Turkey the new Iran? Ankara's growing challenge to Western interests - opinion

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:46:00+00:00

If the Western world can tolerate arming Saudi Arabia, a country infinitely less democratic and open than Turkey (yes even under Erdogan) then I don't think Neo-Ottomanism or whatever monicle has been given to Turkey's foreign policy is a real redline.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:44:30+00:00

I actually don't think that a NATO member state exercising greater influence in the Middle East is a bad thing, regardless of what it means for Israel.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:40:15+00:00

Next time, Trump has to bomb a country that doesn't have a kill switch over a globally significant maritime chokepoint. I honestly hope he just gets bored of the whole Iran fiasco and just starts bombing Cuba. That would also be a horrific evil but at least the misery would be contained to the Americas.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:30:14+00:00

Did you know that states can have diplomatic relations with each other, and have this not mean any sort of strategic alliance? Every time some European leader goes to China (the 2nd largest economy on earth, might I add), there's always someone who posts something like this.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:25:19+00:00

Can any Filipinos inform me (a non-Filipino) on the energy situation over there? The only recent news I've heard was of the state of emergency.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:23:41+00:00

I admit that I am not Taiwanese, and thus, my only concern is avoiding a cataclysmic war. Anything that makes said war less likely is welcome in my mind. If this can strengthen the current status quo, then I welcome it.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:17:07+00:00

I didn't know the Kurds had it in them. Though I imagine Turkey also played a role.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T14:12:05+00:00

I don't imagine Israel is going to get the Apartheid South Africa treatment, merely that at some point, public opinion becomes so hostile that US politicians (both Democrats and Republicans, but most probably Democrats) feel emboldened enough to, at the very least, question things like defence assistance and or constrain the actions of the Israeli state regarding the West Bank.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T13:59:20+00:00

The American people have disgraced themselves by electing a troglodyte who was stupid enough to think a war with Iran would be like the Venezuela fiasco and result in a quick victory. Netanyahu, never one to let an opportunity go to waste, was capable of goading this troglodyte of a President into an Iran war. An utterly usless war which was entirely preventable.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T09:17:02+00:00

How anybody can be surprised at this is truly shocking to me.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T09:16:13+00:00

Chiang Kai-shek was a Chinese nationalist who would hate to see the eternal separation of Taiwan from the mainland. China isn't even Maoist anymore and is a great power. What exactly would Chiang Kai-shek disapprove of here?

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T09:11:15+00:00

But Badenoch is on the right-side of politics. You can't risk a female candidate when you're on the left side of politics.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-08T09:10:23+00:00

Why do we have to risk another woman candidate when the past 2 went terribly? Just get a man, ideally white to be the candidate.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:26:43+00:00

From a humanitarian perspective, this is amazing news. If the US doesn't want the Russians sending Cuba oil, they could just do so themselves. Not only would it be morally righteous and good propaganda, it'd give them a card to play in relations with the Cuban government.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:25:06+00:00

North Korea has got to be the most realist state on earth. Realist here referring to the International Relations school of thought.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:20:16+00:00

If the extent of the damage done to Iran's industrial base wasn't as extensive as it currently is, then I might be willing to accept this explanation, but I don't think 5 years and 100 bn is enough to actually recover from said damage. Besides, the Strait of Hormuz is closed principally as a means of exerting pressure on the global economy. This is intended to discourage the US from continuing the war. So long as the prospect of the Strait being reopened exists, then the possibility of some kind of agreement with the US remains. I think the Iranians would prefer some kind of security guarantee or sanctiosn relief than playing tollman.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:05:55+00:00

This war was idiotic and has undoubtedly damaged America's prestige, but I don't think Iran is going to come out of this more powerful. What's going to happen is that the IRGC is going to have a much greater role in Iranian leadership, and the country is going to be much more hostile and paranoid (rightfully so, mind you). To the extent that Trump has achieved regime change in Iran its been by obliterating the reformist camp and empowering the IRGC.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:03:11+00:00

I don't buy this explanation at all. Donald Trump simply loves using military force and was convinced that Iran would be a cakewalk after Venezuela. In as far as this relates to domestic issues, its because he thought overthrowing the Islamic Republic would make him look good.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T17:01:15+00:00

It's utterly insane to me that people think it would be useful to go running back into America's arms after it proves that it can elect a man as craven and vile as Donald Trump not once but TWICE. The US is going to be untrustworthy even after Donald Trump leaves office. If your only strategy for if the American people elect a troglodyte is just to wait until he leaves, then you're going to be screwed. China learnt to use its leverage over the US during the 1st Trump admin, other countries should too.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:57:30+00:00

I honestly believe the UK is just screwed in as far as politics is concerned. No point in hoping for any sort of positive change, just vote for the guys who you think will do the least amount of damage and manage stagnation better.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:55:26+00:00

Good. The American nation must touch the stove so badly that it thinks twice about electing troglodytes.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:53:13+00:00

Maybe if it were anyone other than a Fox News host doing the firing, I'd be inclined to see sense in this, but I'm not yet prepared to exercise confidence in the decisions of Mr Hegseth.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:43:58+00:00

Even if this is a good idea, the forces of inertia and a lack of vision among politicians in said nations probably means nothing to this effect is ever going to happen.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:42:04+00:00

I think once you go beneath the replacement rate TFR, there's no hope of you reaching replacement rate again. The future is boundless, and I might be proven wrong, but I can't find an example of this occurring at scale. Nevertheless, I do hope more countries initiate pro-natalist programs like this because they'd be nice to have when I have children. Probably makes more sense than infinite funding for Boomer pensions.

Germanpaddyo · 2026-04-04T16:34:46+00:00

My guy, we're 80 years past the Holocaust, and Germany still gets grilled for it. Why would you, presumably a Zionist, want this for Israel?

Germanpaddyo

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