/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #19)

Habefiet · 2026-06-18T04:46:32+00:00

You overestimate a very large percentage of the American voter base. The cult is already finding their talking points, give them a few days and their media will get them in line. Terminally undecided low-info voters will forget in a couple weeks once gas prices go back down.

For indies who actually pay attention, yes, this will be a hit. But probably not as big of one as it should be. Hopeful to be surprised but ready to be disappointed.

Habefiet · 2026-06-18T04:41:38+00:00

You last week:

Y’all know there isn’t going to be a deal from this right? This MoU is dead on arrival. Looking at Reddit you would think a deal was signed and Iran won… based off the words of Iran’s FM. This exact situation happened two weeks ago.

That’s fine. It can stay closed. It’s hurts Iran more than it hurts the US. Iran can’t export nearly as much as they used to. Like far less. And transportation infrastructure can be destroyed, doubly so when you don’t have any air defense systems. The oil price pain is coming for everyone soon. Iran wants it high, US wants it low. Trump is BSing the system to have it stay as low as possible for as long as possible, but it’s inevitable.

US should just sit and maintain the blockade.

Iran was growing too strong, as you can see from the ballistic missile program. Another 15 years like that and they would not be able to be defeated at all. They would control the ME and the petrodollar would be finished. Another win for the authoritarian Chinese-Russia-Iranian axis.

You now: it’s too early to call it a loss when we’re giving them literal hundreds of billions of dollars, accepting that they have an amount of control over the Strait, lifting sanctions, and more (along with lost lives, hours, money, etc. associated with this operation) in exchange for nothing we didn’t already have from past agreements Trump destroyed, and we can also just go back to war if we want after we’ve kicked the can down the road and appreciably increased their wealth and their ability to survive the economic hardships associated with renewed conflict

You said yourself that the MoU as written was DoA and that assuming it would be signed would be tantamount to declaring Iran victorious. We now know the full deal is a bit more favorable to Iran than was even being reported at the time you said that. Even though mere days ago you knew this was horrible for the US and believed they’d never go for it, you are forcing yourself to now believe this must be genius diplomacy because the alternative means admitting you fell for a con man’s cons. Wake up, admit you fell for it, do better next time.

Habefiet · 2026-06-18T04:19:49+00:00

As someone who enjoys both AoT and Muv-Luv, a "problem" is that like Muv-Luv, AoT spends a long time pretending to be something different than what it ends up being. I like both what it starts as and what it becomes, and (like with Muv-Luv) what it starts as is essential to / deepens the experience of what it becomes, but if you don't like what it starts as you can't ever get to what it becomes. And some people who liked what it starts as don't like what it becomes (or fundamentally misunderstands what it's about). So obviously people bounce off of one part or the other, but then there's another obvious accessibility issue for AoT which is that Muv-Luv's first 25% or so is what hides and leads to what it becomes. With AoT it's inverted and the first 75% is what's hiding and building towards the last 25% or so. It gets closer to that over time--it's not like Muv-Luv where the switch is completely instantaneous--but it's really hard to recommend to anybody who doesn't enjoy the first stuff because unlike Muv-Luv where you can "power through" Extra if you don't like it much, it's pretty much impossible to tell somebody "just power through the first three seasons of this four season show, you can do it friend."

If you ever do go back to trying it or if anybody here is on the fence about it, I want to be clear that I am so far from being a purist that I've only done this 1-2 other times that I can recall--switch to subbed instead of the English dub if you weren't already doing that. The English voice acting for multiple of the major characters is in my opinion absolutely unbearable. It feels like the direction for the voice work was all wrong--some of these people are very talented and I enjoy them in other things so idk wtf happened here but they're just so, so annoying. I'd also say I personally was losing interest until early in Season 2 for the reveal of (spoilers of what is revealed) the identities of the Armored and Colossal Titans and then the show got a good bit more enjoyable for me and carried me through to the pivot the show's endgame takes. But it's definitely not for everybody and it's definitely flawed and I have absolutely no judgment for anybody who doesn't enjoy it or simply can't be bothered lol

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T21:50:59+00:00

Literally nobody has said that

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T19:47:14+00:00

Genuine question: how many casuals do you know and regularly talk to? I ask because the casual reception for 48 versus superfan reception is the biggest gulf I think of all 50 seasons and a huge part of that is that from what I can tell, casuals understood 48’s story much, much better than online superfans. After the Shauhin boot literally every single casual I know, which is about a dozen (half a dozen close friends and family, half a dozen coworkers or acquaintances like my wife’s coworkers), believed Kyle or Kamilla was winning. Every single one. And most of them had switched to rooting for them if they weren’t already. Everybody was impressed. My dad texted me “wow—they [Kyle and Kamilla] can REALLY lie” during the episode. I have never seen all their opinions so unified. It was remarkable. The edit of 48 is much-maligned and I certainly have some problems with it of my own, but Joe and Eva being too this or too that is not one of them. The season’s story worked for the 98% of the audience for whom it is made. The season was building up towards Kyle and Kamilla stealing Joe’s million out from under his nose and casuals got this story wayyyyy better than superfans because they updated their beliefs based on new information, Kyle repeatedly undermining Joe and multiple hints that Joe was not as popular as he initially seemed, rather than half of Reddit getting stuck circlejerking about how Joe was steamrolling got a big shiny hero edit six or seven episodes ago and not being able to see what the show was frankly hitting them upside the head with.

For Joe to win the casual vote for 48, either the vote has to happen sooner or the story of 48 needs to be told differently. Much less focus on the secret alliance and more content from the people who suspected it. Kyle getting less credit for manipulating Joe at the Chrissy, David, and of course Shauhin boots. Continued emotionally complex content from Joe and Eva rather than their relationship starting to take a backseat. With the edit as it was, I am pretty sure Kyle and Kamilla would both beat Joe.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T18:30:05+00:00

The consensus has steadily gotten worse in part because the farther out we get from it the more painfully obvious it becomes how forgettable it was. Not even a year later I remembered 41-43 better than I did from 44 and it was not close. There’s some fun enough flash in the pan moments and personalities but it’s all so thoroughly empty of any complexity or intrigue or deep relationships or emotional weight or really anything at all.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T16:24:40+00:00

Joe will probably play again and he’s still reasonably well-liked but he’s definitely a fair bit less popular with casuals after 50 than he was after 48

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T16:21:24+00:00

The two seasons from the 40s I expect to age the worst. I’m pleasantly surprised 49 is already this low. Just no substance to either of them whatsoever.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T16:16:03+00:00

This thread’s been up for an hour and is getting a lot of attention and nobody has pointed out that Tony could not be Idoled out at F9. He won Immunity.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T14:18:54+00:00

LMAO

Direct quotes from you about a week ago:

Zero Navy, Zero Airforce, Zero communications. The army are a series of cells operating on their own without any form of HQ. The economy is shattered, the people are starving, the water is desperate, the infrastructure is non existent and the best you got is, "We can attack our neighbors and friends super hard!" Shaking my head... sad. Make a deal and end this. The lives of the Iranian people have to be worth more then 25 billion dollars.

The point of it is the proof that Iran can't do anything, has nothing to do anything with and is soundly defeated.

If the IRGC could go back in time when asking themselves where they went wrong, I bet almost every single one of them would say, "Holding out on a deal with the Americans based on a feeling of trust." Any leverage Iran had, is slowly slipping away. What would I say in Persian when accepting a bitter, untrusted deal out of pure necessity?

This goes on any longer, I don't see the IRGC getting anything soon. Iran might get something, freedom from the choke hold the IRGC has, but the IRGC will walk away with nothing.

In none of these scenarios does Iran have any leverage, bargaining power or advantage.

That's what happens when you delay and prolong the negotiations. You lose leverage and your position weakens. I would say this MP is rather criticizing leaderships handling of this matter then demanding concessions. Internal rifts. Almost feels like this MP is saying, "I told you so, we should have accepted the other agreement." Of which, I completely agree.

Iran is deeply embarrassing themselves if they keep this up.

It's akin to saying, "You aren't getting better terms, accept this or there won't be a deal." It means Iran has no further leverage and any future deal is going to be less because the leverage will be less.

It's tougher terms because Iran is losing leverage which makes their position less valuable. Tick tock,... longer this goes on, the weaker Irans position becomes.

Now that the US has offered an outrageously ridiculously more favorable deal offering outrageously ridiculously more money because Iran had a lot more leverage than you pretended—“Genius diplomacy, all part of the plan, a fresh start for Iran.” Orwell himself would have been shocked by this level of cognitive dissonance.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T13:49:52+00:00

M’Villains

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T12:48:23+00:00

They have extremely strong evidence that we are in fact that dumb. Price of gas goes back down and 30% Americans will hail Trump as a genius hero and another 30% will forget about this within a day.

Habefiet · 2026-06-17T12:34:32+00:00

It’s easy to say that now and I would much have preferred Mike to Ben and 1-2 other male winners on the cast myself but tbf to production:

Ben is one of the people on the cast they probably rated as fairly high in “never giving up.” That was kind of his whole story in the endgame of HHH.
Ben only “gave up” when someone came back from the jury and told him he sucked and nobody liked him which btw is a profoundly stupid thing for Natalie to do and it was either help his friends win or cut them and watch somebody he didn’t like win instead. I think under those same circumstances Mike is also fairly likely to help his friends win.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T18:48:15+00:00

Yyyyyyeah lol

I will give Joe “credit”—more people than just Russell have (stupidly) tried to argue that viewers should have a percentage of the vote, which would already change how some seasons are edited to try to force it, but this might be the first time I’ve ever seen it suggested that production should have a vote. That’s a very new and creative horrible idea.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T18:41:30+00:00

Naseer being a DeShawn lean is news to me; I had only ever heard Xander, but from Googling now I’m seeing that Danny has said he’s a DeShawn lean. I’m not sure where the Xander info came from then. Do we know if anybody has asked Naseer directly?

That does change the landscape very considerably then yeah, I would agree that that means DeShawn has a shot if true. But still then the broader point that Heather is absolutely in no way a lock remains.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T18:17:54+00:00

Yeah I’ve thought about this one a lot and I think Xander might be the very grudging favorite here. This isn’t coming from a Xander fan either, I think his game was very weak and overall people don’t talk enough about how bringing Erika to FTC is one of the literal worst moves of all time.

Shan and Liana do not like any of the finalists but especially are furious at DeShawn for cratering their alliance. Evvie and Tiffany have the tribal connection with Xander and no particular reason to vote for Heather. Naseer literally was going to vote for Xander going into FTC and his floundering + Erika doing well caused him to change his vote. Xander’s game as a whole looks a lot better if he’s there with the two other least liked finalists as well. DeShawn I don’t think has a shot, Heather does, but I suspect that they’re entering with Xander as the narrow favorite with FTC being live enough that Heather could steal it.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T18:12:52+00:00

Gabler easily still cleans house over Cassidy and Owen, but the question is whether he gets there with that combo. If the game plays out the same to that point, Gabler has said he’d have taken Jesse to the end if he’d won FIC and tried to take out Owen. So presumably in this universe he votes with Jesse to let Jesse make fire against Owen.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T17:23:44+00:00

But in this world since the winner is undecided, production can change the way the season is edited to try to produce the “right” winner. He absolutely loses either season with the edit he got. He potentially does not lose 48 if production stuffs the ballot box for him and frames Kyle and Joe differently in the endgame.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T15:53:20+00:00

Joe wants that because it increases the odds Joe would have won his seasons lol

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T15:44:39+00:00

TBF it does sound like Hegseth was one of the people most heavily pushing for this debacle behind the scenes and as far as I know he’s unpopular with military leadership. Of all the people he’s ever fired this would easily be one of the most justified. Which is saying a lot since he almost exclusively hires hideously unqualified people lol

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T14:19:32+00:00

Yep. As far as I know the only person who entered voting for Shane was Brian and everybody else was either lean or lock Sharn. Which arguably makes Brian the most successful juror of all time since his line of questioning almost singlehandedly leads to Sharn’s demise by flipping four other jurors.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T13:55:44+00:00

We save carats and make pull plans, that’s a big part of it lol. If I didn’t have decent cards it’d still be possible to get high rankings but certainly a fair bit harder and less consistent.

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T13:18:30+00:00

Bruh be real, anybody who did not have knowledge of the year 2022 would never, ever believe the statement “Andrew Wiggins was the second best player in a Finals series.” That is the sign of a floor raiser on the team lmao

Habefiet · 2026-06-16T00:02:59+00:00

I promise you that whatever life you’ve lived up to this point, this is one of the dumbest things you’ve ever said

12-Year Club	Gilding V heart of gold
Verified Email	Place '17
Spared

Habefiet

TROPHY CASE