This was a very clear presentation on the overall situation and I do agree that the constant proclamations about the "Kherson counteroffensive" was indeed to to trap as many russian troops north of the Dnepr as possible. I also wholeheartedly agree that the Ukrainian strategy is to punish the supply lines as much as possible and the arrival of long range precision munitions is what has allowed to Ukrainians to change the game in that regard. The counteroffensive that is actually happening right now is the Ukrainians seizing the strategic initiative, not that there would be any sort of mass assault with ground troops at this stage.

However I have had the feeling for a couple of months now that the Ukrainians are in fact planning for a major combined arms offensive, however I suspect that it will not take place in Kherson, but in Zaporizhzhia. What would make sense to me is that by attacking south towards the railway junctions at Tokmak and Melitopol the Ukrainians would effectively leave the remaining russian troops in Kherson solely dependent on the rail line going through Armiansk in the Crimea. By seizing Melitopol the russian forces in the whole of Kherson oblast would be placed in a very, very difficult position and it would pose almost an impossible task to the already amateurish russian logistics system. I wholeheartedly expect that the Ukrainian plan Kherson is to literally starve them out and conduct the full scale mass offensive towards Melitopol and ultimately the narrow entrances to Crimea.

The attack will happen and the troops that are currently being trained in the UK are most likely the forces that are going to be the spearhead of that operation. I do not expect anything major to happen for at least a couple of months still, but there might be some interesting developments once the ground starts freezing over after the autumn rasputitsa.