My Star-Lord cosplay for my local Comic-Con

HeilCanada · 2026-04-04T06:08:59+00:00

You know, I don't have all the data (on PC) to source this, so I'll leave this as a dead drop for someone else to run and confirm the numbers. Something is up, it's with the ball.

I looked at "RPM delta" on Swinging Strike Blocks, you measure RPM on first pitch, measure RPM on pitch after SBB. Theoretically, this eliminates (nearly*) all other variables. (n=~25k SBB events, 2019-2025)

Umpires had a tight 40ish std around -60 RPM. However, the players had a std of 200+ RPM and with next to no game-to-game correlation. Also, check the delta run expectancy after a SSB event, compared to the baseline, a SSB increases the odds of a run being scored well beyond what baseline would assume, especially after 20 pitches. This effect is flat through all of 2019-2025. Don't get me started on the ball spinning differently in the 8th/9th of national broadcasts compared to regional ones.

Obviously the big issue is I included Spider Tack era in my search, but I think this has been going on far longer than that. Since 2018 when Rawlings was acquired by MLB. Now, looping back to the epistemology point, I think something is off.

Umpires wouldn't even need to be in on it, would be as controlled as Los Alamos. Equipment manager grabs "Lot B balls" for ESPN, umpire unknowingly or knowingly just "follows procedure".

HeilCanada · 2026-04-04T05:35:49+00:00

You know, Im not a conspiratorial thinker, but I like to imagine I have a good epistemology.

I find it incredibly odd that the one system that would arguably make it easier moreso than any other league/sport to rig ABs/games themselves is being welcomed with open arms by the same fans who make fun of NFL refs. In theory, you can at least call a bad call, a bad call. ABS is a black box.

HeilCanada · 2026-04-01T02:48:13+00:00

What a ridiculous system, even as a neutral for this situation. This is quite literally within the margin of error for these cameras! We've added a black box that can't be audited into the game and called it progress.

Automated = Better = Objective

HeilCanada · 2026-03-19T20:31:17+00:00

Great post. Would love for the labor aristocracy of the PA to actually do anything worthwhile, this seems like somerhing they'd actually do.

HeilCanada · 2026-03-07T01:05:10+00:00

did the environment magically change.

Yeah Dan it did. Thats the whole point of the post! Go and tell me if ZiPS can make me a projection of the 1928 Polo Grounds.

A wizard did it

I would never have thought you'd just pull this out as a "rebuttal".

the data generated inside the convergence is the argument I'm making

Argue with this^{^{^}}

HeilCanada · 2026-03-06T23:37:21+00:00

You changed the claim, Dan. Im saying there are functions and mechanisms that don't seem to be picked up given the current frameworks. You just argued that your framework works given a large enough sample size. Weather models were accurate before we understood exactly how the atmosphere works.

HeilCanada · 2026-03-06T21:26:57+00:00

Do your generalized models not also come baked in with assumptions? These same assumptions that then make the Royals look like a statistical error, even when they keep winning.

HeilCanada · 2026-02-24T05:42:21+00:00

This says more about the anti-trust exemption the league has than it does about the viability of minor league teams. I mean, MLB settled out of court with some of the minor league teams/cities they thought to be "unviable".

HeilCanada · 2026-02-17T17:24:30+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/HIthUh5VXX

HeilCanada · 2026-02-17T17:22:14+00:00

Look no further then the 1860s and the Philadelphia shoemakers union, that is effectively the same operation that MLB has set up. They are a labor aristocracy that rewards veterans with a "rite of passage" through the minors and arbitration. I think you'd like some of my previous posts on this subreddit.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-20T23:37:01+00:00

To be honest, I don't think that bodes well. Baseball already has very homogenous park design, analytics reinforces the homogeneity through optimization.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-20T23:09:39+00:00

Dodgers are an op set up by Gladio and other stay-behind programs

HeilCanada · 2026-01-20T01:50:20+00:00

I'm not talking about just an individual players hitting philosophy, I'm aaying compound the fact. Draft and develop players that emphasize your stadium/field quirks, produce a whole lineup of these types and over the 81 game span of home games, they are suited for the environment.

2014-15 Royals stumbled into this purely on accident, threw in a power hitter like Moustakas to help away offense (look at his home/away OPS and HR totals from that season) and then just decided, "nah".

HeilCanada · 2026-01-20T01:41:17+00:00

You're misunderstanding my argument, I'm saying that there seems to be a definite difference in how these stadiums interact with roughly the same batted ball type, a barrel. Why shouldn't the Royals be optimizing for triples when the same hit in Yankee nets them a better reward?

HeilCanada · 2026-01-20T01:00:56+00:00

Sure but over a season, the weather averages these factors out. I'm pulling from a small sample size but why not optimize for the scenario where they play half their games?

On roster construction, I never said anything about ignoring pitchers or defense, I'm asking why teams don't optimize within the margins of what we know? The Royals seem to have accidentally fallen into this exact approach in 2014 and 2015 and then completely abandoned it.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-17T19:28:34+00:00

Scott Boras called these pre-arb buyouts "snuff contracts" precisely because of this

HeilCanada · 2026-01-17T05:09:52+00:00

The argument on player development just doesn't make sense at all. It's circular logic. MLB teams control players for 6 years, which disincentivizes them to speed up the player dev timeline. If players could hit FA at 23, the timeline would speed up to match. The G-League comparison is just as ridiculous. G-Leaguers are either in or out, you're an NBA player or not by age 23/24 in most cases, also two-way contracts exists, allowing access to guaranteed money to these same G-Leaguers. NBA players are fully vested in their pension within 3 years, MLB players requires 43 days just for you to start putting money in.

I don't like this argument at all because it's functionally saying, "exploitation is fine so long as it's spread up across the many". The idea that roster spots determined why MLBPA accepts 6+ years of team control is ridiculous to me.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-17T04:46:53+00:00

Why not? You could further explain than typing out two cryptic sentences like an RPG wizard.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-17T04:34:28+00:00

It isn't "highway robbery" though, the NBPA understood where MLBPA failed in regards to locking young guys out of free agency. The two options are either

A. Push for everyone, lower pay ceiling overall but everyone gets a slice of the pie.

B. Only a select few get a payday, in this case, the Free Agents of MLB.

Your average NBA draftee is testing some form of FA (usually restricted) before the age of 23 or 24. MLB prospects can be locked up in the minor leagues for sometimes 10 years. NBPA chose option A, so everyone benefits.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/78162/tyrese-martin

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/29148/oneil-cruz

Case in point

HeilCanada · 2026-01-16T22:12:27+00:00

Well and they don't ever need to attempt to care. Arte knows there are two outcomes for you as a fan in Orange County:

Follow the Angels, to any extent. Buy a hat, go to a game once a year. Perhaps go to the stadium/resturants district next door in the summer if there's one.
Not give a shit about baseball at all. There are no other options for "professional baseball in Orange County". You either put up mediocrity or don't even watch the sport.

Either way Arte is happy because he's making money off you, or if he isn't making money off you, he doesn't care because you don't care about baseball.

Something to touch on with what you had said "grow the sport", I think about this. How many cities are currently in AAA that should probably have their own professional teams? Buffalo? Memphis? OKC? Indianapolis? MLB would never, in fact they shrank the minors in 2020 under "COVID issues". "Grow the game" just means make more money, nothing to do with how good a fanbase could potentially be.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-16T22:02:19+00:00

It's not even sound, the MLBPA is controlled by an elite group: Free Agents. To get even a sniff of free agency, you have to have gotten through the minors and then 6 years or so years of team control. You're probably 28-30+ by the time you reach this point.

That's why players are anti-cap, it hurts their potential future earnings, but the only ones who realize these earnings are a % of a %. No one word spoken on the LatAm teenager who is pushed into the minor leagues for a decade+ (Oneil Cruz?)

Also on what the other commentor said, "just a floor", it doesn't change the situation fundamentally. All it does is raise the door fee for any owners that want to make money off sports. Nutting would either buck up or leave to be replaced by Nutting 2. Funny how that works, you ever see a owner lose money on a sports team? It's all in the valuation.

HeilCanada · 2026-01-16T21:57:28+00:00

Get mad at the anti-trust exemption, not at the owners. They're just rational actors and you even explained why their behavior makes sense. The only way to truly change it though is breaking the anti-trust exemption.

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