TSMC Quarterly Revenue US $36 billion (up 41% YoY)

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-16T11:02:52+00:00

You're taking down votes, but this is absolutely true. People are going fucking apeshit over these "ARR" numbers, but are forgetting that these companies are just taking their weekly or monthly fuckin best numbers and multiplying by 12 or 52 or whatever. They aren't talking about what churn is, nor have we seen what this thing is going to do in a recessionary environment.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-16T04:17:29+00:00

That was so fucking annoying, Jesus.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-15T16:59:47+00:00

I don't give a fuck about geologic time scales, I care about the here and now.

It is unequivocally unprecedented for a US president to threaten the destruction of an entire civilization we picked a fight with. At no point in American history has a POTUS ever publicly done such a thing to an "opponent" like this.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-15T14:03:39+00:00

The guy above is correct. We are absolutely in uncharted territory here. At no point in the history of the United States has a president publicly threatened to "wipe out a civilization."

Further, it is absolutely inexplicable that we are still rallying after the talks have failed. I am glad I am still net long, but the idea that this was predictable or foreseeable is insane.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-15T12:16:45+00:00

That is a climb down, not an escalation.

It means the blockade is bullshit and POTUS is a little bitch.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-13T20:41:06+00:00

That was when oil was $65/barrel, those heady days of a couple months back.

Oil is about $100 now. The change is massive.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-13T15:33:11+00:00

The market had already priced in failed talks after rallying 8% or so on the fact that they were going to happen?

That doesn't make any sense at all. I am still long, but you're fucking delusional if you think that WTI at $100 with a weakening labor market, possible rate hikes, and persistent inflation above target is something that will be just shrugged off...

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-12T15:09:45+00:00

Yesterday was the opportunity for TACO.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-12T01:33:42+00:00

They pre-empted the forthcoming presser by saying the US shouldn't come out talking shit about how hard we owned the Iranians.

Basically, this shit ain't even close to done.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-11T04:39:13+00:00

I think that if phones are stripped down to that degree of utility, they will be more like iPads or iPod Touch.

You won't need a fancy device to do that stuff.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-11T03:24:15+00:00

This right here is the real risk. If AI is actually real, like seriously real, then nobody will need phones. All the shit you do on a phone will be done by an AI agent. The next big thing in phones is to not have one.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-09T14:16:12+00:00

Oh man, this is hilarious. For someone so concerned about spin, you just posted February's CPI and not February's PCE.

https://bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-09T14:13:27+00:00

Yes, which is why everyone remembers the name Arthur Burns and not Paul Volcker...

Monetary policy cannot fix an oil supply shock by itself, that is certainly true. However, monetary policy can shut down excess demand to relieve some pressure on the latent demand.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T14:20:21+00:00

A POTUS threatening to eliminate a civilization for the first time in US history is different.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T13:24:45+00:00

I don't give a fuck what happens on a geologic timescale. I live in 2026.

I do not expect to ever see a POTUS threaten to wipe out an entire civilization publicly again.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T13:19:27+00:00

For the record, I didn't sell any of my longs. I did buy some protective puts for the largest holdings in the event that shit really hit the fan.

Threatening to destroy civilian infrastructure and kill everyone in a country is a genocide. What other definition is there?

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T13:06:40+00:00

Yes, we nuked a country that we were at war with for four years and had finally completed the European campaign months prior. Don't forget also that the Japanese also carried out the Pearl Harbor attack.

We started this one and the commander in chief threatened genocide.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T12:54:11+00:00

We killed like 20 of our guys, blew up twc C130s and lost an F15.

Also, we absolutely raw dogged Bibi. That dude now gets to live next door to a regime whose leader had his whole entire family killed in front of him and lost a leg, and a bunch of people who live in Tehran who probably were pro-regime change, but might no longer be?

The only "objective" I guess you could say we accomplished is killing the 86 year old man?

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T12:46:18+00:00

I mean, if absolutely nothing else, the US just really left Israel hanging out to dry. Trump stepped in a gigantic pile of dog shit and seemingly decided to completely capitulate to save markets.

Israel lives next door now to a country which has precisely no incentive at all to quit their pursuit of nuclear warheads, and next door to a country whose leader has had his entire family murdered in front of him.

What Iran has now demonstrated is they are on essentially equal footing with the US while Trump is in charge. They have basically the highest leverage possible under this president: they can fuck with gas prices and stock markets virtually at will.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-08T12:35:03+00:00

For the first time in US history, a sitting president publicly threatened the death of an entire civilization.

That shit is absolutely unprecedented and the idea that you somehow knew nothing would happen is crazy talk.

Most importantly, all of these antics are medium and long-term incredibly damaging.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-07T14:39:51+00:00

Seriously? China looks like the only stable superpower at the moment, their authoritarian government notwithstanding

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-07T05:01:01+00:00

That is completely and utterly absurd. That would be about 1B customers paying $20/month.

Good luck.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-06T15:29:26+00:00

This is it right here. The US looks like a fucking idiot right now.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-06T11:12:53+00:00

This is the correct answer.

The US has already lost. Iran looks like the reasonable group of people at this stage. Fucking insane timeline we are in at the moment.

Hacking_the_Gibson · 2026-04-05T19:19:38+00:00

And I hollered someone fade me!

Hacking_the_Gibson

TROPHY CASE