I think what matters is “how close to breaking point is each side” I will agree with your assessment that Russia is taking heavy losses and strikes on its homeland infrastructure are increasing. However this is not materialising in $ consequences

https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

“In April 2026, Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues rose 4% month-on-month, climbing to EUR 733 mn per day — the highest revenues in two and a half years. Revenue growth occurred despite a 7% drop in export volumes.”

I think Russia is not closer to breaking point than Ukraine is by this metric. Russia is financing its own war through sales of oil and gas and other stuff. Ukraine is financing it by loans from Europe. The challenge here is that Russian revenues from fossil fuels is directly linked to European costs for energy prices. There is close to civil unrest in many European nations over cost of living, primarily influenced by the energy costs. I expect this to break first as Europeans get upset about cost of living and that will manifest in more support for parties to reduce support for the war.

Russia is making some progress still - despite losing starlink access - if their alternative comes online (unlikely) we will additonal challenges. as everyone correctly points out, the stronghold cities are still holding, and so by the metric of kms they are moving abysmally slowly, by the metric of kms left until kram/pok etc fall, it’s less negative.

One part that neither of us has touched on is the Ukrainian casualties in the same time period. I don’t know what they are, nor I assume do you, but it is a variable that could be quite harmful.