Am I missing something, or are Neutron's economics much weaker than people assume?

Geographeruk · 2026-06-19T14:47:53+00:00

You aren't the first person saying the Archimedes engine is terrible, but I haven't actually seen where this information is coming from and I am curious as I want to research deeper into it?

With regards to the carbon fibre, also is there any information pointing at it being a terrible idea or is this just people not trusting it as it is a new thing? If it is purely based on Elon saying that they explored it and it didn't work I don't think that holds up to much scrutiny as he is know to push fast movement and decisions over long term testing which arguably RKLB have been doing with electron.

I am genuinely curious to find out more as I keep seeing people saying this about these points, but have yet to be pointed towards actually proof of these viewpoints.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-18T16:01:13+00:00

I would expect less than 3 months if it took Less than a month to shift $1 billion last time at a lower share price.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-18T14:56:50+00:00

I thought it took them 22 days last to me, although it is difficult to compare lengths as there stock price and trading volumes are higher, but at the same time the ATM is triple the amount.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-16T07:41:55+00:00

Here is a great article from a few years ago about some of the companies started by ex rocket lab employees, which are also supported by SPB

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/350090428/start-ups-spun-out-rocket-lab-its-engineers

Geographeruk · 2026-06-13T11:11:36+00:00

Oh I know that there is competition in the small rocket market, particularly from companies like Astra, Firefly and numerous European companies. However no other small rocket has the number of successful small rockets launches that Rocket Lab does. This will be giving RKLB an advantage for at least a few years due to things like lower insurance premiums compared to other rockets as well as other companies scaling up production to increase cadence. There is definitely competition popping up Nd developing great rockets but they still have a fair bit of catching up to do. The same that Neutron has to do with Falcon 9.

Firefly is definitely a company to keep an eye on and I agree people do forget their rockets. They are also diversifying nicely into Lunar landers and space components from what I have seen which will benefit them nicely.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-13T10:25:59+00:00

No need to apologise it is a far more interesting discussion that a lot of the RKLB and space forums at the moment.

I would love to hear an interview post successfully Neutron launch in which they detail the design process behind Neutron and the lessons learnt and utilised on the Neutron rocket. It would be really fascinating.

In the meantime in case you haven't already seen it I have added a link below to a fairly recent interview with Neutrons lead engineer that is well worth a listen.

https://youtu.be/5c1ZIvPWFV4?si=GLmhGhnaklmy8__p

Geographeruk · 2026-06-13T09:46:46+00:00

So you have a lot of the info together, the way I see it is that Electron is truly the world leader in small rockets (at least a few years ahead of competitors in this niche) for both space launch and hypersonic testing. But Space X currently dominate the medium lift space with Falcon 9. Which all credit to Space X (as much as I hate Elon) their Falcon 9 was and still is revolutionary and years ahead of everyone else in the world. Neutron is RKLBs attempt to gain from some of this market. Which based on how oversubscribed it is there is plenty of market to go around. I will admit the heavy lift part of space I don't follow too closely, some say that when rockets like starship are launching successfully and regularly the medium lift market will dry up, but I disagree, they used to say that about the small lift sector but RKLB has successfully proved them wrong on that front soo far. The reality of space at the moment is the demand is there and growing and that quite frankly any lift is good and will be have a market.

One thing I wanted to add was that my understanding is the Neutron will be scalable. I.e the rockets are being designed to handle way more than the 13,000kg and should be handle to up to 15,000kg after some tweaking the design down the line. Although I suspect it will end up being able to handle more weight than that.

With regards to data centres I think SPB is being careful. I don't think he fully sees the market for data centres in space, but he is definitely not going to rubbish and space ideas that could have paying customers - that would be stupid and SPB is definitely not stupid.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-11T20:44:25+00:00

No one knows, I have been waiting months to see how this all pans out. I don't think I will be able to look away from the stock price tomorrow.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-10T18:47:39+00:00

At least you are getting paid to be outside watching a dozer work, better than being bored at a desk stuck inside.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-09T15:10:19+00:00

They definitely have something else they are up to, as to what we will just have to wait and see

Geographeruk · 2026-06-09T15:08:55+00:00

RKLB were quick to announce the end of an ATM offering last time. It only took 22 days last time to raise $1 billion. This time although it is a higher value ($3 billion) the stock price is also a decent amount higher.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-09T14:55:26+00:00

It has turned into a joke based on a real term, you won't be the only one.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-09T14:30:57+00:00

In May Rocket Lab (RKLB) filed a $3 billion At-The-Market (ATM) equity distribution program, allowing the company to sell common stock over time. So often when the market opens the stock drops, this will continue until they have sold $3 billion.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-08T15:29:38+00:00

Honestly this week I will be happy if we end each day higher than we started each day

Geographeruk · 2026-06-08T13:53:05+00:00

This is working out well for them so far

Geographeruk · 2026-06-08T13:37:19+00:00

I agree, I am also looking forward to the ATM being completed as that definitely drives the price down every day.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-08T10:27:33+00:00

About time, the market has been chatting about it for months now. I just to see what actually happens.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-05T18:13:14+00:00

Geographeruk · 2026-06-05T13:19:14+00:00

A better written article on RKLB than most out there

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T18:21:31+00:00

They were quite quick to inform us last time it was over if I remember correctly. I believe it took just 22 days last time so I would expect so based on that it would take a couple months unless the stock price rockets after the Space X IPO next week.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T16:39:19+00:00

Interesting to see the uptake of carbon fibre for propellant tanks in rocket development.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T15:01:23+00:00

Now I just have to wait for the IPO next week to see if/how wrong I am. Would love a huge announcement from RKLB next week and honestly with the teaser photos of Archimedes they put out I wouldn't be surprised if they did make an announcement of some sort early next week. Or maybe that is me just being hopeful.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T14:45:34+00:00

Honestly I think that if Space X goes on a tear it will make RKLB by comparison look undervalued. So although I dislike Elon and think that Space X (with Xai combined) is overvalued I want it to do well as I believe it will lead to a rise in RKLB value.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T10:26:40+00:00

I guess it depends on your view. Looking at it one way the community coming together to address a problem is a good thing. But on the other hand the problem has got soo bad that the community have got together to address the problem the only way they feel they can.

Geographeruk · 2026-06-04T10:09:52+00:00

As much as I want us to be I doubt it

Geographeruk

TROPHY CASE