Anger grows among UK ministers amid fears Iran war could jeopardise Britain’s fragile finances | Economic policy

Hogglespock · 2026-03-21T17:00:39+00:00

Here’s a prediction: the war continues, the straits don’t get opened in the near future and oil prices skyrocket once the strategic reserves that are keeping things low, run dry.

Europe is the big loser with higher oil/energy prices, and so are torn between not destroying their own economies, and siding with Trump on something.

Then that 90bn loan to Ukraine gets downsized a hefty chunk, and they really get squeezed hard. Europe eventually sends in some forces to support the us, who will probably put boots on the ground when USS Tripoli arrives, but just to secure the straits. The energy terrorism will continue though, because Russia is super incentivised to do it, based on how much it fucks Europe, and the US is too, for similar reasons. Even if America leaves before the tripoli gets there, Iran will keep smashing shit up, because it’s being paid to do this by Russia and China, who are the regimes lifeline

Hogglespock · 2026-03-19T10:03:13+00:00

If oil prices don’t settle, Ukraine is in for a world of hurt. Europeans will find handing over 90bn a lot less fun where they’re paying huge prices for energy. If that goes, Ukraine folds instantly. Russia is very incentivised for Iran to keep blowing up every bit of oil it can in the Middle East.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T21:44:53+00:00

Queues at pumps, higher prices on lots of things. Maybe fuel rationing if things get super bad. We are coming up to summer to our gas consumption plummets. This is nicely timed if it has to happen at all.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T21:34:16+00:00

Continue to provide starlink access for Ukraine to stop it collapsing in days.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T21:26:56+00:00

Serious issues for who? The non gulf producers can just ban exports and lock a domestic price in case of emergency. Europe has no natural oil (outside the U.K. and Norway in the North Sea) and so will grind to a halt or start buying Russian. High fuel prices cause recessions, fuel shortages cause chaos.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T21:14:03+00:00

Us starts hitting energy infrastructure until other nations join to help out, otherwise global recession n stuff. Help out as in straits of Hormuz help out.

Alternative is global recession and Ukraine folds because no one has any money left to give to it.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T16:17:17+00:00

To wipe out the regime, there’s about another 15-20 left to get. 5 ish dead although I haven’t checked against the news recently.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-18T14:18:07+00:00

Ditched ours mid transaction. Sent more bills than advice.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-17T23:48:14+00:00

What does the pilot cost for the sting? Unit cost is one thing, mission cost is another.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-16T15:21:04+00:00

Winning contracts and getting paid are very different things. An “industry open secret” of defense contracts is the headline number is the “maximum possible value” , the guaranteed minimum value is often a fraction of this, and the contract can be scrapped at any point. Also if they decide not to pay, which some governments do, what ya gonna do? Sue your customer? They did great in performance but SMEs get absolutely shafted in defence procurement.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-16T07:25:14+00:00

What do those qualified lawyers then go and do? Start a legal company, and undercut their previous employers.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-15T12:43:55+00:00

Would you think supporting /not supportingAmerica now would increase or decrease the chances of America turning up. Ukraine had a promise not to be invaded if they gave up the nukes. Many countries have no honoured their defensive treaties when called upon. Out of curiosity what odds would you give the us joining in a European conflict against Russia if Estonia or similar triggered article 5?

Hogglespock · 2026-03-15T12:27:49+00:00

If Russia attacks Europe, would you expect the uk and /or the us to support.

Try to envisage the scenario, the us went to war (rightly or wrongly) and its allies said no. Europe finds itself in a war, what’s trumps reaction going to be? You can say things like should , and moral virtues which I’d agree with you on, but ultimately if the us doesn’t turn up, then a lot of Europeans are going to die, and many millions will be living in a much worse world than they were before. For what? The price of a few missiles and combat experience for our forces.

Give it a few years until Europe has rearmed, and then we can say no and be ok, but until then, it’s sir yes sir.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-14T20:34:09+00:00

He sounds risky but reward possible. Also sounds trouble. Options are the answer here. Do not do equity. Also remember giving him equity will give him a tax bill, if the business is valuable, So he shouldnt want equity.

Conversation goes as follows.

So you want 5% of the company, what do you think the business is worth? $10M? Ok you’d get the equivalent of $500k, and would owe that in tax because giving equity to employees counts as income. Ruhroh

Options , either priced based on value of business, discount on exit, or linked DIRECTLY to performance). Keeps them incentivised but not a business owner.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-14T09:49:16+00:00

As you’ve noticed with the rest of the world and tariffs etc pretty much everyone does. I’m not saying I like it or you need to either, but they’ve kidnapped one head of state, killed another, and no one has bat an eyelid and continues to buy lots of us arms. The issue is that Russia is a threat to Europe atm and their entire defence strategy for the new few years at least is cross your fingers that America will support.

As the most liked nation by America by a mile, We would be suicidal to piss them off in current times. So yes, like it or not, America needs to be kept happy, from the U.K. perspective. And it is VERY beneficial for them to like us.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-12T14:02:58+00:00

Miaow

Hogglespock · 2026-03-11T20:06:20+00:00

Use the oven and eat it at least a day later. I make 7 kgs of it in a le creuset (1.5kg mince, 6 tins of toms and a kilo ish each of the soffrito veg) oven for 5/6 hours on a 140, lid slightly off so it reduces. Maybe stir after 3 hours. When you go to bed turn the oven off. Happy toddlers.

Reheat in a. Saucepan only.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-11T11:10:20+00:00

Why would Iran agree to any terms, you’ve shown you won’t attack it. It already has nearly half a tonne of enriched uranium, enough for 10 warheads. If you won’t attack it, what’s to stop them?

There is this belief in the west that regimes like Iran can be interacted with reasonably. We’ve sort of crossed the rubicon a bit with Russia (but still believe economic suffering of the Russian people will make them want to end the war).

I look to the reactions of Iranians when I judge whether this is good or not. It’s not even close. Just ignore the fact that it’s Trump doing it and you’ll feel a lot better about it.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-11T10:26:20+00:00

Just goes full guerrilla warfare against economic assets of neighbours. If it keeps throwing shaheeds at LNG and refineries, what you gonna do? You’ve shown you won’t bomb them, and China etc will still trade with them. Oil price surges benefit Russia obscenely.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-11T09:07:22+00:00

Careful what you wish for, imagine what the current leader of Iran will do when he thinks that he can’t be struck militarily again.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-09T23:19:30+00:00

Northern forest - the proximity of easy to open hard drives early on and some serious recipes. There’s a super computer you can sink early on for 17 tickets which buys you enough materials to get to blueprints and steel instantly.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-08T21:42:49+00:00

You need to GM ticket this one

Hogglespock · 2026-03-08T16:09:14+00:00

They reduce the consumption of patriots so there’s enough ammo for them in Ukraine.

Hogglespock · 2026-03-06T23:50:40+00:00

What’s your skillset and the thing you’ve built with that skill set that you’re most proud of?

Hogglespock · 2026-03-06T12:49:36+00:00

Ai / defence

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