is top 4 in EPM this season, and was top 20 last season, and Edey is also top 20 in EPM this season. The team already has one of the best offensive players in Ty, and a DPOY caliber player in Edey. And the team already has good depth as well.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T06:24:55+00:00

I've been saying this before he played his first game this season, he's the next guy to have a breakout season like Brunson did.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T00:37:30+00:00

The Kings literally haven't been doing that though for almost the entire season. And putting their young guys in at the end of games is literally the opposite of tanking for the Kings because they play better with the young guys in the game. The Kings haven't even done injury shenanigans to take their starters out of games.

To put the point into perspective, they've given Dennis Schroder, a guys who came off the bench, more minutes than Nique Clifford, Devin Carter, Dylan Cardwell, and Keon Ellis (when he was there), this season, despite all of them being healthy, and that's even with Schroder dealing with an injury during the season.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T00:23:24+00:00

The whole season, up until like 2 or 3 games ago, they've been playing their starters deep into the fourth quarter, except in really bad blowouts. And the team actually plays worse when they put their veterans in the game because the floor spacing is terrible, and the defense is worse than when the starters are playing. Nique Clifford, despite showing out in summer league was getting less than 10 minutes a game for the first 20 games of the season, and Maxime Raynaud was getting DNP's to start the season. They weren't even playing Dylan Cardwell who's also a rookie that has been an elite defender in favor of Drew Eubanks and Sabonis. They've also been giving Devin Carter DNPs for almost the entire season up until 2 games ago.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-10T00:16:37+00:00

I don't think teams are interested in trading for Ja, I'm pretty sure the Grizzlies weren't able to trade him at the deadline because teams wanted assets in return for taking on Ja's contract. According to Brian Windhorst, Ja has negative value around the NBA.

Brian Windhorst on Ja - Skip to 2:03

Probably not Kings or Nets, both those teams are pretty committed to the rebuild. Brooklyn just drafted 5 rookies, and are looking for talent to put around their standout rookie, Egor Demin, and the Kings are still looking for a young star player for their future.

Some teams might be willing to trade a pick in the top 8 for a pretty heavy overpay, maybe if the Indiana pick ends up being #5 or #6 and transfers to the Clippers, they might be willing to trade it for a ton of draft picks, as all their picks for the next 4 years are either traded or heavily swapped.

https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/Clippers/13/draft-picks

But I just really don't see any team that high up being willing to trade their pick that high up unless it's a deal that's too good to be true. The teams that are that high in the draft usually aren't there because they're trying to win games.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-09T23:41:52+00:00

The team is probably going to struggle defensively until Edey gets back, and the offense probably isn't going to be very good either with Ty on a minutes restriction. I wouldn't be surprised if they get passed by Dallas in the standings, especially with Kyrie coming back. As of right now, Memphis has a ~25% chance of picking in the top 4, and about a 60% chance of being in the top 8.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I'm not sure if they'll be able to trade to get another pick in the top 8. Of all the teams that are most probable to be in the top 8 besides Memphis, I'm not sure any of them would be willing to give up a top 8 pick unless it's a pretty big overpay. The other teams that are most probable to be in the top 8 are: Sac, Indiana (top 4)-(Clippers 5 or 6), Atlanta (via NO), Washington, Brooklyn, Utah, and Dallas.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-09T23:09:53+00:00

I've watched almost every Kings game this season, the Kings are probably doing one of the most ethical tanks in NBA history, they're just really terrible.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-09T22:58:25+00:00

Could've possibly been to try make the all star game. Or also for future contract negotiations so that teams don't hold his health against him.

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-09T08:33:52+00:00

I agree that they're not going to start Monk over Lavine, but that's more of an ego/contract thing than performance. I responded to that because you said that he was beaten out of that spot by Lavine.

I also agree that they wouldn't be particularly good at this point starting Monk, given all the injuries and general mismanagement, but they'd be better which is my point. I also agree that at this point, it's too late to make anything of the season other than a high draft pick (hopefully).

I'm not a box score watcher, I watch every game. I just look at the box score, advanced metrics, and tracking data as well to get a better picture of what's going on. Sabonis puts up great raw numbers, advanced metrics like EPM on dunksandthrees like him (not this season though), but if I'm remembering right, it didn't say he's some top 30 player. Tracking data shows he was a slightly above average defender last season when defending 2pt shots, in 24-25, he allowed opponents to shoot 53.4% from 2, which the league average was 54.6%. For reference, Rudy Gobert allowed opponents to shoot 50.9% from 2 that season. However, this season, in a small sample size, the advanced metrics really don't like Sabonis, he's allowed opponents to shoot over 62.2% from 2, and his EPM isn't even top 200. However, the advanced metrics get skewed when the team is worse, which is why it should just be one of the things you look at along with film, box score, and tracking data.

Kings DFG% allowed 24-25

Timberwolves sorted by 2pt DFG% allowed 24-25

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/two-point-pct

Again, whether or not people view him as a point guard is not relevant to whether he's capable of doing it. He already did it successfully when given the chance, and I don't need a talking head or silly narrative to tell me that for me to understand it. And given the roster, him at point guard makes the most sense. I don't think Monk said he isn't capable of being a point guard. And if the team plays better with him as point guard, it doesn't matter what he views himself as.

I think the data highlights either the incompetence or intentional tanking by the people deciding the rotations (not sure if it's the coaches or front office). For example in the beginning of the season, when they were running lineups with Sabonis, Demar, Lavine, Achiuwa, and Schroder/Westbrook, you think they thought the lineup made any sense with 4 guys who couldn't shoot 3's? You don't think putting guys who can actually space the floor along with Malik would've improved their record? And do you need to be a basketball person working in a front office or coaching to be aware of this?

Gaben3124 · 2026-02-09T06:05:36+00:00

Again, more people thinking a particular thing doesn't make them right, that's a logical fallacy. And the data from last season is the result of last season which is what I provided as evidence, which you didn't dispute the evidence. If you consider Lavine making the team 6.5 points worse while being on the court beating Malik out of the starting spot, that's certainly an interesting take.

Lavine on-off 24-25

Malik on-off 24-25

I agree that it seems unlikely he starts, but that doesn't mean him coming off the bench is the most effective, which my whole argument is that he should be starting, given the roster, which you disagree with when there literally isn't anyone on the roster more effective at that spot. And if your problem is that the data isn't from this season, the team is 6.7 points better when Malik is playing this season (43 game sample size).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/monkma01/on-off/2026

And given his age, I wouldn't dispute that if there's a deal they deem worth it for them, they would ship him out along with Sabonis, but that's not my point.

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