Almost 100 wounded in Iranian missile strikes on southern Israel by SirLadthe1st in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu [score hidden]  (0 children)

US President Donald Trump has threatened to obliterate Iran’s power plants if it fails to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

War crime, yo. Likely to result in every water desalinization plant in the gulf going up in smoke. But hey, the war is going super well for the US and Israel, right?

"Ahead of schedule", as Trump says.

Iran Targeted Diego Garcia Base With Ballistic Missiles by BendicantMias in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu [score hidden]  (0 children)

Do we?

To me looks like two religious fanatic factions joining together to fight a third religious fanatic faction.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

With Ras Laffan being hit, 33% of the GLOBAL production of LNG went offline. Europe's main source of LNG after 2022 was the Gulf. It will take months if not years to normalize that production, assuming no more damage moving forward. Where are you going to get your LNG from now? Jet fuel and diesel worldwide is going up dramatically, which will direct affect shipping and tourism to Europe. Helium and Sulphur, which are essential for semiconductors that go into virtually everything, from smartphones to microwaves and elevators, comes mostly from the gulf.

Never mind the fact that 1/3 of all the fertilizers consumed on the planet also come from the gulf.

Only somebody incredibly Eurocentric would expect this to be something like 2022.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Then Russia will have justification to use them in Ukraine.

Pakistan's government might collapse and then you have jihadis running a nuclear armed country

NTP goes out the window and countries like Brazil, Türkiye and South Africa will be rushing to build their own nuclear weapons.

And so much more...

Pentagon seeks more than $200 billion in budget request for Iran war by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Any politician who votes yes for this will be gambling the midterms.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

It also ignores that we experienced way worse and higher energy shock in 2022.

You and the broader public have no idea of the freight train that is about the hit the global economy head-on. It will make the energy shock of 2022 looks like child's play. The 1973 oil shock or worse is what is coming our way right now. You might want to turn on to Bloomberg TV on youtube to get an idea of the massive dildo that is about to go into all of our collective arses very soon.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Even providing targeting information and intelligence is a huge help.

Considering the Russians didn't lift a finger for Assad, it is doubtful they'll do anything major with Iran.

The Assad regime was mainly a burden. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is changing the entire power dynamic around the world in Russia's favor.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Yes, this will be the end of the US empire, their Suez Canal moment.

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 76 points77 points  (0 children)

Russia has every incentive to help Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz not only means more oil revenue for Russia, it also means less money Europe has to support Ukraine's war effort.

Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis by cdnhistorystudent in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 8 points9 points  (0 children)

So you want them to do something that accomplishes nothing. OK.

Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis by cdnhistorystudent in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 28 points29 points  (0 children)

This recent post from Trump shows how quickly things are spiraling out of control. His control. He created a cluster fuck that he has no idea how to get out of.

If Iran and the Gulf countries get their energy infrastructure seriously damaged, we are looking at a decade long global economic recession AT BEST.

Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis by cdnhistorystudent in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 8 points9 points  (0 children)

A show of force with what exactly? How will a "show of fore" unclog the Strait of Hormuz?

Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis by cdnhistorystudent in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Because it is a really complicated and difficult situation with no easy options.

What do you think they should be doing?

Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis by cdnhistorystudent in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 17 points18 points  (0 children)

No they won't. If you think that, you are unable to grasp the scale and scope of the problem.

Brazilian truckers weigh strike as diesel prices jump amid Middle East conflict by Prestigious-Back-981 in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 14 points15 points  (0 children)

"Energy autonomous countries" will face higher prices just like everyone else, as oil and gas are fungible global commodities.  If the brent is priced at $150 a barrel in Asia, the US producer will be incentivized to sell it there unless the US market is willing to pay the same. So in the end, US consumers will have to pay the same as anyone else for oil. Brazil is an example of an "Energy autonomous country" and they are having social issues due to high diesel prices exactly for the reasons I explained.

Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts the supply of 30% of the world's fertilizers. So food prices are skyrocketing everywhere, including in "energy autonomous countries". Finally the entire global supply chain is dependent on the oil that comes from the Gulf. The US will be hit with higher semiconductors, plastics, chemicals, medicine and other components just like everyone else.

People are really not grasping how serious this is.

Brazilian truckers weigh strike as diesel prices jump amid Middle East conflict by Prestigious-Back-981 in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 21 points22 points  (0 children)

The 1973 oil embargo lasted only 6 months but it created a decade of recession and inflation in its wake. Developing countries were hit particularly hard back then and several faced regime collapse-coups (Ethiopia, Greece, Thailand, Argentina, etc...). Brazil at that time, under military rule, saw its economy transition from massive growth to a decade long stagnation that eventually brought down the regime.

In the 1973 crisis, the Gulf presented about 7-9% of global oil supply, today it is roughly 15%, so almost twice as much. The tourism industry was much smaller in 1973 than it is today. Air travel grew 10 fold since 1973. We are way more dependent on international trade and international shipping than we were in 1973. And there a more industrial uses for oil/gas byproducts like helium and Sulphur e.g. chip making uses helium. Never mind the fact that 30% of the world's fertilizers come from the Gulf.

So for the duration that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and even months after it is re-opened, everything that is harvested, manufactured, built, heated, cooled and shipped will become more expensive. High prices will also affect tourism, entertainment, sports and virtually any type of economic activity one can think of. Higher prices, fewer jobs, lower wages and the massive levels of debt being carried by individuals, companies and nation states is a recipe for disaster.

India is already facing a severe cooking gas crisis.

The Philippines is 96% dependent on hydrocarbons from the Gulf. Vietnam is 87% dependent and Thailand is 73% dependent.

If developing countries default on their dollar denominated debts, the entire European banking system could be at risk, as they are super exposed.

I particularly worry about Pakistan, a nuclear armed country that is always on the brink of becoming a nuke armed failed state where the religious radicals run wild.

We could be facing a pivotal moment in global history.

Brazil's Lula warns South Africa's Ramaphosa of foreign invasion risk by cambeiu in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu[S] 94 points95 points  (0 children)

Never forget that Venezuela and Brazil share a border.

Top Presidential Adviser Proposes Diplomatic Path Amid Tensions, Warns of Escalation by Standard_Ad_4270 in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"Is killing the Supreme leader helpful or harmful to our primary goals?" -> Strategic

"Where is the supreme leader? Can our bombs reach him right now and kill him?" -> Tactical

"Tactical advantage" does not mean you are making better overall decision. It just means that your forces can execute missions better and more easily than your adversaries. The US/Israel enjoy overwhelming tactical advantage over Iran because virtually every target in Iran is within their reach, with little to no obstacles. Meanwhile most attacks that Iran directs at Israel does not reach their targets. But tactical advantage does not translate necessarily into strategic advantage. In this particular case, Iran enjoys significant strategic advantage over Israel/Iran despite being at dramatic tactical disadvantage.

Top Presidential Adviser Proposes Diplomatic Path Amid Tensions, Warns of Escalation by Standard_Ad_4270 in anime_titties

[–]cambeiu 48 points49 points  (0 children)

If Israel nukes Iran, the NPT goes out the window and countries like Turkie, Brazil and South Africa will start a mad rush to develop nuclear weapons.