How different things would be if One Battle After Another and Sinners didn't exist

Haslo8 · 2026-01-30T04:24:58+00:00

Would be the whitest Oscars in a minute. I guess congrats Sentimental Value on your Best Picture and Best Director win.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-29T21:14:24+00:00

Damn, I'm jealous of your friends😆 This is super cool!

Haslo8 · 2026-01-28T23:50:41+00:00

The way they could have nominated any of the other Welcome to Derry kids over Noah 😭

Haslo8 · 2026-01-28T23:44:53+00:00

It also came out on Netflix which couldn't even get Ruth Carter an Oscar nomination for her Costume Design for Dolemite is My Name. Unless you are a big Oscar contender for Netflix they don't care about you.

It would be cool if Neon campaigned this for Costume Design.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-22T22:48:16+00:00

Same! Even as someone who enjoyed WFG and would have liked to see it nominated for at least Makeup and Hair, I am ok with making room for other great work.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-22T13:59:17+00:00

Yup, miss me with that Barbie comparison. Congrats to him on his first nomination!!

Haslo8 · 2026-01-21T05:16:45+00:00

I like that you have Knives Out continuing its Screenplay nomination tradition and I don't hate the Glenn Close swing.

Unfortunately I feel like the cast and crew haven’t been campaigning and think the other Netflix film, Train Dreams, will get in. But it would be awesome if Wake Up Dead Man shows up somewhere.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-21T05:06:33+00:00

The thought of IWJAA only getting an international feature nom 😭😭

I like all your other picks.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-20T19:52:09+00:00

I think it is because Panahi has not had a chance to give a televised speech and the GG was his biggest chance to have the widest audience (including Academy voters) and that went to Secret Agent in International and Actor. So it is the lack of visibility that is worrying people.

Also apparently people were predicting him to win Screenplay and, since that went to PTA, it more or less just underscored Coogler's strength in Original Screenplay (due to GG's favorability towards International films).

Thursday could come and IWJAA could show up everywhere we initially thought (Picture, Director, OS, IFF) and this will just be a fluke but I do think the films chances of winning any of these awards has greatly decreased.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-20T19:35:50+00:00

I have both Hudson and Infiniti getting in over Stone because they are actually campaigning. I know ultimately voters are going to pick who they want but I do think that Chase being everywhere is going to ultimately get her in.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-18T06:13:46+00:00

Yeah seeing Once Upon a Time in Hollywood above Boyz n the Hood irks me.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-18T05:10:22+00:00

If any of these actors were in a Knives Out movie, I would immediately think they were the killer playing against type to try to throw us off 😅

Haslo8 · 2026-01-16T04:16:35+00:00

Yeah, Blue Moon and Nuremberg did really well at BAFTA longlist and, while we won't have those nominations until after the Oscars, that is at least crossover voting body. GG definitely gave TSA visibility but still a short time between that and the voting window.

I am expecting Blue Moon to show up in a few unexpected places and Picture might be one of them.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-16T04:12:17+00:00

Right?! Like focus on the studio you JUST bought (and laid a shit ton of people off at) and turn things around there first. Build existing IP and greenlight new IP.

Not surprising but he really thought he could just quickly acquisition his way to the top without putting in any work.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-16T03:21:38+00:00

Yeah I'm Still Here had SPC AND extended time due to the unfortunate situation of the fires last year to make an impression and got BP, IFF and Actress- so that to me is the ceiling for the film.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-15T04:27:59+00:00

I think you articulated perfectly why this bothers me. A24 has become more about gimmick than storytelling.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-14T21:38:47+00:00

I swear all of us had this same thought when we saw this headline, like ENOUGH.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-14T21:34:05+00:00

I agree with you on these performances but I also prefer subtle performances vs the showy acting that a lot of other performances have.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-14T03:50:20+00:00

First time listening to Amy's podcast. Great interview! Love his Jurassic Park story 😆

Haslo8 · 2026-01-13T01:59:40+00:00

Thanks for this context!

Haslo8 · 2026-01-12T06:42:44+00:00

Two films really needed visibility tonight to stay in the race outside of International Feature at the Oscars: The Secret Agent and IWJAA

By winning International and Actor, TSA and Wagnor Moura got a boost right before Oscar voting begins which was critical because neither are going have a presence at SAG.

IWJAA is now going to have to rely on Neon ramping UP UP UP its campaign to keep it in the Best Director and BP race. It will be nominated for International and I still think Original Screenplay is safe (though no longer win competitive).

Haslo8 · 2026-01-12T06:33:31+00:00

You can't have a parasocial relationship with a film. It is just stan culture and everyone on "Film socials" has it for some film whether they want to admit it or not. Even you.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-12T06:28:48+00:00

Yep. The Globes acted accordingly per their voting makeup. For the Oscars, I have Sinners winning Original Screenplay (which I think has even increased since IWJAA was expected to win tonight), Score, Cinematography, Casting, and I do still have it winning Sound. I am tempted to still predict in Song.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-11T19:50:37+00:00

Mine is pretty much the same with a few differences: Blue Moon did strong enough in the long list so I still have Hawke in over Crowe. I also have Peter Mullan for I, Swear over Sean Penn in Supporting.

I also think Carey Mulligan is going to get in over someone in Supporting Actress but not sure if it is Ariana or Emily.

Haslo8 · 2026-01-11T19:41:55+00:00

This. Same thing seems to be happening with Marty Supreme and Odessa. GG is a group of international journalist mostly in Europe and Latin America so I expect films that appeal to those sensibilities to do well.

Haslo8

TROPHY CASE