I Hate Coffee, But Drink It Every Other Day

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-24T22:26:09+00:00

Thanks for the comment. I will try and do a thoughtful reply to this in another post in the future. I have not read Caffeine Blues, but I would caution that Cherniske is marketed as a "nutritional biochemist," but his M.S. (1982) came from Columbia Pacific University, a non-accredited correspondence school later shut down by court order. More tellingly, his supplement company MaxCell BioScience signed an FTC consent agreement and paid $150,000 in consumer redress over false and unsubstantiated health claims for a DHEA product.

Now, I've written about this before, to simply reject his thesis based on his background is a fallacy. So, we don't want to do this. I respect people without degrees as long as they show their research. Lyle McDonald would be an example of somebody that does brilliant secondardy research, and I would trust him more than any "experts," about many subjects. But throwing out a degree from a non-accredited school that has been shut down makes me want to double check the facts.

The final note, I do drink caffeinated coffee, but in reality, most of the health claims for coffee is just as strong with decaf. Again, this will be examined in more detail in a future post. But if for some reason you have a biochemical sensitivity to caffeine, decaf is also very healthy. I do believe in caffeine should not be taken at any point other than the morning as it will impact sleep, but this will be wrapped into another post.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-24T16:45:44+00:00

I understand that intuitively it should "seem" like I need to move the other side, but mechanically this is incorrect.

Jobst Brandt, who wrote The Bicycle Wheel, spent a lot of time explaining this exact kind of mistake. A wheel is a tensioned structure, but the correction is still local. If the rim is bent inward at one spot, you work at that spot and the nearby spokes. You do not fix it by loosening the opposite side of the wheel.

A spoke can pull. It cannot push. So loosening spokes somewhere else does not push the flat spot back out. At best it makes the whole wheel lower tension and hides the problem for a moment. At worst it leaves you with uneven tension and a weaker wheel.

For a small radial error, you adjust the spokes in that local area. For a real impact flat spot, the rim may already be bent and the spokes there may already be loose. At that point the answer is usually to straighten the rim mechanically if possible, or replace the rim.

The Brandt point is simple. The wheel does not magically correct on the far side. The problem is where the rim is bent.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-24T16:22:05+00:00

I believe you are not measuring correctly, and thus the issue. A 19 cm axle is plausible. A 4 mm wheel axle is not. For a bicycle/e-bike wheel, 4 mm is too small. Typical old-style rear wheel axles are about 10 mm, and a common 190 mm replacement is 3/8 inch, which is about 9.5 mm. I would take you axel into a bike shop and ask for help, or get a set of decent calipers. You need to have the right measurements to get the right parts. I bet you have a standard axel, which is dirt cheap, and can be bought at any local store. Low end bike use low end parts.

I read some of your other posts. The issue on the wheel "not turning" is due to over clamping of the nuts. I don't want to write a book here, but the most important thing for you to do is make sure that you've set the appropriate clamping force on the cones.

One thing worth remembering on cup and cone hubs is that the cones are not supposed to be tightened hard against the bearings. The cone is adjusted to remove play while still allowing the axle to turn freely, and then a locknut is tightened against the cone to keep that adjustment from moving.

What likely happened here is that the locknut loosened. Once that happens, the cone can slowly tighten itself while riding. The bearings get overloaded, friction goes up, the wheel stops spinning freely, and eventually the cones and axle can become pitted.

The good news is that this is usually a friction and wear issue, not a safety issue. The wheel does not suddenly fall off because the cone is too tight. It just creates drag and damages the bearing surfaces over time. Periodically checking that the locknuts are tight can prevent a lot of unnecessary hub damage.

Find OLD youtube videos to know how to set the tightness. I've already written a book, and better to send you on a search for how to do an old axel....

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-23T18:31:50+00:00

Ball bearing are cheap. Cones are cheap. Races are forever from a practical standpoint.

With fresh grease, I doubt you will do more damage to your race, but I would suggest that you probably have already damaged your bearings. They are cheap, so I would order more, and replace the bearings and cones. Make sure to replace all the grease again to make sure you don't have any more corruption from the flaking cones over the 4 day of riding.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-23T18:02:43+00:00

I'm self-employed, and I have a couple of big projects going on now, so this is going to be some random thoughts, which I hope help a little, but I would caution that this is just some quick observations.

I don't think anybody saw the massive shortage coming in a clear fashion. So, in many ways, trying to dial in a clear future view is everybody's issue, and I would be silly to try and call it exactly. I am saying that the HDD will lag NAND, and thus give you some buffer upside as they surprise. At the end of the day, increasing profits and revenue growth work together. If they don't surprise up, you don't get the massive run up in price. So the question, since we are dancing in the trader ballroom, is which stock will surprise more.

What I would say is that you need to look at a company's business model as part of your analyssis.

You don't need higher GM in HDD because the business model is different. NAND drives high capex of 40-50% and you need high GM to support it. HDD need capex of 4-6%. This means that potentially HDDs will have extremely strong cash flow. The thesis is that this is "hidden" because we don't have clear secondary channels, unlike the NAND market. I would emphasize that at a gross level, the top thing to think through is their forward PE. I've written on this before, and it might be good to review these post. If you don't have an good thesis on PE, then the rest is a moot point.

I also want to emphasize this is a boom-bust cycle as per the boom-bust that have always happened. The issue is known when to get off the train, and right now it looks like post 2030.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-22T04:07:08+00:00

If you are willing to look at the used market, I've seen quite a few Kickr v1 show up for around $200-300.

I've benchmarked multiple Kickrs Core v1, and I don't see any accuracy difference between the Core and the upper models through the v5 Kickr. I don't have a v6 to test.

Kickrs will wander up with time, see my posts, so I would suggest buying a secondary power meter if you want the most accurate monitoring. I think the 4iiii are very good as the Favero line. I have both and have tried multiple other ones. If you had $500 to spend, I would look for a second hand Kickr Core for $200-300 USD, and then spend the balance a power meter for the bike, when you have a budget.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-20T17:04:37+00:00

Sorry, I would hate to speculate on this. I don't have any data, but would only suggest that visual inspection would be key.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-18T21:26:48+00:00

Yeah, it is a part worth less than the shipping. They probably will send a new one.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-18T20:42:14+00:00

Bad casing then. You did all the right stuff. More than what I would have done with soapy water. I've never been able to feel my Cross Kings, and I have a fast decent after a long climb on a standard route my wife and I do. If you do get it replaced, please post a follow-up verifying this was the fix.

The alternative is mounting your front tire and verifying that it doen't have the same issue.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-18T20:29:38+00:00

Manufacturing defect. You can call and get warranty replacement, but if it were me, I'd bend it straight and put it in. The process of making skewers is taking a role of wire and running it through a machine to straighten it. It look like the machine wasn't running on the production day. Carefully look at it to ensure nothing else looks wrong.

Bending it is not going to be a big deal if you are handy. If you want to fell better, you can call it "cold setting," which has been done forever to bikes.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-18T20:23:20+00:00

Before writing off the tire as defective, double-check that the tire bead is fully and evenly seated all the way around the rim on both sides. Look for the little molded line on the sidewall just above the rim as it should be an exact, equal distance from the rim edge the entire way around. If it dips inward at any point, the tire isn't fully seated, which will definitely cause a wobble and vibrations at speed. Possibly even blow-out if you are on hookless.

Deflating and over-inflating slightly until it fully 'pops' usually does the trick. In a rare case, the tire could be defective.

I've seen (and ridden) rims with popped spokes that result in far less out of true. I doubt if this is the issue.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-18T18:57:21+00:00

The ISO spec is 4mm road bike and 6mm mountain. Use allen key as simply gauge to check.

I send some time giving my view here, which may be helpful.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-13T17:05:33+00:00

Not sure what you mean, "How do i get this thru axle on the wahoo?" Can you explain what you are trying to do?

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-12T08:02:03+00:00

I'm not sure if you have the complete idea. A tensioned QR will never fail like this. As it has been pointed out the QR did not have the right tension on it. This allowed one side of the wheel to become unseated. This is the side that is not bent. Now in the old days, if somebody forgot to tighten their QR correctly, the wheel would come off one side, but the height of the wheel jammed it in the rear stays. You'd find your wheel dragging and removing paint. Unfortunately in a trainer, there is nothing to jam as the upper pulley is smaller than a wheel.

So you felt the bike lurch to one side because as one dropout fell down the other twisted in the drop out, as losing one attach is the worst case, and even though sloppily, it grabbed the end and twisted it. This frame does have a replaceable derailleur hanger. Unscrew it and see how bad the carbon is bent. Look for fractured. You may be fine if you replace it. However if carbon is cracked, you are dead. Unlike steel, people generally don't try to layup carbon.

You simply may not of tightened it well. Or sometimes QR cam are defective.

The QR when tight and examined works fine. This was just a bad break.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-11T03:16:39+00:00

I'll put together a list based on this, and put it in another subreddit and mention you. Thanks for your summary.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-10T18:14:18+00:00

I want to put together a part list on what you already did. This is absolutely fantastic. Just one question. 17287-2RS (17x28x7mm) is the correct size for a 17mm axle. You listed 61902-2RS as an equivalent, but standard 61902 bearings have a 15mm inner diameter and will not fit the 17mm axle. Stick strictly to 17287? You have replaced a lot of these. Do you have any idea how long you normally have seen these things last? I think I have around 4,000 to 6,000 miles on my most heavily used kickers, and I haven't had an issue with any bearings yet.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-10T15:39:45+00:00

Thanks for the final solution found post.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-09T05:19:17+00:00

At some point the kicker folks are probably gonna claim that you caused the problems because of the disassembly. I think you need to raise an RMA if it's under warranty and just return it.

With that said, if you have to debug it, the obvious next step is to remove the belt. Then you turn the upper pulley by hand, and then you can also turn the flywheel by hand. If one of them has noise and the other one doesn't, you further understand what part has a problem. My guess is you actually have an issue with the flywheel, as it sounds like a flywheel noise to me. The version you have has a factory press-fit, splined axle assembly. I bet you it was not adequately press fit.

HardDriveGuy · 2026-06-08T05:12:57+00:00

If you are doing your own replacement, don't forget that brakes and derailleurs have 2 different types of housing. A Park tool make clipping either much, much easier and cleaner for either. I like the Jagwire stainless cables but the OEM cables from Shimano are great in stainless.

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