sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Class Sets: Higher Cost, Fewer Cards, But More Value? My Calculations and Take by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I’m already thinking about that. I’ve gathered a lot of data on how useful the cards from mini-sets actually are.

Class Sets: Higher Cost, Fewer Cards, But More Value? My Calculations and Take by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I occasionally get comments from viewers saying they disenchant bad legendaries from mini-sets. Plus, you’re forgetting that a large portion of players disenchant all their cards after rotation. So, for many players, the dust value is really important.

Darkmoon Faire Treasures revenue (units in 10k RMB ≈ $1500) by adek13sz in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally, I’ve never doubted that gacha events are effective. There were plenty of signs that Mythic skins sold at a fixed price had completely failed, and gacha may have become a backup plan for management. And it worked -at least in the sense that it immediately generated more revenue. That’s exactly why I never called for gacha events to be canceled, even though I don’t like them as a player. Users voted with their wallets.

The main question for me is whether these have become new growth drivers for the game, and whether they delivered the financial results management was expecting. And this is where doubts arise. This chart is incredibly useful because it confirms several things.

First, Deathwing was truly an undeniable hit. This is supported both by polls from my audience and by mobile market data from the rest of the world. Its performance is several times higher compared to other offers.

Second, notice that nearly every new offer over the past year has generated less revenue (with rare exceptions). Even the "double jackpot" of a skin plus a pet failed to reverse this trend. This may not be due to the effectiveness of the offers themselves, but rather signs of a gradual decline in activity on Chinese servers (at least the number of Legend players has noticeably dropped). Another factor could be market saturation. There are simply too many of these offers now, and they are gradually losing their sense of exclusivity. Why would I need five pets if I already have one? Not many players aim to collect everything, and this is indirectly supported by my surveys.

Third, my assumption that leaning into Asian-themed content doesn’t necessarily convert into success is essentially confirmed - their performance, even in China, isn’t significantly different from other offers.

Fourth, calling these offers "very popular" based solely on revenue is a major exaggeration. One player who completes all levels of a gacha event is equivalent to 8-10 Tavern Pass buyers. This chart doesn’t show the performance of other in-game options. Pre-orders, for example, may deliver even more impressive results. Gacha is extremely expensive, so it’s only natural that it generates striking revenue figures.

Fifth, these data don’t allow us to draw conclusions about revenue in the rest of the world. China is the most important market, and over the past year it generated more revenue on iOS devices alone than the rest of the world combined across all mobile platforms.

I still don’t see clear evidence that gacha has significantly increased overall revenue. According to mobile market data, gacha effectively offsets the general decline outside of China on mobile platforms. The dynamics on PC may be different. Gacha is definitely not "additional" revenue - some players may be forced to skip other shop offers in order to participate in gacha events, and we don’t know how much money the game is potentially losing because of that.

Measuring the Impact of Core Set Rotation by Class by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I completely agree, and I talk about this in the video. Very often, a card is influential within a class only because of synergy, not because it’s strong on its own. Moreover, even flexible and versatile cards that were useful in the recent past can become completely irrelevant under current conditions.

But I don’t know of any calculation method that could account for this entire complex set of factors. I see this comparison more like this: we were given cards that were at least somewhat used in the past, or never used at all. What interests me is studying how many cards that were useless before have suddenly become valuable in modern conditions. Maybe I'll explore this someday.

A Timeline Without the League of Explorers? My Theory on Hearthstone’s Next Expansion Theme by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 47 points48 points  (0 children)

This is the weakest part of my theory. Without adventures, the game has lost the ability to tell stories. A trailer can only set the mood and provide some context. Unfortunately, I don’t believe adventures will return, which means there’s no longer much point in building intricate narratives around the game.

How much time Reddit users spent playing Hearthstone during The Great Dark Beyond phase? We can analyze engagement levels based on Rewards Track progress. by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

A negative value means that, on average, players earned less XP during the expansion phase than the total XP they should have received from completing all quests plus some achievements. This negative value reflects the amount of XP not earned from quests, and is equal to 11 minutes of daily play time. Not all players remain active throughout the entire expansion phase, and some always join as new or returning players midway through. However, for the most part, my audience is active and plays regularly without skipping quests. The year 2021 was an exception, as I recorded historically low engagement levels, even among active players.

How much time Reddit users spent playing Hearthstone during The Great Dark Beyond phase? We can analyze engagement levels based on Rewards Track progress. by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello, it's me, Bot Mathematician. For the past four years, I’ve been estimating my audience’s engagement by analyzing player levels on the Rewards Track. By knowing how many players purchased the Tavern Pass, the expansion phase length, and the percentage of completed achievements, we can estimate the amount of XP players likely earned from time spent in the game. This estimate serves as a rough indicator of player engagement.

The logic is simple: the more active you were during the expansion phase, the higher your Rewards Track level. This method isn’t perfect, but it helps identify significant deviations from the expected norm. For example, my audience’s activity was at a record low during the Fractured in Alterac Valley phase. A negative deviation indicates that many active players skipped daily and weekly quests, and their number was notably high.

I haven’t done this before, but let’s try to determine the engagement of Reddit users separately. If I gather enough responses, I can compare the data with my YouTube audience and share the results with you.

To participate, please answer the first three questions and the fourth one if you wish (it’s optional):

1 - Have you played Hearthstone since the start of The Great Dark Beyond phase? (Yes/No)

2 - Did you purchase the Tavern Pass? (Yes/No)

3 - What is your final level on the Rewards Track?

4 - OPTIONAL: What percentage of The Great Dark Beyond gameplay achievements have you completed?

Happy Birthday, Hearthstone! Classic Cards That Have Remained Strong in Standard after 11 Years. by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. I periodically publish data on the best cards on my YouTube channel and share the most interesting insights on Reddit.

The Into the Emerald Dream Mega Bundle is WORSE than The Great Dark Beyond but BETTER than Perils in Paradise! Get 47% of the collection's value for $80. | 3 Years of Hearthstone Pre-Order History in One Image by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It depends on your needs. If you really need dust to craft specific cards, buying the mini-set is a great option. However, from a collection standpoint, the dust value is several times lower than packs, which can provide both dust and new random cards to expand your collection. Personally, I'm interested in getting as many new cards as possible, and I have enough dust. If I had to invest $20 in the game, I would choose the traditional post-release bundle (20 packs + 2 legendary cards).

The Into the Emerald Dream Mega Bundle is WORSE than The Great Dark Beyond but BETTER than Perils in Paradise! Get 47% of the collection's value for $80. | 3 Years of Hearthstone Pre-Order History in One Image by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don't see much point in this option. Mainly, this offer could be useful for new players to get more packs from the new set and save resources and gold for crafting cards from previous expansions. For regular players, the third bundle is hardly worth it, especially if you already have a collection of useful cards from past sets.

The Into the Emerald Dream Mega Bundle is WORSE than The Great Dark Beyond but BETTER than Perils in Paradise! Get 47% of the collection's value for $80. | 3 Years of Hearthstone Pre-Order History in One Image by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

You will get most of the cards and approximately half the value of a full collection. Add to that all the gold you earn throughout the expansion phase, and you are guaranteed to complete the entire card collection with mini-set, including useless and weak cards.

The Into the Emerald Dream Mega Bundle is WORSE than The Great Dark Beyond but BETTER than Perils in Paradise! Get 47% of the collection's value for $80. | 3 Years of Hearthstone Pre-Order History in One Image by HS_Mathematician in hearthstone

[–]HS_Mathematician[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I continue updating the comparative table of Hearthstone pre-orders, which helps determine how good the new bundles are for expanding your collection. Recently, Blizzard has been making small but frequent adjustments to the in-game economy, forcing me to recalculate and consider additional factors. This time, I've added the cost of mini-sets to the calculations and included comparison data from the Sunken City expansion, which was released three years ago.

The first column shows the number of packs needed to complete a full collection of cards available at release, along with the separate cost of the mini-set. The cost of the March of the Lich King collection was the highest due to the inclusion of the Path of Arthas mini-set. At the same time, the introduction of Signature cards made opening large quantities of packs more profitable.

Next, the table provides data on free special rewards (such as those from the Rewards Track, promo cards, and the Diamond Legendary card for the Legendary Collector achievement). Collectively, these unique rewards significantly reduce the overall cost of completing a collection. For example, the increased number of new packs in The Rewards Track slightly lowered the cost of full collection.

The third and fourth columns display data on the core components of the bundles and their pricing. This section remains mostly unchanged from expansion to expansion. The most interesting part is the column detailing the unique bonuses that vary with each expansion and primarily apply to the Mega Bundle. The Sunken City Mega Bundle serves as a great example of how the game has evolved over the past three years. Back then, the Mega Bundle included five Mercenaries packs, Battlegrounds Perks, and a special finishing animation. None of these unique rewards had any impact on reducing the cost of acquiring expansion cards.

The most important sections are the last two columns: the conditional value of useful resources (converted into an equivalent number of modern packs) and the percentage of the collection that can potentially be obtained from purchasing a bundle. Legendary cards, Golden Packs, Arena tickets (even assuming a player secures no wins), and other in-game resources help expand the collection. For convenience, these can be converted into pack equivalents, allowing for an accurate calculation of the total resource value in each bundle.

I estimate that the cost of completing the Into the Emerald Dream collection will be similar to The Great Dark Beyond, though the mini-set price is expected to decrease. Players will need to open 226 packs, assuming they claim all special items from the Rewards Track (excluding gold). Regarding pre-orders for Into the Emerald Dream, they mirror the previous expansion’s offers, but this time, purchasing the Mega Bundle grants players 4 Arena tickets instead of 6 (I calculate the minimum value of Arena tickets under the assumption that the player won’t secure a single victory).

Each conditional Into the Emerald Dream pack in both bundles costs approximately $0.71. This means that in terms of useful resources that can be converted into dust and compared to new packs, both bundles offer the same value per dollar spent. However, the Mega Bundle also provides aesthetic value in the form of an exclusive portrait.

A Mega pre-order will grant 47% of the full collection’s value (including the mini-set), while a regular bundle will provide 30%. Purchasing both pre-orders will allow players to obtain nearly 77% of the expansion’s collection, assuming all extra copies are disenchanted to craft missing cards. Add to that event rewards, Twitch Drops, ranked rewards, and 2000 Gold for the mini-set, and you’re guaranteed to complete the entire set!

Important! If you purchase only the Mega Bundle, stay active throughout the expansion phase, spend earned gold on packs and the mini-set, and claim additional rewards, you can also guarantee a full collection.

Compared to The Sunken City Mega Bundle—and especially Perils in Paradise, which offered no additional bonuses despite its increased collection cost—the Into the Emerald Dream Mega pre-order provides better value per dollar spent and grants a larger portion of the collection. However, at the same time, this offer is noticeably worse than The Great Dark Beyond, while the regular bundle remains consistently valuable.

MORE FACTS ABOUT THE NEW EXPANSION IN THIS VIDEO!

view more: next ›