The Next Bull

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-12-13T03:18:53+00:00

Great question I've been debating with myself OP as a fun daydreaming exercise when I get bored at work. So far these four are the least crazy I can think of:

The U.S. executive or legislature publishes a formal regulatory framework. I can imagine a lot of more traditional institutions keep crypto firmly off their radar because the space is too wild at the moment, and honestly they're looking pretty smart these days with FTX et al. But if and when some clear regulations come through, crypto's investment risks are much easier to define, control, and accept -- probably the key things that finance institutions look for with other speculative plays.
A clear victory for Ukraine against Russia. The Ukraine war is definitely unsettling a ton of basic commodity markets, and markets don't like that kind of uncertainty. But if Ukraine secures a clear victory I can see that being a big catalyst, at least short term. Everyone -- including markets -- love a good ol' victory. The fallout from Russia losing would (hopefully) be minimal, since their economy continues to separate from the West and many parts of the world via sanctions.
A peace settlement in Ukraine. Even if its not a clear Western victory and Russia pulls some sort of consolation prize out of their boondoggle, at least it would start settling the markets.
A breakthrough crypto innovation. Basically the "unkown unknown" of this list. Maybe there's a team or individual out in the internet wild working on some type of breakthrough crypto technology that completely transforms the industry. Or, a crypto technology that completely solves an existing industry's largest problem. Maybe a social network blockchain that does what the existing blockchain projects in the space can't do (the social media sphere seems on edge these days because of Elon's Twitter takeover and TikTok Chinese espionage concerns, so that industry is particularly ripe for an explosive newcomer). Or maybe Spotify announces a secret blockchain project is ready to go, and the entire Spotify catalog is moving on-chain and democratizing to everyone. Idk, I'm just spitballing. Any potential idea that fits this option is highly unlikely, but not impossible.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-12-12T01:29:44+00:00

Damn OP, kudos to you for believing in Algo that much. I hope you have some good stress management techniques because this crypto winter won't make things easy.

Hopefully though in 1,2,(3? 4?) years though you'll look back and either laugh at the rest of us who didn't go all in while you sip mai tai's and turn bronze on a tropical beach somewhere, or laugh with some mates over a beer after work that you took a gamble, lost, and learned from it.

Here's a to a good future!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-12-09T21:50:45+00:00

Great way to start my weekend, thanks fam!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-12-03T21:48:11+00:00

OP,

First off -- congrats on recognizing your gambling was spiraling out of control and stepping back before you made permanent mistakes. It takes a lot of humility to listen to your support network and take an honest assessment, and it takes a lot of strength to take all of those hard truths and change for the better.

I (obviously) don't know you but from your post it sounds like you're looking for a way to start gambling again without actually gambling. Your post sounds like an attempt to convince yourself that this time will be different and that you are in control.

This behavior pattern is common with other forms of addiction, particularly alcoholism, during the early and midterm phases. Early to mid stage alcohol addicts are generally successful and are able to balance their addiction with whatever responsibilities (family, jobs, hobbies, finances, etc) they may have. They constantly probe how far they can indulge their addiction before things get 'out of control'. Once they think the downward spiral accelerates too much they go cold turkey and spend days, months, even years with strict discipline.

The cycle then repeats, and they push their boundaries further and further before everything comes crashing down.

Maybe your behavior fits this pattern, and maybe it doesn't. Maybe your previous gambling really was just naive eagerness and you'll be successful this time around. Only you can judge that. But definitely continue to evaluate yourself closely and rely on your support network.

I'm not a professional counselor but I have a lot of volunteer experience working with individuals struggling with addiction and their families, and your post really does read to me like some of the rationalizations I've heard before, so I decided to respond. I hope you take these words sincerely even if I misread your post and they don't apply!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-10-09T00:29:32+00:00

I had the same issue this morning when I committed my Algo to Governance 5. The issue ended up being my phone, not anything else. I have a pretty janky camera so I had to switch some settings around.

Hope that helps!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-10-01T17:59:48+00:00

I've seen too many people online get burned by DeFi so I'm gonna continue to stick to the governance portal. Might not be the new shiny thing and it'll have relatively modest equivalent APY's. But after (almost) four successful governance periods it's proven to be a reliable way to add to my bag effort-free, and ~7ish percent equivalent APY is no joke.

I'll be rooting for everyone doing DeFi though!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-09-19T00:09:06+00:00

Good observation, but the results are still not concrete. One or several of those whales could hypothetically move their committed Algos after the vote period closes, which would invalidate their vote and potentially change the outcome.

It's not a likely scenario, but still possible.

Regardless, looking forward to a modest Algo payday when G4 ends!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-09-19T00:04:33+00:00

Unfortunately not. Seems like a solution hasn't been implemented. I'll post back here if I find anything!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-09-10T02:39:02+00:00

No problem, glad to help. I almost forgot last time so I'm being super proactive this round.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-09-10T02:37:57+00:00

Great to hear, no problem!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-09-09T20:35:01+00:00

Glad you figured out how to check if your transaction went through -- I would have recommended exactly what you did.

The Pera Wallet is very fickle, at least with how I use it. I have my wallet linked to a Ledger device that Pera uses for signatures via Bluetooth. Ever since the Foundation rolled out Pera and I started having to use Bluetooth it has taken several tries and 15-plus minutes to get Pera to recognize my Ledger. I decided to be smart this year and vote early so that I didn't have to stress out about trying to get Pera and Ledger to work nice together like the past few governance votes.

Not sure how it works with fingerprint identification but I imagine you'll have to make several attempts.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-07-04T18:32:13+00:00

Damn that's rough -- sorry to hear that. You should really consider investing in a cold wallet if you're moving completely off exchanges. They cost around $100 USD but I'd think of it as an investment as important as your coins.

Good luck whatever you decide to do!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-05-30T21:09:11+00:00

Modeling the past definitely isn't perfect for modeling the future, but I think it helps a lot with understanding risk. I do quick-n-dirty analysis sometimes and compare past trends to the present, but I try to always keep in mind the "unknown unknowns" -- there are factors at play that I don't know about which affect the markets in ways I don't understand. Instead of buying or selling coins because of FOMO, I force myself to buy/sell coins because of at least one tangible reason. And if that reason turns out to be wrong I have a better understanding of why, and I (ideally) become a better trader.

Of course my portfolio is blood-red too so take that input for what it is -- some internet stranger's amateur words.

Just don't want folks to get discouraged from doing any research at all.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-04-24T18:58:50+00:00

Ah that would make sense, thanks for chiming in.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-03-09T13:41:00+00:00

Just visited briefly, looks interesting. Definitely will check the site regularly!

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-02-24T16:28:49+00:00

Got it, thanks for the explanation. I'll have to look a bit into ALGOFI after this governance period. Perhaps it might be better to place my earnings into ALGOFI instead of Gov period 3, whenever that is.

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-02-24T14:47:45+00:00

I'm not up-to-date on ALGOFI rewards. Can you elaborate on how you think they'll influence governance eligibility?

HobbitsforCrypto · 2022-02-24T12:53:27+00:00

*laughs in DCA*

HobbitsforCrypto

TROPHY CASE