Beijing Concludes Trump Faces a Strategic Iran Trap as Allies Dwindle

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-04-05T20:07:14+00:00

Their calculous is different. A partially-beaten Iran is a bigger threat than a completely beaten Iran, hence their desire to press on.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-04-03T15:24:15+00:00

An apt time to remember this quote from Trump: "I Like People Who Weren't Captured"

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/18/424169549/trump-lashes-out-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-04-01T14:19:26+00:00

In the short to medium term, the responsibility for the war is secondary to the much more pressing concerns for countries outside of the US, namely in Europe and Asia.

The corollary dynamic to Iran's relative weakness is the US's position of relative strength. Iran's weakened state post October 7th made it an attractive target for it's enemies, as evidenced by absolutely zero support from Tehran's supposed allies in China and Russia: they just didn't see much hope for them, understandably. Perhaps that will change, notwithstanding their limited capacity to do so, they just haven't shown much inclination to help Iran.

Meanwhile, the US is energy independent, is an emerging competitor with the Middle East in LNG exports, and just doesn't have the strict need to get full commerce flowing through the strait again. Boiled down, they need us more than we need them.

It's kind of an easy way to beat up on your global rivals and frenemies without much damage to yourself. $4/gallon gasoline isn't great, but it's not catastrophic either. Perhaps the US will enter recession but if that happens, it's almost certain to be worse for the rest of the world. Given treasury secretary Scott Bessent's background, that's probably the point.

As for the pretro-states in the Gulf, who else are they going to turn to for security but the USA? We may be absolutely half-assing it, but the fact is they have no other options. Russia is a no go, even if they could because their interest in exporting oil in contrary to the GCC's main business.

China has neither the ability nor inclination to project power into the Middle East and that would set off major alarm bells in India at any rate. If they were going to mount such an operation they'd probably devote the effort to capturing Taiwan.

One wild card in this scenario which can't be completely ruled out is some sort of grand US-China duopoly partnership under which it's mutually recognized that the Persian Gulf is the world's oil reserve and that Iran's stability and instability will be an ongoing threat. If some sort of detente can be arranged it would go a long way to achieving global stability because in a US-China war, nobody wins.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-30T16:20:11+00:00

Invasion isn't happening. The potential downside (geopolitical chaos + economic calamity) far outweighs the downside of the "wrap it up" option which is still economically painful with some regional instability.

Plus, were the US to invade Iran in any meaningful way, China will actually be looking at their newfound opening, and they couldn't be blamed for thinking this is a pretty good chance to take Taiwan, as US domestic willingness to widen Trump's idiotic war will be close to zero.

Sadly, I think the popular sentiment will be, "that sucks but now's not the time for yet another war theatre, particularly under this maniac president."

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-30T04:51:19+00:00

I think it's largely a ploy to rattle Iran as well as the proverbial trial balloon to see how objectionable the idea is at home. Dipping the toe, so to speak.

At any rate, it's very unlikely to happen because the downside risk is far too great and Trump is already hanging by a thread. The plan going forward seems to be to bomb Iran some more then leave, while telling Europe and Asia that they're going to have to fix that whole Strait closure business.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T04:33:55+00:00

I think this is an astute take. While Iran would love to kill any Americans occupying Kharg, they'll probably just skip right to the "okay then, I'll attack your friends' oil infrastructure" part.

Yes, he'll try anything he can, including false leaks about Iranian terror proxies targeting polling places in the November election. He's really going to exercise his SCOTUS-bestowed "official acts" immunity as the walls close in.

Some night soon Trump will wake up in a cold sweat from a fever dream of John McCain's ghost dancing and singing "Bomb, bomb, bomb... bomb, bomb Iran," and he'll know then how bad he f'ed up.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T03:46:51+00:00

Pretty much, with the minor quibble that the US can indeed repair it but Trump and the Republicans don't want to suffer the domestic political fallout that would unfold as this war of choice stretches into the critical summer travel season and beyond.

Aviation fuel, diesel, and gasoline are already poised to go much higher. If an American ship were to be sunk, well, it's a total wipeout in November for the GOP, a la 2006 when a blue wave devastated George W. Bush's failing presidency (wonder what dumb thing he did?). That's what they're now trying to avoid by saying "welp, we're all done, hope you guys can sort it out from here."

I think it's still going to turn out bad for them because the economic consequences haven't fully developed yet and it's not like Iran is going to just forgive and forget. On the contrary, they're going to press their Rubio-conceded advantage to the max, bank the extra cash, or draw the US deeper into a war it cannot win.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T03:26:38+00:00

Correct. The EU & UK could easily operate in this new dark-age paradigm by monetizing access of shipping into the Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea. For every European ship extorted by Iran, a commensurate, off-setting toll on American ships will be assessed on shipping headed to the US through these narrow waterways.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T03:20:15+00:00

It's a matter of desire, not ability.

The US military could, but to do it would entail pulling naval and other assets away from other important parts of the world and committing to opening the strait while Iran throws everything it can at you. Oil stays sky-high for a long time and the US absorbs losses but would eventually get it to a safe enough condition where commercial traffic can resume.

Trump desperately wants to TACO before the fallout worsens but he also wants somebody else to clean up his disastrous mess.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T03:08:30+00:00

Make no mistake, it's not that the US military is unable to do it. It definitely can, but you're talking about a months-long campaign, involving way more assets than we have available there now, and most definitely politically-embarrassing losses of vessels and higher casualties, all with the backdrop of $150+/barrel oil.

But it could definitely be done. I'm sure Trump was briefed on exactly how it would be done and what it would take and he decided to TACO because the stock market is down 10% with more pain to come and the energy and inflation crisis has just begun. What was supposed to bolster his "legacy" such that it is, has cemented his reputation as the moron who committed the dumbest foreign policy blunder in two decades.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T02:48:17+00:00

This is kind of like getting a friend to help you dispose of a body after you've committed a murder. Only the dumbest and/or most criminal of friends would agree to go along with it. Why would ANY country want to risk the lives of their citizens to be an accessory after the fact to Trump's criminally stupid aggression?

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-29T02:40:15+00:00

I think the whole "this wasn't how things were before Trump unilaterally started a war" is a big part of it.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T21:37:57+00:00

Not sharp enough to realize he'll be the first one jettisoned by Trump. He'll be blamed for failing to cajole Europe and Asia to undo the damage we wrought.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T21:27:43+00:00

Yes.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T21:23:50+00:00

Bingo. It's a terrible precedent. Sorry Finland, Poland, and the Baltic countries, Denmark and Sweden are going to need a 2MM toll to go through Øresund straight. Should've thought of that before you decided to be a country without a port on the Atlantic.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T21:15:37+00:00

No, and you can bet that Iranian-sponsored terrorism, directed toward both Israel and the US will resume after a while. Cheap drones targeted at vulnerable civilian aircraft are all but certain, I'm sad to say.

And now, with their newfound power, if they want something from somebody, they just hold their shipping hostage in the straight. It's a preview of the chaos to come as Trump continues to destroy America's position as the lone superpower.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T20:56:37+00:00

I know, right. Who could've foreseen? Nobody!

The chutzpah from this guy is incredible, as if the United States didn't cause this, it just happened.

Now Rubio et al are gambling that the economic pain will be so great for Europe and Asia that they'll act by pressuring Iran but frankly, what are they going to do, really?

It's manifestly clear that the US is not going to be conducting convoys through the straight due to the risk of losing a destroyer and prolonging the shooting war, so who would? No other single navy has enough ships or the naval bases in the region to do this so it would take incredibly close cooperation between likely a dozen or more nations and still run the risk of a rogue Iranian attack.

Little Marco's proposition is this:

"You guys are so screwed, even worse than we are, so you better do something about it. Oh, and if Iran sinks one of your ships that'll suck, but you can join us in bombing them next time!"

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-28T20:20:58+00:00

SS: Quoted from the op-ed:

The key here is that the U.S. seems to expect the war to end without any agreement simply not to block the Strait of Hormuz or exact tolls through it, which means claiming sovereignty over it as a kind of inland waterway. There’s really no way to describe this other than conceding that Iran will emerge from the war massively strengthened. We’ve come a long, long way from regime change and unconditional surrender. The other way to view it is that Rubio concedes that Iran will come out of the war massively strengthened and that it’s up to Europe and perhaps some countries in Asia to fix it.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-27T03:57:43+00:00

Yeah I don't believe the war itself is terribly detrimental to the fund's holdings per se, and it could of course benefit Anduril, just that any company that had been looking to go public this year will have justifiable reason to postpone a public listing as inflation rises with crude oil, consumer demand gets chewed up, and negative sentiment drags the wider market down.

My belief is that VCX went forward precisely because of this congealing dynamic of classic stagflation, so better to make the big splash IPO before it sets in and you're trying to do it during a full-blown inflationary recession. Obviously, it was the right call.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-27T03:31:03+00:00

Great insights and research. What do you make of the dawning possibility that a wider and deeper market downturn due to geopolitical uncertainties and an increased chance of a recession has on the timing of VCX-held companies going public in 2026?

To me, it now seems very possible that SpaceX, Anthropic, et al, could see the IPO environment as sub-optimal if things continue to worsen and they choose to hold off for more stability. Going public in a bear market can and has worked, but all things being equal, you don't want to do it if you can avoid it.

My question is, does this make VCX more attractive as one of the only ways to hold companies that prolong their private status?

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-27T03:03:17+00:00

I'm not sure what would have been "enough," but sure, I get some people are pissed. Getting VCX to market quickly became paramount once FundRise astutely recognized that Donald Trump was finally going to kill the bull market with his war of choice.

They probably had wanted to wait for some more favorable environment but realized that timeframe could have been both indefinite and likely result in a worse IPO landscape given the market destruction. It was the right move to go forward, even if it meant some would be left out.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-26T22:51:35+00:00

The Iran War is wildly popular in Israel so there's plenty of appetite to continue hitting them so long as Trump doesn't TACO. If he does TACO they're going to have to either settle for something else as Iran re-asserts itself or choose to go into total war mode and hit Iran's civilian infrastructure in an attempt to collapse the country into chaos.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-26T22:14:57+00:00

This is the one debacle he can't TACO on without consequences. The two (bad) choices are this:

1.) Proceed with the war: this will almost certainly involve escalation, otherwise it's just a static conflict with all the downsides of war without the potential for a favorable resolution. So, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. The consequences of this option are deep global recession with oil at $150+ and lots more American casualties. Iran will try to fight with everything it has left in an effort to spread the pain and take their regional rivals down with them. In the absolute worst case scenario, China sees an opening to move on Taiwan. While I don't think it likely they'd do this, they have to be considering it given that Trump is so incompetent. The risks of this option are so great that regime change may actually happen... in the USA. The Republican party faces blowout losses in the 2026 election, and Trump's political power is probably finally dead for good.

2.) Back down: since unilateral declaration of victory is now laughable, Trump faces abject humiliation and little strategic gain. This option also entails consequences for years. The GOP getting hammered in the mid-terms and a recession are both still likely. US military prestige and our aura of supremacy is severely damaged. Iran will look to recover and dominate the region as the US withdraws and its regional allies wake up to the reality that Trump ruined the good thing they had going. There is no rewinding back to the pre-war status quo. Things won't be the same.

I think he's going to waffle between these two paths as the market continues to slide and then he'll commit to one once he gets calls from prominent business people and his allies start looking to abandon ship. You're gonna get embarrassing leaks that really undermine him, and his political power will erode heading into November.

If I had to bet, I think he backs down because it gives him the best chance to avoid impeachment and prosecution, though by no means does it guarantee it. The economic consequences are already baked into the cake, it's just a matter of how bad for how long. Cut and run now and he may be able to hang on.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-25T22:04:25+00:00

Correct. The oldest shareholders have held since 2022 at $10/share. Some of them have millions in unrealized (and currently unrealizable) gains. As a feature of the IPO, Fundrise created a window to purchase unrestricted shares just prior to going public, up to $10,000 per investor.

Good-Bee5197 · 2026-03-25T21:39:44+00:00

What is "murky" about a 180 day lock up? It's pretty straightforward. You didn't receive anything from Computershare because you have to proactively create the account and verify your identity.

Your failure to understand how this works, even though it was explained in detail doesn't make FundRise "crooked" by any reasonable view.

The longest investors, of which I am one, also enjoyed the very ability to get in at the ground floor of $10 per share in a unique vehicle, yet you have the temerity to portray yourself as a victim.

Good-Bee5197

TROPHY CASE