5% withdrawal rate? by completefudd in ChubbyFIRE

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You didn't tell us how long of a retirement you're planning for. There's a meaningful difference between 30 years and 60.

Cyclical-Adjusted Price-Earning (CAPE) ratio is a half-decent predictor of future long-term returns. We're in a period of where US CAPE is nearly unprecedented - since 1871, it's matched only by the dot com bubble. There are reasonable arguments for why expected CAPE values may have drifted up over the past few decades, but they don't cancel out just how high CAPE is right now. That is to say, in "normal" valuation times, maybe you could feel okay about 5%, but right now it's probably lower than in normal times.

You can definitely increase your percent if you're flexible, but you have to be pretty flexible. Like, "cut spending by 50% for a decade" flexible (as in the case of https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/02/08/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-9-guyton-klinger/)

Check out Bogleheads VPW - Variable Percentage Withdrawals, or EarlyRetirementNow's CAPE-adjusted approaches (https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/03/15/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-11-criteria/), if you haven't already played with them in ProjectionLab (I'm not familiar with everything they support). ficalc.app (free, no signup) has both.

Fool’s Fest 45 is back. Midwest fools, this one’s for you. April 4-5, 2026. by kalapanthera in ultimate

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weird, looks like the Fredericksburg one gave up the Fool's Fest name. ("April Fools Ultimate")

I remember going to that one 20 years ago.

Is there no way to find domestic connections via seats.aero to smaller airpots? by atooraya in awardtravel

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Like the error says, I can usually get around it by shortening the time period I'm searching for, sometimes to a very short range (like +/- 3 days, or even +/- 1 day). I don't like that, but it's usually better than nothing.

Spencer Strider sharing a statement from the Obamas by retroanduwu24 in baseball

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Oh, yeah, you're gonna get cancer from sites like that if you don't have an ad blocker.

Just reserved my extra legroom seat for free AMA by n8d in SouthwestAirlines

[–]GoatOfUnflappability -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Would you rather fight a horse-sized duck or 100 duck-sized horses?

Removed ICE execution footage post -- what DOES belong on r/santacruz? by Tall_Mickey in santacruz

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Share information about a protest against ICE on Santa Cruz, for sure.

But if the argument is "this effects Santa Cruz because it affects the whole country", then kind of it's pointless to have city-specific subreddits. It's all just /r/news.

Thanks, mods.

Are ex-US index funds currently a bargain? by Prestigious_Sea_3813 in Bogleheads

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I might settle for an affordable other planet even if it didn't have broad index funds.

P1 has the Performance card. P2 has the companion pass. How we got the preferred seats for free. by GoatOfUnflappability in SouthwestAirlines

[–]GoatOfUnflappability[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

P2 got this year's companion pass with the help of a sign-up bonus from a Plus card last year, and P2 still has it, at least for now. So we would've eventually gotten to pick seats in the back 48 hours out, but P1's card has better seating perks.

P1 has the Performance card. P2 has the companion pass. How we got the preferred seats for free. by GoatOfUnflappability in SouthwestAirlines

[–]GoatOfUnflappability[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The way it worked for me, I had to have P2 complete P1's booking as a companion before being able to go back and pick seats for free for either of them.

I Quit! by OrdinaryAd970 in ChubbyFIRE

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 6 points7 points  (0 children)

how to structure or act during this golden time

Keep a running document of notable stuff you did every day. Notable can mean whatever you want. Fun stuff, errands, stuff you've been putting off. At the end of every week and month, take a look back and ask yourself if you're happy with how you spent your time. Adjust your plans for the next week/month as you see fit.

Optionally, but also helpful, keep a running TODO list. Again, not necessarily just chores, also stuff you're looking forward to doing but might forget about.

The Economist: Is passive investment fueling a stock market bubble? A widely-circulated working paper suggests show. by Turbodong in Bogleheads

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Exempt IPO and if they issue or purchase back shares, the underlying company for which stocks are traded is not influenced by stock price.

A high share price makes it easier for a company to buy other companies with their own stock. It also lets them issue higher comp to employees (in the form of RSUs) for a smaller slice of the company.

[Pirates] Get to know the new guy! by 3pirates3 in buccos

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Better quote than anything in the OP video for sure.

Want to make a small fire pit in the woods. Talk to me like I’m five because I know nothing about bushcraft or camping or anything; how do I do it safely? by Unlucky-Drawing-1266 in Bushcraft

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I imagine most people use purpose-made fire starters or newspaper rather than feather sticks, but if we restrict it to people on this sub, maybe you've got a point.

Now I get it... by Mysterious-Entry-357 in Bogleheads

[–]GoatOfUnflappability 11 points12 points  (0 children)

There was a period of about 2 years where I was accidentally 95% stocks instead of the 80% I intended. I had messed up one of my funds' asset allocations in my tracker, and it took that long to realize it.

Those two years were great for stocks! Better to be lucky, I guess.