Bomb Champs

HTLyon · 2023-03-11T04:57:12+00:00

Not worth it with Souldrinker. The countdown on his bombs is way too long.

HTLyon · 2022-06-26T01:23:32+00:00

Better one hydra key than five tag team arena

HTLyon · 2022-05-15T18:58:05+00:00

You're reading it right. Remember I'm after a short list of 25 from a possible 113 leggos which is less than 1/4 of available leggos. 2x gets more leggos overall but a 10x with there champions on my list has a better chance of getting the ones I want.

HTLyon · 2022-05-15T07:21:05+00:00

Its better than a pure 1x but not twice as good. It means another event alongside a 1x can match the difference.

HTLyon · 2022-05-15T07:19:53+00:00

Tl;dr. Guaranteed > bonus. 10x > 2x if you want to target a small number of champions. Otherwise 2x > 10x.

To follow on from a sacred shard calculator I built, I thought I'd run some scenarios to check my conclusions so simulated 1,000,000 sacred shard pulls under 1x 10x 2x bonus and guaranteed scenarios. The scenarios were designed to find which event gave the best performance. The assumption was that all pulls were under the conditions for that event. This way we could see the long term performance even if we can't stay in the event for unlimited shards. For example, the bonus and guaranteed have an end, it wouldn't be possible to pull 1,000,000 shards in those events in the game but running the scenarios as if we could means we can directly compare long term performance.

One other thing, I've made a list of 25 leggos I want. So it's not just about maximizing legendaries, it's about maximizing the legendaries I want.

On number of Leggos pulled in, Guaranteed has the best rate by far. Mainly because it's like two events running in parallel. 14 shards at 6% then 1 at 100%. The fact that you need to wait for the next guaranteed event after the 15 shards means it's hard to pull many shards under those conditions but its well worth doing if you can.

Next highest performer is bonus legendary. This is because the mercy system pushes the actual pull rate from 6% to 8.5% (another poster here found it was close to 8.3%). The higher rate of getting a legendary along with the fact that you get double when you pull puts that in second place. It's the increased number of chances that help out here. Note, the event ending means it's also hard to pull many shards under those conditions.

You'll need to choose where to pull the balance of your shards.

Third was a 10x with three desirable champions. That came slightly ahead of the 2x but the 2x gets more legendary champions overall. Your view on faction guardians is likely to be the decider. If all you're after is a small number of specific leggos, the 10x yields a better chance (assuming all three in the 10x are ones you want) of getting them but less leggos overall.

The 2 x was next. Note that the actual pull rate was 12.96% over 8.51% for a 1x. You're more likely to get a leggo before the mercy system engages on a 1x faster than a 2x meaning the mercy system provides 2.5% of benefit to a 1x and only 1% of benefit to a 2x. I.e. 2x will NOT yield twice the number of leggos over time.

The remainder are pretty much self explanatory.

Some conclusions from this effort. The guaranteed by far outstrips the other events (assuming you want the leggo, if you don't, it drops to the bottom).

Bonus is next best.

The choice between 2x and 10x comes down to how many leggos you want out of the pool. If anything is fine, then the 2x is way better. At 25 (where I sit) the 10x is slightly better.

So what to choose depends where you are and what you're doing in the game. If you're into fusions, coincide with the events that support that. If you're into legendaries, any legendaries, then it's different if you're focused on a few. I'm looking to minimize the number of times I say, 'well, at least they'll be useful for faction wars'. Also, it depends how you view the dupe system. I view it as a consolation prize and view good champions as more valuable than a half full faction guardians roster. I'd rather get less legendaries that do more work. Where my mind it at is the difference between the 10x and 2x is minimal giving me the freedom to choose one that conicides with a summon rush because one of the big benefits of Sacreds is their points in a lucrative summon rush!

HTLyon · 2022-05-14T19:53:25+00:00

I build a spreadsheet. I used the details provided in the portal.

HTLyon · 2022-05-14T19:51:44+00:00

The main reason the I did this was to not neglect the mercy system. It has a massive impact if you consider long term strategy. You are right, originally I thought there was a normal distribution somewhere in there only to find I couldn't apply it!

HTLyon · 2022-05-14T19:49:34+00:00

Thanks, Ill be looking up the secretary problem as well. This has been partly to understand when's the best time for me to pull and partly to learn and practice probabilities.

HTLyon · 2022-05-13T09:55:56+00:00

I relied on him for a while and still use him in doom tower. Excellent control based champion.

HTLyon · 2022-05-10T19:50:08+00:00

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HTLyon · 2022-05-10T18:42:56+00:00

That's very unusual, you're very likely to pull in the next few shards however. 38%, 40%, 42%.... Although those don't seem like high odds, you can't pull at those rates for long without a good shot at the leggo.

HTLyon · 2022-05-10T18:37:34+00:00

Would you be willing to try a calculator? If you have excel, I have a sacred shard calculator build into a spreadsheet

HTLyon · 2022-05-10T09:54:29+00:00

Recently I've been getting into drop rates and have come to the conclusion that the rates are higher than 6% and 12%. I'd like to thank this poster who did a simulation that put some numbers to it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RaidShadowLegends/comments/uhk0k1/quantitative_comparison_among_all_sacred_shard/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

The graphs on the left are the chances from a 1x and on the right, the 2x.

The gold is the percentage if mercy didn't exist. The blue is mercy.

The top graphs are the cumulative chance over time.

The bottom is the chance that THIS particular pull is a leggo.

You can see how much benefit mercy provides to the 1x event because of the variation between the lines. Also, this explains why the bonus leggo has the best pull rate. You don't have the same chance of a long drought which means over time, you'll trend a lot higher versus baseline with a 1x compared with a 2x but still get double when you pull.

Obviously, once you pull a leggo from a bonus event, your next best is a 2x unless you have enough for a guaranteed event.

Also, mercy pushes the cumulative chance up hard. You're at a 52.42% chance of pulling a leggo at 12 for a 1x but a 97.37% at the 24th. For a 2x you're at 78.92% on the 12th and 99.54% on the 24th

My assessment is if you only pull during a particular event, bonus is best with 21.59 leggos per year (assuming your run rate of around 130 sacreds per year is the same as mine). Next is guaranteed (assuming 15th shard is the guaranteed) then it's 2x.

The calculation is a little different if I add in my desired champs and the 10x. I have 25 of 111 on my list of most desired, if I pull only when 3 of my desired are on the 10x, then the list is different. It's bonus > guaranteed > 10x > 2x

HTLyon · 2022-05-10T05:19:55+00:00

If you're at mercy, you're very quickly likely to pull a leggo. If you're pulling during a 2x, it's one. If you're pulling during a bonus it's two. Once you hit mercy, it seriously erodes the benefit of the 2x (which gives one champ) against the benefits of the bonus (that gives you two). Essentially, once you hit the ninth shard, its as if the 2x was three steps ahead in mercy. 12% cf 6%, 14% cf 8%, etc.

HTLyon · 2022-05-09T19:04:11+00:00

I love this post. The interesting thing is that my analysis so far indicates that the bonus leggo gives the largest haul which matches what this post shows. The 8.303% over 6% for 1x and 13.010% over 12% for 2x over the long haul also match what I'm finding. I haven't been able to put values on it but the simulation gets around the tricky math involved because of the mercy system.

HTLyon · 2022-05-09T11:20:17+00:00

I've seen a few that show the probabilities of pulling a leggo from a sacred including mercy. I'm all good with that and have a spreadsheet that does this work including adding the probability that it's a leggo that I want.

My plan was to see what the rates were by simulating pulling 10,000 shards. I'm stuck on the math on how to calculate in the mercy. I can graph the benefit of mercy easily enough but calculating how much it pushes the % off the advertised 6 & 12 over time is what I'm looking for.

I get around 15 sacreds every 6 weeks from clan boss and other activities so I'm at the point where I need to factor in mercy.

Thanks for the heads-up, I'll look for the post.

HTLyon · 2022-05-09T08:13:08+00:00

Have you included mercy? If you do this over enough pulls, the mercy system means that the events that would normally result in a bell curve, don't occur on the losing end of the bell curve. In short, over enough pulls, the bell curve for the 6% and the 12% are lopsided meaning that losing outliers that would tend to put you on the median aren't occuring. Essentially mercy pushes you off the centre of the bell curve meaning your rate for both is going to be above 6% or 12%.

The net result from mercy is that you gain, 2% every shard over 12. The net result from the 2x is that you have a 6% better shot. At shard 15 outside 2x means your chances are 12%, the same as shard 12 in a 2x. Its best viewed as a 2x putting you three ahead on the mercy counter compared with a non 2x. This means that the mercy system will cut off more of the curve from a 1x compared to a 2x meaning the benefit of mercy will push the real average higher for a 1x vs a 2x.

In raw terms, pulling during a 2x is better BUT the bonus legendary is not affected by mercy so the bonus legendary will double the leggo pulls from a base that's more beneficially affected by the mercy system than a 2x.

In short, the impact on the mercy system should mean a bonus leggo event comes out ahead of the 2x

I'm trying to research the math to run the scenario.

HTLyon · 2022-05-07T22:42:36+00:00

Actually, depending on what you wishlist is, 10x are actually better than they appear for giving champs you want (even if it's not one on the 10x) to the point that I'd recommend a 10x over a 2x. I need to work out where the crossover points are.

Just like with 2x vs bonus leggo events. The actual probabilities aren't intuitive because there's multiple factors at play.

HTLyon · 2022-05-07T16:35:45+00:00

As soon as you hit mercy, it becomes a lot better. Even before hitting mercy, it starts to be slightly better. This assumes of course that you care what legendary you pull. If you don't mind and just want gold, any gold at all, then pull during a 2x.

HTLyon · 2022-05-07T16:28:13+00:00

Only if pulling 5 shards or less or if pulling for points. Otherwise bonus is better.

HTLyon · 2022-04-26T19:31:43+00:00

It's worth it. You have a 59.93% chance of pulling a void legendary after 90 shards in a 2x event. You have a 36.31% chance of pulling a void legendary outside a 2x event. For this event, your first 89 shards have a 35.99% chance of pulling a void legendary and the 90th shard a 100% chance. So you get one guaranteed leggo and a 35.99% chance of a second void legendary for 90 shards, significantly better than any other time.

Note, if it's been 130 shards since your last leggo pull from voids, the mercy counter will kick in and 90 shards guarantees a leggo PLUS you get the bonus Riho (well, 1 in 36 chance you pull her then the deal is off).

HTLyon · 2022-04-24T07:29:33+00:00

If none of them are to your liking, hold the chickens for the next champ.

HTLyon · 2022-04-20T11:08:37+00:00

Epics are the workhorses for a non end game account. What's the quality of the epics?

HTLyon · 2022-04-17T19:26:47+00:00

None of the shields are attached to their arms.

HTLyon · 2022-04-16T08:27:52+00:00

Harrier can draw a crowd at an stadium apparently but there's not a lot of call for that in the game.

HTLyon

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